Background:Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmic disorder among the elderly, and increases the risk of stroke. Oral anticoagulants (OAC) are highly effective in preventing stroke, and there ...are evidence-based guidelines for the optimal use of OAC in patients with AF.Methods and Results:The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, a typical urban community in Japan with a total population of 283,000. Of the 3,282 patients enrolled by October 2012, 1-year follow-up was completed for 2,914 patients. OAC, mainly warfarin, were given to 1,546 patients (53.1%); overused for low-risk patients, and underused for patients at risk, based on the guidelines. Moreover, warfarin was sometimes given at a sub-therapeutic dose; only 54.4% of patients were within the optimal therapeutic range. The 1-year outcomes revealed that the incidences of both stroke and major bleeding were equivalent between patients taking OAC and those without; major clinical events were as follows: (OAC vs. non-OAC) stroke 2.7% vs. 2.8%, ischemic stroke 2.1% vs. 2.0% and major bleeding 1.4% vs. 1.5% (NS for all).Conclusions:The Fushimi AF Registry provides a unique snapshot of current AF management in an urban community in Japan. The present study reveals inappropriate use of OAC for patients with AF, indicating discordance between guideline recommendations and real-world clinical practice. (Circ J2014;78:2166–2172)
The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are widely used to assess ischemic risk in the patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the discrimination performance of these scores is limited. Using the ...data from a community-based prospective cohort study, we sought to construct a machine learning-based prediction model for cerebral infarction in patients with AF, and to compare its performance with the existing scores. All consecutive patients with AF treated at 81 study institutions from March 2011 to May 2017 were enrolled (n = 4396). The whole dataset was divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1005) and validation cohort (n = 752) after excluding the patients with valvular AF and anticoagulation therapy. Using the derivation cohort dataset, a machine learning model based on gradient boosting tree algorithm (ML) was built to predict cerebral infarction. In the validation cohort, the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of the ML model was higher than those of the existing models according to the Hanley and McNeil method: ML, 0.72 (95%CI, 0.66–0.79); CHADS2, 0.61 (95%CI, 0.53–0.69); CHA2DS2-VASc, 0.62 (95%CI, 0.54–0.70). As a conclusion, machine learning algorithm have the potential to perform better than the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores for predicting cerebral infarction in patients with non-valvular AF.
Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risks of stroke and death, and the prevalence of AF is increasing significantly. Until recently, warfarin was the only oral anticoagulant ...for stroke prevention, but novel anticoagulants are now under development. Methods and results The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based survey of AF patients. We aimed to enroll all of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, which is located at the southern end of the city of Kyoto. Fushimi-ku is densely populated with a total population of 283,000, and is assumed to represent a typical urban community in Japan. On the basis of the general prevalence of AF in the Japanese (0.6%), we estimated the total number of AF patients as 1700. A total of 76 institutions, a large proportion of which were private clinics, participated in the study. At present, we have enrolled 3183 patients from March 2011 to June 2012 (approximately 1.12% of total population). The mean age was 74.2 ± 11.0 years, and 59.3% of subjects were male. The mean body weight was 58.5 ± 13.2 kg, and the proportions with a body weight of less than 50 kg and 60 kg were 25.7% and 55.0%, respectively. The type of AF was paroxysmal in 46.0%, persistent in 7.3%, and permanent in 46.7%. Major co-existing diseases were hypertension (60.6%), heart failure (27.9%), diabetes (23.2%), stroke (19.4%), coronary artery disease (15.0%), myocardial infarction (6.4%), dyslipidemia (42.4%), and chronic kidney disease (26.4%). The mean CHADS2 score was 2.09 ± 1.35: 0 in 11.8% of patients, 1 in 27.1%, and 2 in 29.1%. Warfarin was prescribed in only 48.5% of patients, whereas anti-platelet drugs, mainly aspirin, were prescribed for more than 30% of the patients. Conclusions The Fushimi AF Registry provides a unique snapshot of current AF management in an urban community in Japan.
Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients often have concomitant coronary artery disease (CAD); however, there are little data on clinical characteristics and outcomes of such patients in daily ...clinical practice in Japan.Methods and Results: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Follow-up data were available for 4,464 patients, and the median follow up was 5.1 (interquartile range: 2.3–8.0) years. History of CAD was present in 647 patients (14%); of those patients, 267 (41%) had history of myocardial infarction (MI). Patients with CAD were older and had more comorbidities than those without CAD. The crude incidences (% per patient-year) of cardiovascular events were significantly higher in patients with CAD than those without CAD (cardiac death: 1.8 vs. 0.7, stroke or systemic embolism SE: 2.9 vs. 2.1, MI: 0.6 vs. 0.1, composite of those events: 5.1 vs. 2.8, respectively, all log-rank P<0.01). After multivariate adjustment, concomitant CAD was associated with incidence of cardiac events, and history of MI was associated with incidence of MI; however, neither history of CAD nor MI was associated with the incidence of stroke/SE.Conclusions: In Japanese AF patients, concomitant CAD was associated with higher prevalences of major co-morbidities and higher incidences of cardiovascular events; however, history of CAD was not associated with the incidence of stroke/SE.
