Gene discovery, estimation of heritability captured by SNP arrays, inference on genetic architecture and prediction analyses of complex traits are usually performed using different statistical models ...and methods, leading to inefficiency and loss of power. Here we use a Bayesian mixture model that simultaneously allows variant discovery, estimation of genetic variance explained by all variants and prediction of unobserved phenotypes in new samples. We apply the method to simulated data of quantitative traits and Welcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC) data on disease and show that it provides accurate estimates of SNP-based heritability, produces unbiased estimators of risk in new samples, and that it can estimate genetic architecture by partitioning variation across hundreds to thousands of SNPs. We estimated that, depending on the trait, 2,633 to 9,411 SNPs explain all of the SNP-based heritability in the WTCCC diseases. The majority of those SNPs (>96%) had small effects, confirming a substantial polygenic component to common diseases. The proportion of the SNP-based variance explained by large effects (each SNP explaining 1% of the variance) varied markedly between diseases, ranging from almost zero for bipolar disorder to 72% for type 1 diabetes. Prediction analyses demonstrate that for diseases with major loci, such as type 1 diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis, Bayesian methods outperform profile scoring or mixed model approaches.
Application of the experimental design of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) is now 10 years old (young), and here we review the remarkable range of discoveries it has facilitated in population ...and complex-trait genetics, the biology of diseases, and translation toward new therapeutics. We predict the likely discoveries in the next 10 years, when GWASs will be based on millions of samples with array data imputed to a large fully sequenced reference panel and on hundreds of thousands of samples with whole-genome sequencing data.
Health risk factors such as body mass index (BMI) and serum cholesterol are associated with many common diseases. It often remains unclear whether the risk factors are cause or consequence of ...disease, or whether the associations are the result of confounding. We develop and apply a method (called GSMR) that performs a multi-SNP Mendelian randomization analysis using summary-level data from genome-wide association studies to test the causal associations of BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, serum cholesterols, blood pressures, height, and years of schooling (EduYears) with common diseases (sample sizes of up to 405,072). We identify a number of causal associations including a protective effect of LDL-cholesterol against type-2 diabetes (T2D) that might explain the side effects of statins on T2D, a protective effect of EduYears against Alzheimer's disease, and bidirectional associations with opposite effects (e.g., higher BMI increases the risk of T2D but the effect of T2D on BMI is negative).
Narrow-sense heritability (h
) is an important genetic parameter that quantifies the proportion of phenotypic variance in a trait attributable to the additive genetic variation generated by all ...causal variants. Estimation of h
previously relied on closely related individuals, but recent developments allow estimation of the variance explained by all SNPs used in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in conventionally unrelated individuals, that is, the SNP-based heritability (). In this Perspective, we discuss recently developed methods to estimate for a complex trait (and genetic correlation between traits) using individual-level or summary GWAS data. We discuss issues that could influence the accuracy of , definitions, assumptions and interpretations of the models, and pitfalls of misusing the methods and misinterpreting the models and results.
Naomi Wray works at the interface of genetics, statistics and psychiatric disorders. With early training in quantitative genetics applied to livestock she brought to the field a perspective on the ...polygenic nature of common, complex disease. She advocates for experimental paradigms that exploit polygenicity to advance translational outcomes in psychiatry.
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of genetic variants associated with human complex traits. However, the genes or functional DNA elements through which these variants ...exert their effects on the traits are often unknown. We propose a method (called SMR) that integrates summary-level data from GWAS with data from expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) studies to identify genes whose expression levels are associated with a complex trait because of pleiotropy. We apply the method to five human complex traits using GWAS data on up to 339,224 individuals and eQTL data on 5,311 individuals, and we prioritize 126 genes (for example, TRAF1 and ANKRD55 for rheumatoid arthritis and SNX19 and NMRAL1 for schizophrenia), of which 25 genes are new candidates; 77 genes are not the nearest annotated gene to the top associated GWAS SNP. These genes provide important leads to design future functional studies to understand the mechanism whereby DNA variation leads to complex trait variation.
We have recently developed analysis methods (GREML) to estimate the genetic variance of a complex trait/disease and the genetic correlation between two complex traits/diseases using genome-wide ...single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data in unrelated individuals. Here we use analytical derivations and simulations to quantify the sampling variance of the estimate of the proportion of phenotypic variance captured by all SNPs for quantitative traits and case-control studies. We also derive the approximate sampling variance of the estimate of a genetic correlation in a bivariate analysis, when two complex traits are either measured on the same or different individuals. We show that the sampling variance is inversely proportional to the number of pairwise contrasts in the analysis and to the variance in SNP-derived genetic relationships. For bivariate analysis, the sampling variance of the genetic correlation additionally depends on the harmonic mean of the proportion of variance explained by the SNPs for the two traits and the genetic correlation between the traits, and depends on the phenotypic correlation when the traits are measured on the same individuals. We provide an online tool for calculating the power of detecting genetic (co)variation using genome-wide SNP data. The new theory and online tool will be helpful to plan experimental designs to estimate the missing heritability that has not yet been fully revealed through genome-wide association studies, and to estimate the genetic overlap between complex traits (diseases) in particular when the traits (diseases) are not measured on the same samples.
