•MSA outperforms more frequently than all other methods.•GMDH is the most stable in terms of outperforming random walk (75% of cases).•The results show better forecasting performance of longer period ...data.•The market has been less efficient during Covid-19.
This paper investigates the forecasting performance for credit default swap (CDS) spreads by Support Vector Machines (SVM), Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Markov switching autoregression (MSA) for daily CDS spreads of the 513 leading US companies, in the period 2009–2020. The goal of this study is to test the forecasting performance of these methods before and during the Covid-19 pandemic and to check whether there are changes in the market efficiency. MSA outperforms all other methods most frequently. GMDH breaks the efficient market hypothesis more frequently (75%) than other methods. The change of the relative predictability during Covid-19 is small with some increase of the advantage of the investigated methods over a benchmark. We find that the market has been less efficient during Covid-19, however, there are no huge differences in prediction performances before and during the Covid-19 period.
The research deals with the sustainable development of the Serbian and Slovenian countryside, under the influence of tourism progress. The article identifies the main rural tourism competitiveness in ...Serbia and Slovenia, as one of the essential factors of rural development in both countries, analyzing the main contributions and making a series of proposals to guide the future research agenda. The aim of the paper is to clarify around one obviously defined objective—to point out the competitiveness of sustainable rural tourism in typical post-socialist settings. The data for this study were collected using the Integrated Model of Destination Competitiveness to observe Serbian and Slovenian competitiveness in tourism. Determinants were assessed using a survey evaluating four demanding factors and 20 supporting factors, based upon a five-point Likert Scale. The results indicated that the friendliness of residents towards visitors, easy communication between them, together with quality of infrastructure and health facilities show the highest level of statistical correlation. These are the main propositions to start an initiative for the authorities in local communities to actively participate in sustainable rural development. The findings provide tourism stakeholders with relevant respondents’ perceptions pertaining to the tourism development in non-urban areas.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of wine tourism on rural destination development. Consequently, this study attempts to develop contemporary insights on this under-researched ...area such as residents’ perceptions of wine tourism and its impact on the rural destination development.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the authors used a structured survey questionnaire from a random sample of 318 respondents based on the Fruška Gora Mountain in Serbia. Research also used structural equational modeling for empirical econometric testing in this data sample. This technique is appropriate for multivariate analysis.
Findings
Personal resident benefit associated with wineries is positively related to resident perceived economic impact (H1) R2=0.624; socio-cultural impact (H2) R2=0.685 and environmental impact (H3) R2=0.716 of wineries on local communities. Looking at the path diagram, the authors concluded that personal resident benefit associated with wineries is strongly related to resident perceived impact of wineries on local communities as regression weights are higher. Other findings relate those residents’ positive perceptions of wine tourism to increases in sales revenue, environmental protection, intrapersonal and interpersonal communication.
Research limitations/implications
The positive attitude of the local population is an essential link of development. Such understanding of residents’ perceptions optimizes destination management in the future and, more importantly, local sustainable development. This has high policy implications.
Originality/value
The present study contributes to the scientific circles by connecting perception research with wine tourism.
The purpose of the study is to evaluate the role of human asset in firm performance and its implication for firm valuation. To do so a modified five-factor model with human asset designed for ...capturing the size, value, profitability and investment in average portfolio returns that performs better than both Fama-French (1993) three- and Fama-French (2015) five-factor model. Study redefines CMA factors as CvMAv that includes human assets in it. The main problem with the modified five-factor model with human asset is the microcap with conservative investment stocks whose returns behave like that low-value unprofitable firms.
•Correlation between returns of money market instruments in the EU and US is not stable.•Correlation rises when countries are exposed to the same external shocks.•During the last five years returns ...on short-term instrument have not become more interdependent.•There is no advantages in diversifications investing only in US or EU treasuries.•GARCH (2,1) turns to be more effective for time series with longer memory.
This research analyse the US and the EU money markets interdependence from 2004 to 2018. The study explains to what extent the volatility of the chosen money markets instruments in two regions is inter-correlated before, during and after the financial crisis of 2008. We apply the econometric analysis and estimate time-series models of class GARCH to study the historical dynamics of interbank rates and bond returns. The study demonstrates that correlation between returns of analogous money market instruments in the EU and US is not stable over time. We find that correlation rises in periods when countries are exposed to the same external shocks as global financial crisis. Wavelet coherence analysis suggests that investors do not get any advantages of portfolio diversification investing only in US treasuries with different maturities for more than 256 days and do not get any advantages at all investing only in European bonds.
As one of the first European cases of the introduction of COVID-19 certificates, the Serbian Government initiated the measure of limited working hours of restaurants for unvaccinated visitors. Due to ...such actions and frequent bans on working during the pandemic, many restaurants in Serbia had to lay off workers or close. At the end of October 2021, the certificate for entering restaurants and all catering facilities for all the visitors became mandatory. It is interesting to note that earlier findings suggested that some personality characteristics determine the specific behaviors during the pandemic, but there is still a small number of results related to restaurants’ visitors. This study aimed to investigate the predictive strength of the Big Five Factors (BFF) to attitudes toward visits to restaurants in Serbia during the pandemic, depending on the attitudes toward accepting COVID-19 certificates. A survey was conducted on a total sample of 953 visitors of restaurants in three major cities in Serbia. The results of hierarchical regression analysis showed that Openness and Extraversion positively predict attitudes toward visits to facilities during a pandemic, while Conscientiousness and Neuroticism were negative predictors. However, in the second step of hierarchical regression analysis, attitudes toward a COVID-19 certificate as a mediator variable significantly reduced the negative effect of Neuroticism on the attitudes toward visits. It seems that, by obtaining the certificate, the fear of unsafe stays in restaurants can be reduced, and that making decisions about (no) visiting restaurants during the pandemic does not necessarily have to be compromised by emotional lability.