Background: The combination of oral anticoagulant (OAC) and antiplatelet drug (APD) increases the bleeding risk in atrial fibrillation (AF). Non-vitamin K antagonist OAC (NOAC) have been increasingly ...used since 2011. We investigated current status, time trends and outcomes of AF patients using combination therapy in 2011–2017. Methods and Results: The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Of 2,378 patients with OAC at enrollment, 521 (22%) received combination therapy, while 1,857 (78%) received OAC alone. When compared with OAC alone, combination therapy patients had more comorbidities, but approximately 30% had no atherosclerotic disease. From 2011 to 2017, the prevalence of combination therapy decreased from 26% to 14%. The prevalence of NOAC increased in those on combination therapy. Off-label under-dosing of NOAC increased year by year, especially in combination therapy. During follow-up, the incidence of major bleeding (hazard ratio HR, 1.42; 95% CI: 1.03–1.95) and stroke/systemic embolism (HR, 1.48; 95% CI: 1.09–2.00) was higher in the combination therapy than in the OAC alone group. Conclusions: In Japanese AF patients receiving OAC, the prevalence of combination therapy decreased, with the proportion of NOAC use increasing in 2011–2017. Many patients, however, received off-label NOAC under-dosing, especially in the combination therapy group. Patients with combination therapy had higher incidences of major bleeding as well as stroke/systemic embolism, compared with OAC monotherapy.
Background:There is a growing burden of valvular heart disease (VHD) and atrial fibrillation (AF) due to population aging, but data regarding the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF and ...concomitant VHD are lacking.Methods and Results:The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto. Among 3,566 patients with available echocardiographic data, 20% had VHD, consisting of 131 valvular AF (VAF: 3.7%) and 583 nonvalvular AF with VHD (NVAF-VHD: 16.3%). Here, VAF was defined as AF with mitral stenosis or a prosthetic heart valve. AF patients with VHD were older, had more comorbidities with a higher CHADS2 score, and were prescribed oral anticoagulants more frequently than those without VHD. After adjusting for confounders, VHD was not associated with stroke or systemic embolism, all-cause mortality, or cardiac death. NVAF-VHD was significantly associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for heart failure (adjusted hazard ratio HR, 1.44; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.16–1.78), whereas VAF was not (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 0.86–1.92). Among all types of VHD, aortic valve diseases were associated with a higher risk of cardiac events, whereas mitral valve diseases were not.Conclusions:Although VHD did not significantly affect thromboembolism or mortality, it affected cardiac events depending on type, with aortic valve diseases having higher risk, in Japanese patients with AF.
Background:Heart rate (HR) is an important factor in atrial fibrillation (AF); however, it remains unclear whether the impact of HR differs between paroxysmal AF and sustained (persistent and ...permanent) AF.Methods and Results:The association of resting HR during AF with adverse events (composite of all-cause death, hospitalization for heart failure, stroke/systemic embolisms, myocardial infarction, and arrhythmic events) in 1,064 paroxysmal and 1,610 sustained AF patients from the Fushimi AF Registry were investigated. These patients were divided into 4 groups based on their resting HR; ≥110 beats/min (bpm), 80–109 bpm, 60–79 bpm, and <60 bpm. The number of patients in each group was 486, 400, 172, and 22 for paroxysmal AF, and 205, 734, 645, and 71 for sustained AF, respectively. Among patients with sustained AF, a HR ≥110 bpm was associated with a higher incidence of adverse events at 1 year and during the entire follow up (median of 1,833 days) (hazard ratio 95% confidence interval compared with a HR of 60–79 bpm: 1.90 1.31–2.72 at 1 year, 1.38 1.10–1.72 during the entire follow up). Patients with a HR <60 bpm showed higher incidence of adverse events at 1 year; however, the incidence of adverse events did not differ among all HR groups of paroxysmal AF.Conclusions:Baseline HR was associated with adverse events in sustained AF, but not in paroxysmal AF.
Background:Female sex is considered a risk factor for thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), and is included in the risk stratification scheme, CHA2DS2-VASc score. The purpose of ...the present study was to investigate the clinical outcomes of female Japanese AF patients.Methods and Results:The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of the AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto. Follow-up data were available for 3,878 patients. Female AF patients (n=1,551, 40.0%) were older (77.0 vs. 71.4 years; P<0.001) than male patients (n=2,327, 60.0%). Female patients were more likely to have heart failure (31.1% vs. 23.7%; P<0.001). Previous stroke incidence (19.2% vs. 21.4%; P=0.083) was comparable between male and female patients. During the median follow-up period of 1,102 days, Cox regression analysis demonstrated that female sex was not independently associated with a risk of stroke or systemic embolism (adjusted hazard ratio HR 0.74; 95% confidence interval CI: 0.54–1.00, P=0.051). However, female sex showed an association with a lower risk of intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted HR 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30–0.95, P=0.032) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 0.56; 95% CI: 0.46–0.68, P<0.001).Conclusions:We demonstrated that female sex is not independently associated with an increased risk of thromboembolism, but is associated with a decreased risk of intracranial hemorrhage and all-cause death in Japanese AF patients enrolled in the Fushimi AF Registry.
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