•MSA outperforms more frequently than all other methods.•GMDH is the most stable in terms of outperforming random walk (75% of cases).•The results show better forecasting performance of longer period ...data.•The market has been less efficient during Covid-19.
This paper investigates the forecasting performance for credit default swap (CDS) spreads by Support Vector Machines (SVM), Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Markov switching autoregression (MSA) for daily CDS spreads of the 513 leading US companies, in the period 2009–2020. The goal of this study is to test the forecasting performance of these methods before and during the Covid-19 pandemic and to check whether there are changes in the market efficiency. MSA outperforms all other methods most frequently. GMDH breaks the efficient market hypothesis more frequently (75%) than other methods. The change of the relative predictability during Covid-19 is small with some increase of the advantage of the investigated methods over a benchmark. We find that the market has been less efficient during Covid-19, however, there are no huge differences in prediction performances before and during the Covid-19 period.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of wine tourism on rural destination development. Consequently, this study attempts to develop contemporary insights on this under-researched ...area such as residents’ perceptions of wine tourism and its impact on the rural destination development.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the authors used a structured survey questionnaire from a random sample of 318 respondents based on the Fruška Gora Mountain in Serbia. Research also used structural equational modeling for empirical econometric testing in this data sample. This technique is appropriate for multivariate analysis.
Findings
Personal resident benefit associated with wineries is positively related to resident perceived economic impact (H1) R2=0.624; socio-cultural impact (H2) R2=0.685 and environmental impact (H3) R2=0.716 of wineries on local communities. Looking at the path diagram, the authors concluded that personal resident benefit associated with wineries is strongly related to resident perceived impact of wineries on local communities as regression weights are higher. Other findings relate those residents’ positive perceptions of wine tourism to increases in sales revenue, environmental protection, intrapersonal and interpersonal communication.
Research limitations/implications
The positive attitude of the local population is an essential link of development. Such understanding of residents’ perceptions optimizes destination management in the future and, more importantly, local sustainable development. This has high policy implications.
Originality/value
The present study contributes to the scientific circles by connecting perception research with wine tourism.
This study applies a Markov switching error correction model to describe the single most important real exchange rate (Deutsche mark versus US dollar) over the flexible exchange rates period from ...1973 to 2004. We show an alternative way of modelling non-linear adjustment to the purchasing power parity (PPP) besides standard threshold models. The model merges the two possible sources of non-linearity by additionally allowing the probability of a mean-reverting regime to increase with the distance from PPP. The interest rate differential as an additional determinant of real exchange rate behaviour in a Markov switching framework is introduced in the model. The study finds that the real dollar exchange rate during the post-Bretton Woods era is well described by a Markov switching error correction model with (PPP) as long-run equilibrium. There is one mean reversion regime where PPP and the interest parity condition are valid. Contrary, the second regime is characterised by persistent mean aversion, where a regime switch does not become more likely with increasing distance from PPP. The unconditional half-life of shocks is about 1.5 years.
•Correlation between returns of money market instruments in the EU and US is not stable.•Correlation rises when countries are exposed to the same external shocks.•During the last five years returns ...on short-term instrument have not become more interdependent.•There is no advantages in diversifications investing only in US or EU treasuries.•GARCH (2,1) turns to be more effective for time series with longer memory.
This research analyse the US and the EU money markets interdependence from 2004 to 2018. The study explains to what extent the volatility of the chosen money markets instruments in two regions is inter-correlated before, during and after the financial crisis of 2008. We apply the econometric analysis and estimate time-series models of class GARCH to study the historical dynamics of interbank rates and bond returns. The study demonstrates that correlation between returns of analogous money market instruments in the EU and US is not stable over time. We find that correlation rises in periods when countries are exposed to the same external shocks as global financial crisis. Wavelet coherence analysis suggests that investors do not get any advantages of portfolio diversification investing only in US treasuries with different maturities for more than 256 days and do not get any advantages at all investing only in European bonds.
PurposeThe starting premise of this study is that women's empowerment is the goal for self-realization and that the support that comes from local tourism stakeholders represents an adequate base. In ...many rural areas, women have established self-help groups (SHGs), which facilitate the interaction with a wide range of stakeholders. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of SHGs on female entrepreneurship and self-employment in tourism.Design/methodology/approachTo examine the research question, this study adopted a quantitative research that included a sample of 513 women in a less-advanced rural area in Serbia. For the data analysis, the generalized linear regression model (GLM) was used.FindingsAccording to the results, self-employment is the leading goal of women's empowerment.Research limitations/implicationsThe main limitation in the research and the authors’ suggestion for future research is to increase the sample size of female respondents, so examination of their attitudes and role in the travel business in their local settings might reach higher significance. The second issue that the authors would like to point out is a highly local character of our study, so the future research should involve other rural areas in the country and from abroad (e.g. similar undeveloped countryside with noticeable, active women's role in local entrepreneurship).Practical implicationsThe most important practical implications of this paper are twofold: (1) the results of the research have shown that the tourist potential of rural areas can be enhanced through local tourism stakeholders' support; (2) women without professional interest or jobs in rural areas, especially in the areas where the population is traditionally dominated by men (husband/brother/father), have a chance to earn and to be economically more independent. This research can affect future studies to investigate other aspects of empowerment depending on the difference of regions, from one side, and also alternative opportunities for tourism and local development in less-advanced rural areas, from another side.Originality/valueThe study analyzes the tourism potential of the rural areas (which are less advanced and mostly very poor in developing countries, such as Serbia). In this case, there are opportunities to increase employment, social inclusion of women, development of new tourism strategies, implementation of destination marketing, etc. Moreover, it contributes to future research in the field of stakeholders in tourism strategies.
