Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious ...disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress.
It has been hypothesized that prisons serve as amplifiers of general tuberculosis (TB) epidemics, but there is a paucity of data on this phenomenon and the potential population-level effects of ...prison-focused interventions. This study (1) quantifies the TB risk for prisoners as they traverse incarceration and release, (2) mathematically models the impact of prison-based interventions on TB burden in the general population, and (3) generalizes this model to a wide range of epidemiological contexts.
We obtained individual-level incarceration data for all inmates (n = 42,925) and all reported TB cases (n = 5,643) in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul from 2007 through 2013. We matched individuals between prisoner and TB databases and estimated the incidence of TB from the time of incarceration and the time of prison release using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 130 new TB cases diagnosed during incarceration and 170 among individuals released from prison. During imprisonment, TB rates increased from 111 cases per 100,000 person-years at entry to a maximum of 1,303 per 100,000 person-years at 5.2 years. At release, TB incidence was 229 per 100,000 person-years, which declined to 42 per 100,000 person-years (the average TB incidence in Brazil) after 7 years. We used these data to populate a compartmental model of TB transmission and incarceration to evaluate the effects of various prison-based interventions on the incidence of TB among prisoners and the general population. Annual mass TB screening within Brazilian prisons would reduce TB incidence in prisons by 47.4% (95% Bayesian credible interval BCI, 44.4%-52.5%) and in the general population by 19.4% (95% BCI 17.9%-24.2%). A generalized model demonstrates that prison-based interventions would have maximum effectiveness in reducing community incidence in populations with a high concentration of TB in prisons and greater degrees of mixing between ex-prisoners and community members. Study limitations include our focus on a single Brazilian state and our retrospective use of administrative databases.
Our findings suggest that the prison environment, more so than the prison population itself, drives TB incidence, and targeted interventions within prisons could have a substantial effect on the broader TB epidemic.
Prisons are recognised as high-risk environments for tuberculosis, but there has been little systematic investigation of the global and regional incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis, and its ...determinants, in prisons. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis in incarcerated populations by geographical region.
In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Knowledge, and the LILACS electronic database from Jan 1, 1980, to Nov 15, 2020, for cross-sectional and cohort studies reporting the incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, incidence of tuberculosis, or prevalence of tuberculosis among incarcerated individuals in all geographical regions. We extracted data from individual studies, and calculated pooled estimates of incidence and prevalence through hierarchical Bayesian meta-regression modelling. We also did subgroup analyses by region. Incidence rate ratios between prisons and the general population were calculated by dividing the incidence of tuberculosis in prisons by WHO estimates of the national population-level incidence.
We identified 159 relevant studies; 11 investigated the incidence of M tuberculosis infection (n=16 318), 51 investigated the incidence of tuberculosis (n=1 858 323), and 106 investigated the prevalence of tuberculosis (n=6 727 513) in incarcerated populations. The overall pooled incidence of M tuberculosis infection among prisoners was 15·0 (95% credible interval CrI 3·8–41·6) per 100 person-years. The incidence of tuberculosis (per 100 000 person-years) among prisoners was highest in studies from the WHO African (2190 95% CrI 810–4840 cases) and South-East Asia (1550 240–5300 cases) regions and in South America (970 460–1860 cases), and lowest in North America (30 20–50 cases) and the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region (270 50–880 cases). The prevalence of tuberculosis was greater than 1000 per 100 000 prisoners in all global regions except for North America and the Western Pacific, and highest in the WHO South-East Asia region (1810 95% CrI 670–4000 cases per 100 000 prisoners). The incidence rate ratio between prisons and the general population was much higher in South America (26·9; 95% CrI 17·1–40·1) than in other regions, but was nevertheless higher than ten in the WHO African (12·6; 6·2–22·3), Eastern Mediterranean (15·6; 6·5–32·5), and South-East Asia (11·7; 4·1–27·1) regions.
Globally, people in prison are at high risk of contracting M tuberculosis infection and developing tuberculosis, with consistent disparities between prisons and the general population across regions. Tuberculosis control programmes should prioritise preventive interventions among incarcerated populations.
US National Institutes of Health.
Tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) vector pathogenic trypanosomes (Trypanosoma spp.) in sub-Saharan Africa. These parasites cause human and animal African trypanosomiases, which are debilitating diseases ...that inflict an enormous socio-economic burden on inhabitants of endemic regions. Current disease control strategies rely primarily on treating infected animals and reducing tsetse population densities. However, relevant programs are costly, labor intensive and difficult to sustain. As such, novel strategies aimed at reducing tsetse vector competence require development. Herein we investigated whether Kosakonia cowanii Zambiae (Kco_Z), which confers Anopheles gambiae with resistance to Plasmodium, is able to colonize tsetse and induce a trypanosome refractory phenotype in the fly. Kco_Z established stable infections in tsetse's gut and exhibited no adverse effect on the fly's survival. Flies with established Kco_Z infections in their gut were significantly more refractory to infection with two distinct trypanosome species (T. congolense, 6% infection; T. brucei, 32% infection) than were age-matched flies that did not house the exogenous bacterium (T. congolense, 36% infected; T. brucei, 70% infected). Additionally, 52% of Kco_Z colonized tsetse survived infection with entomopathogenic Serratia marcescens, compared with only 9% of their wild-type counterparts. These parasite and pathogen refractory phenotypes result from the fact that Kco_Z acidifies tsetse's midgut environment, which inhibits trypanosome and Serratia growth and thus infection establishment. Finally, we determined that Kco_Z infection does not impact the fecundity of male or female tsetse, nor the ability of male flies to compete with their wild-type counterparts for mates. We propose that Kco_Z could be used as one component of an integrated strategy aimed at reducing the ability of tsetse to transmit pathogenic trypanosomes.
Recent rises in incident tuberculosis (TB) cases in Paraguay and the increasing concentration of TB within prisons highlight the urgency of targeting strategies to interrupt transmission and prevent ...new infections. However, whether specific cities or carceral institutions play a disproportionate role in transmission remains unknown. We conducted prospective genomic surveillance, sequencing 471 Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex genomes, from inside and outside prisons in Paraguay's two largest urban areas, Asunción and Ciudad del Este, from 2016 to 2021. We found genomic evidence of frequent recent transmission within prisons and transmission linkages spanning prisons and surrounding populations. We identified a signal of frequent M. tuberculosis spread between urban areas and marked recent population size expansion of the three largest genomic transmission clusters. Together, our findings highlight the urgency of strengthening TB control programs to reduce transmission risk within prisons in Paraguay, where incidence was 70 times that outside prisons in 2021.
We use mathematical modelling to examine how microbial strain communities are structured by the host specialisation traits and antigenic relationships of their members. The model is quite general and ...broadly applicable, but we focus on
Borrelia burgdorferi
, the Lyme disease bacterium, transmitted by ticks to mice and birds. In this system, host specialisation driven by the evasion of innate immunity has been linked to multiple niche polymorphism, while antigenic differentiation driven by the evasion of adaptive immunity has been linked to negative frequency dependence. Our model is composed of two host species, one vector, and multiple co-circulating pathogen strains that vary in their host specificity and their antigenic distances from one another. We explore the conditions required to maintain pathogen diversity. We show that the combination of host specificity and antigenic differentiation creates an intricate niche structure. Unequivocal rules that relate the stability of a strain community directly to the trait composition of its members are elusive. However, broad patterns are evident. When antigenic differentiation is weak, stable communities are typically composed entirely of generalists that can exploit either host species equally well. As antigenic differentiation increases, more diverse stable communities emerge, typically around trait compositions of generalists, generalists and very similar specialists, and specialists roughly balanced between the two host species.
Mortality during and after incarceration is poorly understood in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The need to address this knowledge gap is especially urgent in South America, which has the ...fastest growing prison population in the world. In Brazil, insufficient data have precluded our understanding of all-cause and cause-specific mortality during and after incarceration. We linked incarceration and mortality databases for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul to obtain a retrospective cohort of 114,751 individuals with recent incarceration. Between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2018, we identified 3,127 deaths of individuals with recent incarceration (705 in detention and 2,422 following release). We analyzed age-standardized, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality rates among individuals detained in different facility types and following release, compared to non-incarcerated residents. We additionally modeled mortality rates over time during and after incarceration for all causes of death, violence, or suicide. Deaths in custody were 2.2 times the number reported by the national prison administration (n = 317). Incarcerated men and boys experienced elevated mortality, compared with the non-incarcerated population, due to increased risk of death from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases, with the highest standardized incidence rate ratio (IRR) in semi-open prisons (2.4; 95% confidence interval CI: 2.0 to 2.8), police stations (3.1; 95% CI: 2.5 to 3.9), and youth detention (8.1; 95% CI: 5.9 to 10.8). Incarcerated women experienced increased mortality from suicide (IRR = 6.0, 95% CI: 1.2 to 17.7) and communicable diseases (IRR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1 to 5.0). Following release from prison, mortality was markedly elevated for men (IRR = 3.0; 95% CI: 2.8 to 3.1) and women (IRR = 2.4; 95% CI: 2.1 to 2.9). The risk of violent death and suicide was highest immediately post-release and declined over time; however, all-cause mortality remained elevated 8 years post-release. The limitations of this study include inability to establish causality, uncertain reliability of data during incarceration, and underestimation of mortality rates due to imperfect database linkage. Incarcerated individuals in Brazil experienced increased mortality from violence, suicide, and communicable diseases. Mortality was heightened following release for all leading causes of death, with particularly high risk of early violent death and elevated all-cause mortality up to 8 years post-release. These disparities may have been underrecognized in Brazil due to underreporting and insufficient data.
