In low-lying coastal areas, the co-occurrence of high sea level and precipitation resulting in large runoff may cause compound flooding (CF). When the two hazards interact, the resulting impact can ...be worse than when they occur individually. Both storm surges and heavy precipitation, as well as their interplay, are likely to change in response to global warming. Despite the CF relevance, a comprehensive hazard assessment beyond individual locations is missing, and no studies have examined CF in the future. Analyzing co-occurring high sea level and heavy precipitation in Europe, we show that the Mediterranean coasts are experiencing the highest CF probability in the present. However, future climate projections show emerging high CF probability along parts of the northern European coast. In several European regions, CF should be considered as a potential hazard aggravating the risk caused by mean sea level rise in the future.
Precipitation downscaling improves the coarse resolution and poor representation of precipitation in global climate models and helps end users to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate ...change. This paper integrates perspectives from meteorologists, climatologists, statisticians, and hydrologists to identify generic end user (in particular, impact modeler) needs and to discuss downscaling capabilities and gaps. End users need a reliable representation of precipitation intensities and temporal and spatial variability, as well as physical consistency, independent of region and season. In addition to presenting dynamical downscaling, we review perfect prognosis statistical downscaling, model output statistics, and weather generators, focusing on recent developments to improve the representation of space‐time variability. Furthermore, evaluation techniques to assess downscaling skill are presented. Downscaling adds considerable value to projections from global climate models. Remaining gaps are uncertainties arising from sparse data; representation of extreme summer precipitation, subdaily precipitation, and full precipitation fields on fine scales; capturing changes in small‐scale processes and their feedback on large scales; and errors inherited from the driving global climate model.
VALUE is an open European collaboration to intercompare downscaling approaches for climate change research, focusing on different validation aspects (marginal, temporal, extremes, spatial, ...process‐based, etc.). Here we describe the participating methods and first results from the first experiment, using “perfect” reanalysis (and reanalysis‐driven regional climate model (RCM)) predictors to assess the intrinsic performance of the methods for downscaling precipitation and temperatures over a set of 86 stations representative of the main climatic regions in Europe. This study constitutes the largest and most comprehensive to date intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods, covering the three common downscaling approaches (perfect prognosis, model output statistics—including bias correction—and weather generators) with a total of over 50 downscaling methods representative of the most common techniques.
Overall, most of the downscaling methods greatly improve (reanalysis or RCM) raw model biases and no approach or technique seems to be superior in general, because there is a large method‐to‐method variability. The main factors most influencing the results are the seasonal calibration of the methods (e.g., using a moving window) and their stochastic nature. The particular predictors used also play an important role in cases where the comparison was possible, both for the validation results and for the strength of the predictor–predictand link, indicating the local variability explained. However, the present study cannot give a conclusive assessment of the skill of the methods to simulate regional future climates, and further experiments will be soon performed in the framework of the EURO‐CORDEX initiative (where VALUE activities have merged and follow on).
Finally, research transparency and reproducibility has been a major concern and substantive steps have been taken. In particular, the necessary data to run the experiments are provided at http://www.value‐cost.eu/data and data and validation results are available from the VALUE validation portal for further investigation: http://www.value‐cost.eu/validationportal.
The largest and most comprehensive to date intercomparison of statistical downscaling methods is presented, with a total of over 50 downscaling methods representative of the most common approaches and techniques. Overall, most of the downscaling methods greatly improve raw model biases and no approach is superior in general, due to the large method‐to‐method variability. The main factors influencing the results are the seasonal calibration of the methods and their stochastic nature, for biases in the mean and variance.
This study examines the influence of meteorological factors and air pollutants on the performance of automatic pollen monitoring devices, as part of the EUMETNET Autopollen COST ADOPT-intercomparison ...campaign held in Munich, Germany, during the 2021 pollen season. The campaign offered a unique opportunity to compare all automatic monitors available at the time, a Plair Rapid-E, a Hund-Wetzlar BAA500, an OPC Alphasense, a KH-3000 Yamatronics, three Swisens Polenos, a PollenSense APS, a FLIR IBAC2, a DMT WIBS-5, an Aerotape Sextant, to the average of four manual Hirst traps, under the same environmental conditions. The investigation aimed to elucidate how meteorological factors and air pollution impact particle capture and identification efficiency.
The analysis showed coherent results for most devices regarding the correlation between environmental conditions and pollen concentrations. This reflects on one hand, a significant correlation between weather and airborne pollen concentration, and on the other hand the capability of devices to provide meaningful data under the conditions under which measurements were taken. However, correlation strength varied among devices, reflecting differences in design, algorithms, or sensors used. Additionally, it was observed that different algorithms applied to the same dataset resulted in different concentration outputs, highlighting the role of algorithm design in these systems (monitor + algorithm).
Notably, no significant influence from air pollutants on the pollen concentrations was observed, suggesting that any potential difference in effect on the systems might require higher air pollution concentrations or more complex interactions. However, results from some monitors were affected to a minor degree by specific weather variables.
Our findings suggest that the application of real-time devices in urban environments should focus on the associated algorithm that classifies pollen taxa. The impact of air pollution, although not to be excluded, is of secondary concern as long as the pollution levels are similar to a large European city like Munich.
Display omitted
•First evaluation of weather and air pollution influence on automatic pollen monitors•Systems' (device + algorithm) results were mainly impacted by weather variables•Peaks of particulate matter causing misclassifications might add a bias in counts•Other air pollutants do not seem to be major factors influencing the measurements•Including environmental conditions in algorithms can reduce false positives
Climate is a key driver of parasite transmission and disease dynamics. For trematode parasites, the high temperature sensitivity of transmission between first and second intermediate hosts may lead ...to higher infection rates with global warming, or spatially with warmer latitudes. However, spatial heterogeneities are common, and local factors are known to play crucial roles in determining infection levels. Using the latitudinal and sea temperature gradient along the New Zealand coastline, we assessed if this temperature sensitivity indeed translates into higher parasite abundance towards lower (i.e. warmer) latitudes in the cockle Austrovenus stutchburyi which serves as second intermediate host for several echinostome trematode species. Seventeen mudflats were sampled, and host densities and infection levels (i.e. metacercariae abundance) were measured for cockles, as well as for whelks and mudsnails (prevalence; first intermediate hosts). No evidence was found for a latitudinal pattern of metacercariae abundance in cockles. Instead, whelk prevalence per site and cockle foot size were found to be the main predictors. This highlights the importance of local factors—in particular, infection levels in first intermediate (i.e. source) hosts. These results indicate that, at least at large spatial scales, the temperature sensitivity of host-parasite systems may be offset by other ecological factors that confer resilience against on-going and predicted climate change.
PDF