The research deals with the sustainable development of the Serbian and Slovenian countryside, under the influence of tourism progress. The article identifies the main rural tourism competitiveness in ...Serbia and Slovenia, as one of the essential factors of rural development in both countries, analyzing the main contributions and making a series of proposals to guide the future research agenda. The aim of the paper is to clarify around one obviously defined objective—to point out the competitiveness of sustainable rural tourism in typical post-socialist settings. The data for this study were collected using the Integrated Model of Destination Competitiveness to observe Serbian and Slovenian competitiveness in tourism. Determinants were assessed using a survey evaluating four demanding factors and 20 supporting factors, based upon a five-point Likert Scale. The results indicated that the friendliness of residents towards visitors, easy communication between them, together with quality of infrastructure and health facilities show the highest level of statistical correlation. These are the main propositions to start an initiative for the authorities in local communities to actively participate in sustainable rural development. The findings provide tourism stakeholders with relevant respondents’ perceptions pertaining to the tourism development in non-urban areas.
PurposeThe paper introduces a resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises (SIE).Design/methodology/approachThe model is grounded on ...resource-based view on the firm and dynamic capabilities approach. Linear programming technique is used to provide the actual framework to the resource-based model.FindingsThe paper introduces a new resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises. The conceptual model is grounded on resource-based view (RBV) and dynamic capabilities strategy. The RVB of firm and firm strategy is based on the concept of economic rent. Linear programming technique is used to provide the actual framework to the resource-based model. In developing the versatility concept, study suggests a distinct sight regarding resource fungibility. Study classifies resources into multipliable, rentable and expendable resources to increases adequacy of the model. The developed model includes both tangible and intangible assets such as human capital. The survival rate of SIE in the early stages of life cycle is very low due to the competition among SIEs. In this regard, the greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility which is much desirable for the SIE especially in their initial stages of the life cycle. Kelliher and Reinl (2009) argued that micro firms have unique advantage over bigger firms in following term: rate of learning or redeployment of strategy in micro firms is faster than the rate of change in their environment. One very significant feature of the developed resource-based linear programming model is that mathematically the proposed model could easily be transformed into mixed integer or stochastic linear programming models to meet the time variant requirement of small firms especially when it expands its operation.Research limitations/implicationsThe survival rate of SIE in the early stages of life cycle is very low due to the competition among SIEs. In this regard, the greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility which is much desirable for the SIE especially in their initial stages of the life cycle. Kelliher and Reinl (2009) argued that micro firms have unique advantage over bigger firms in following term: rate of learning or redeployment of strategy in micro firms is faster than the rate of change in their environment. One very significant feature of the developed resource-based linear programming model is that mathematically the proposed model could easily be transformed into mixed integer or stochastic linear programming models to meet the time variant requirement of small firms especially when it expands its operation.Originality/valueOne very significant contribution of the present study is that the study develops a new resource-based model for SIE especially for the SIE in the initial stages of the life cycle, to gain competitive advantages. Furthermore, the present study contributes to the existing literature in strategy at least in three senses as mentioned below: 1. further addition of SIE research based on the RBV and dynamic capabilities in the strategy literature 2. in developing the versatility concept, the study suggests a distinct sight regarding resource fungibility and it classifies resources into three categories as follows: multipliable, rentable and expendable resources to increases adequacy of the model. 3. Finally, the study introduces a new resource-based linear programming model for SIE resources allocation. To the best of author’s knowledge, no such similar model is introduced by any previous studies for small firm. The greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility.
This study empirically analyzes time series momentum (TSM) in the European equity market between 2000 & 2020. The study produces additional evidence on TSM where a significant and persistent market ...price anomaly enables investors to earn abnormal returns. To achieve this goal the present study implements a pooled autoregressive model to test the predictability power of European equity indices of future returns. The results indicate that strategies based on TSM are in line with the discussed literature and enable market agents to earn returns above the market (0.71% per month) by using a six-factor model.
Sell‐side analysts' recommendations a value or noise Vukovic, Darko B.; Ugolnikov, Vladislav; Maiti, Moinak
International journal of finance and economics,
April 2021, 2021-04-00, 20210401, Volume:
26, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
The main objective of the paper is to investigate the analysts’ recommendations’ value and to determine on which market the analysts have more predictive power that can be defined as an extent of a ...stock price’s reaction around a particular recommendation what leads to abnormal returns of the security. Such recommendations are significant in decision‐making whether to buy or to sell a particular stock. We observed 1,881 events from 168 companies traded at the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange in a period between January 1, 2016, and April 31, 2019. We used an event study analysis and classical one‐factor market model to determine expected returns for a particular stock in an estimation window. It was found that both American and European Union markets are feasible to be outperformed by the analysts but it is impossible to highlight any of the markets as they behave almost identically around positive, neutral and negative recommendations.
Research background: Institutional investors such as: commercial banks, pension funds, and insurance companies are constantly looking for low-risk stable investment opportunities, whereas one of the ...solutions can be a simulated portfolio. This research takes a look at the incentive to invest in government debt portfolios, as it can outperform the returns of deposit accounts. Purpose of the article: This study considers several classic methods of portfolio constriction and includes the basis of debt instruments that have not been a research topic for a long period of time. At the same time, this paper analyzes the classic methods of modern portfolio theory with a Sharpe ratio as an indicator of efficiency. Methods: The constructed portfolio consists of four elements from different countries: two government obligations and two bond indexes, aiming to employ international diversification. All the data was collected for the period of 12 years in order to represent the consequences of accrued recessions. Findings & Value added: The past two severe financial crises created a higher demand for stable investments, and more investors are ready to compromise a higher return for it. Therefore, the results of this paper represent a simulation of low-risk hedge fund portfolio construction with the use of highly rated debt instruments.
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