Importance To estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 within households and to define the risk factors for new infections in household members who are in close contact with the index case. ...In this prospective cohort study, from March 2020-December 2021 we enrolled 60 households with index cases who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. All household contacts and index cases were tested daily for SARS-CoV-2 via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) using self-collected anterior nares specimens. Households were followed until all study participants in the household tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 for seven consecutive days. We collected sex, age, race/ethnicity, comorbidities, and relationship to index case for secondary contacts, household level characteristics including primary income, household density, and square feet per person on property. We compared the sociodemographic variables between COVID-19 positive and negative household members and between households where secondary transmission did and did not occur. Daily anterior nares swabs were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-PCR, in order to assess duration of nasal shedding of SARS-CoV-2, as well as risk of transmission to secondary household contacts. Of the 163 participants in this study, 84 (51.5%) were women; median age (IQR) was 36.0 (17.0-54.0) years of age; 78 (47.8%) were white and 48 (29.5%) were Hispanic/LatinX. Of the fifty households with household contacts, at least one secondary case occurred in twenty-six households (52.0%) and forty-five household contacts (43.7%) were infected. Secondary attack rate was lowest among children of index cases (6/23, 26.1%). Modified Poisson regression identified that the risk of transmission to household contacts increases significantly with age (Risk ratio for each increase in years of age = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02). Mixed effects regression models identified that participants with chronic diseases, such as asthma, diabetes, cancer, or cardiac disease, had higher Cts at baseline when compared to participants without chronic diseases (6.62, 95% CI: 1.46-11.77, p = 0.02) and show a slower rate of increase in Ct over time (-0.43, 95% CI: -0.77 to -0.09, p = 0.02) This study suggests that HHT represents a key source of community-based infection of SARS-CoV-2. Allocation of resources for contact investigations and prevention interventions should focus on the individuals at highest risk of infection in households, especially those with higher density homes.
Hosts including humans, other vertebrates, and arthropods, are frequently infected with heterogeneous populations of pathogens. Within-host pathogen diversity has major implications for human health, ...epidemiology, and pathogen evolution. However, pathogen diversity within-hosts is difficult to characterize and little is known about the levels and sources of within-host diversity maintained in natural populations of disease vectors. Here, we examine genomic variation of the Lyme disease bacteria, Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb), in 98 individual field-collected tick vectors as a model for study of within-host processes. Deep population sequencing reveals extensive and previously undocumented levels of Bb variation: the majority (~70%) of ticks harbor mixed strain infections, which we define as levels Bb diversity pre-existing in a diverse inoculum. Within-tick diversity is thus a sample of the variation present within vertebrate hosts. Within individual ticks, we detect signatures of positive selection. Genes most commonly under positive selection across ticks include those involved in dissemination in vertebrate hosts and evasion of the vertebrate immune complement. By focusing on tick-borne Bb, we show that vectors can serve as epidemiological and evolutionary sentinels: within-vector pathogen diversity can be a useful and unbiased way to survey circulating pathogen diversity and identify evolutionary processes occurring in natural transmission cycles.
In the past decade, tuberculosis incidence has declined in much of the world, but has risen in central and South America. It is not yet clear what is driving this reversal of progress in tuberculosis ...control. Since 2000, the incarcerated population in central and South America has grown by 206%, the greatest increase in the world. Over the same period, notified tuberculosis cases among the incarcerated population (hereinafter termed persons deprived of their liberty PDL, following the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights) have risen by 269%. In both central and South America, the rise of disease among PDL more than offsets tuberculosis control gains in the general population. Tuberculosis is increasingly concentrated among PDL; currently, 11% of all notified tuberculosis cases in central and South America occur among PDL who comprise less than 1% of the population. The extraordinarily high risk of acquiring tuberculosis within prisons creates a health and human rights crisis for PDL that also undermines wider tuberculosis control efforts. Controlling tuberculosis in this region will require countries to take urgent measures to prioritise the health of PDL.
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