This study contributes to our understanding of how the emergence of the COVID‐19 pandemic changes the global Banking Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI) landscape. Before the COVID‐19 pandemic, ...BFSIs corporate strategy was solely aligned to the quest for operational efficiency. However, during the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic, global BFSIs are forced to adopt digital transformation in their operations due to a rise in transaction volumes. The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic already triggers holistic innovations concerning the global BFSI's product, process, concept, trend, or idea. Thus, the BFSI cannot survive without efficient and innovative system software for global operations. The study plots the hype cycle to identify relevant technologies to deal with real‐world business problems. The hype cycle indicates that the need for advanced data integration is growing and COVID‐19 pandemic has already triggered it. The study argues that the incorporation of data integration might be challenging initially for BFSIs but eventually it may result in an efficient model to handle these types of pandemic or unexpected circumstances.
This study examines the ways in which firms recover from stagnation or sales decline, with a focus on two key aspects: traditional high-growth companies and growth restarts within the framework of ...organizational life cycle theory. Analyzing a dataset of 1883 Russian firms from 2013 to 2021, this research employs logistic regression to identify factors that promote growth. These factors include the youth of the firm, investment intensity, and significant sales drops during periods of stagnation. The study introduces a new economic category, termed ‘restarting growth’, which signifies a firm’s sustained expansion following an extended period of stagnation. This category is crucial for identifying factors that increase the likelihood of a company transitioning to growth after prolonged stagnation or production downturn. The findings of this study reveal that firms that are younger, invest more intensively in fixed capital, and have experienced a larger sales drop during a period of stagnation are more likely to transition to growth. These results are juxtaposed with the growth factors characteristic of traditional high-growth companies, as well as with the theoretical approaches explaining growth restarts within the framework of organizational life cycle theory. Such distinctions are pivotal both for academic understanding and practical applications in discerning how companies rebound from crises. Moreover, the research identifies several highly significant factors—indicators that can assist investors in selecting promising firms for financing.
PurposeThe paper introduces a resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises (SIE).Design/methodology/approachThe model is grounded on ...resource-based view on the firm and dynamic capabilities approach. Linear programming technique is used to provide the actual framework to the resource-based model.FindingsThe paper introduces a new resource-based linear programming model for resource optimization in small innovative enterprises. The conceptual model is grounded on resource-based view (RBV) and dynamic capabilities strategy. The RVB of firm and firm strategy is based on the concept of economic rent. Linear programming technique is used to provide the actual framework to the resource-based model. In developing the versatility concept, study suggests a distinct sight regarding resource fungibility. Study classifies resources into multipliable, rentable and expendable resources to increases adequacy of the model. The developed model includes both tangible and intangible assets such as human capital. The survival rate of SIE in the early stages of life cycle is very low due to the competition among SIEs. In this regard, the greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility which is much desirable for the SIE especially in their initial stages of the life cycle. Kelliher and Reinl (2009) argued that micro firms have unique advantage over bigger firms in following term: rate of learning or redeployment of strategy in micro firms is faster than the rate of change in their environment. One very significant feature of the developed resource-based linear programming model is that mathematically the proposed model could easily be transformed into mixed integer or stochastic linear programming models to meet the time variant requirement of small firms especially when it expands its operation.Research limitations/implicationsThe survival rate of SIE in the early stages of life cycle is very low due to the competition among SIEs. In this regard, the greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility which is much desirable for the SIE especially in their initial stages of the life cycle. Kelliher and Reinl (2009) argued that micro firms have unique advantage over bigger firms in following term: rate of learning or redeployment of strategy in micro firms is faster than the rate of change in their environment. One very significant feature of the developed resource-based linear programming model is that mathematically the proposed model could easily be transformed into mixed integer or stochastic linear programming models to meet the time variant requirement of small firms especially when it expands its operation.Originality/valueOne very significant contribution of the present study is that the study develops a new resource-based model for SIE especially for the SIE in the initial stages of the life cycle, to gain competitive advantages. Furthermore, the present study contributes to the existing literature in strategy at least in three senses as mentioned below: 1. further addition of SIE research based on the RBV and dynamic capabilities in the strategy literature 2. in developing the versatility concept, the study suggests a distinct sight regarding resource fungibility and it classifies resources into three categories as follows: multipliable, rentable and expendable resources to increases adequacy of the model. 3. Finally, the study introduces a new resource-based linear programming model for SIE resources allocation. To the best of author’s knowledge, no such similar model is introduced by any previous studies for small firm. The greatest advancement of the developed resource-based linear programming model is its simplicity and versatility.
Sell‐side analysts' recommendations a value or noise Vukovic, Darko B.; Ugolnikov, Vladislav; Maiti, Moinak
International journal of finance and economics,
April 2021, 2021-04-00, 20210401, Volume:
26, Issue:
2
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
The main objective of the paper is to investigate the analysts’ recommendations’ value and to determine on which market the analysts have more predictive power that can be defined as an extent of a ...stock price’s reaction around a particular recommendation what leads to abnormal returns of the security. Such recommendations are significant in decision‐making whether to buy or to sell a particular stock. We observed 1,881 events from 168 companies traded at the London Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange in a period between January 1, 2016, and April 31, 2019. We used an event study analysis and classical one‐factor market model to determine expected returns for a particular stock in an estimation window. It was found that both American and European Union markets are feasible to be outperformed by the analysts but it is impossible to highlight any of the markets as they behave almost identically around positive, neutral and negative recommendations.
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