The evidence that most adult-onset common diseases have a polygenic genetic architecture fully consistent with robust biological systems supported by multiple back-up mechanisms is now overwhelming. ...In this context, we consider the recent “omnigenic” or “core genes” model. A key assumption of the model is that there is a relatively small number of core genes relevant to any disease. While intuitively appealing, this model may underestimate the biological complexity of common disease, and therefore, the goal to discover core genes should not guide experimental design. We consider other implications of polygenicity, concluding that a focus on patient stratification is needed to achieve the goals of precision medicine.
Frameworks for understanding how genes contribute to phenotypic traits have the power to shape experimental approaches and funding allocations. In contrast to the recent “omnigenic” model that emphasized contributions from a few core genes to complex disease, this Perspective argues for continued support for acquiring a broad range of patient data to link genetic variation with phenotypic diversity.
The genome-wide association study (GWAS) has been widely used as an experimental design to detect associations between genetic variants and a phenotype. Two major confounding factors, population ...stratification and relatedness, could potentially lead to inflated GWAS test statistics and hence to spurious associations. Mixed linear model (MLM)-based approaches can be used to account for sample structure. However, genome-wide association (GWA) analyses in biobank samples such as the UK Biobank (UKB) often exceed the capability of most existing MLM-based tools especially if the number of traits is large. Here, we develop an MLM-based tool (fastGWA) that controls for population stratification by principal components and for relatedness by a sparse genetic relationship matrix for GWA analyses of biobank-scale data. We demonstrate by extensive simulations that fastGWA is reliable, robust and highly resource-efficient. We then apply fastGWA to 2,173 traits on array-genotyped and imputed samples from 456,422 individuals and to 2,048 traits on whole-exome-sequenced samples from 46,191 individuals in the UKB.
Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in Parkinson's disease have increased the scope of biological knowledge about the disease over the past decade. We aimed to use the largest aggregate of GWAS ...data to identify novel risk loci and gain further insight into the causes of Parkinson's disease.
We did a meta-analysis of 17 datasets from Parkinson's disease GWAS available from European ancestry samples to nominate novel loci for disease risk. These datasets incorporated all available data. We then used these data to estimate heritable risk and develop predictive models of this heritability. We also used large gene expression and methylation resources to examine possible functional consequences as well as tissue, cell type, and biological pathway enrichments for the identified risk factors. Additionally, we examined shared genetic risk between Parkinson's disease and other phenotypes of interest via genetic correlations followed by Mendelian randomisation.
Between Oct 1, 2017, and Aug 9, 2018, we analysed 7·8 million single nucleotide polymorphisms in 37 688 cases, 18 618 UK Biobank proxy-cases (ie, individuals who do not have Parkinson's disease but have a first degree relative that does), and 1·4 million controls. We identified 90 independent genome-wide significant risk signals across 78 genomic regions, including 38 novel independent risk signals in 37 loci. These 90 variants explained 16–36% of the heritable risk of Parkinson's disease depending on prevalence. Integrating methylation and expression data within a Mendelian randomisation framework identified putatively associated genes at 70 risk signals underlying GWAS loci for follow-up functional studies. Tissue-specific expression enrichment analyses suggested Parkinson's disease loci were heavily brain-enriched, with specific neuronal cell types being implicated from single cell data. We found significant genetic correlations with brain volumes (false discovery rate-adjusted p=0·0035 for intracranial volume, p=0·024 for putamen volume), smoking status (p=0·024), and educational attainment (p=0·038). Mendelian randomisation between cognitive performance and Parkinson's disease risk showed a robust association (p=8·00 × 10−7).
These data provide the most comprehensive survey of genetic risk within Parkinson's disease to date, to the best of our knowledge, by revealing many additional Parkinson's disease risk loci, providing a biological context for these risk factors, and showing that a considerable genetic component of this disease remains unidentified. These associations derived from European ancestry datasets will need to be followed-up with more diverse data.
The National Institute on Aging at the National Institutes of Health (USA), The Michael J Fox Foundation, and The Parkinson's Foundation (see appendix for full list of funding sources).
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