In this study, we propose an analysis of the earthquake clusters that occurred in North-Eastern Italy and western Slovenia from 1977 to today. Given a mainshock generating alarm in the population, we ...are interested in forecasting if a similar magnitude earthquake will follow. We classify the earthquake clusters associated with mainshocks of magnitude Mm into two classes: if the strongest aftershock has a magnitude ≥Mm-1 (swarms or large aftershock seismic sequences) as type A, otherwise (smaller aftershocks seismic sequences) as type B. A large aftershock following a main shock can cause significant damages to already weakened buildings and infrastructures, so a timely advisory information to the civil protection is of great interest for effective decision-making. For the first time, we applied to a new catalogue a pattern recognition algorithm for cluster type forecasting that we developed for all Italy (Gentili and Di Giovambattista, 2017). Thanks to the lower completeness magnitude of the local OGS catalogue, compared to the national one, and to a new version of the algorithm, we were able to lower the threshold of the clusters mainshocks magnitude from 4.5 to 3.7. The method has been validated by rigorous statistical tests. We tested the algorithm on the 1976 highly destructive earthquake cluster (mainshock magnitude 6.5 – the strongest in the last 80 years in the region) and we retrospectively forecasted it as an A cluster. Successful results were obtained also on other three smaller earthquake clusters in 2019.
•We study the occurrence of large aftershocks for NE Italy – W Slovenia earthquakes.•NESTORE pattern recognition approach estimates of the probability of occurrence.•We use features based on the ongoing seismic activity after the mainshock.•We retrospectively forecast strong aftershocks for 1976 Friuli earthquake.
The development of opposing continental subduction zones remains scantly explored in three dimensions. The Hindu Kush–Pamir orogenic system at the western end of the Himalayan orogen provides a rare ...example of continental collision linked to two opposing intra-continental subduction zones. The subducted plates feature a peculiar 3D geometry consisting of two distinct lithospheric fragments with different polarities, subduction angles and slab-curvatures beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamir, respectively. Using 3D geodynamic modeling, we simulate possible development of two opposing continental subduction zones to understand the dynamic evolution of the Hindu Kush–Pamir orogenic system. Our geodynamic model reproduces the major tectonic elements observed: (1) the deeper subduction depth, the steeper dip angle and the southward offset of the Hindu Kush subduction zone relative to the Pamir naturally occur if convergence direction of the subducting Indian plate and dip-direction of the Hindu Kush subduction zone match. (2) The formation of the highly asymmetrically curved Pamir region and the south-dipping subduction is promoted by the initial geometry of the indenting Indian lithosphere together with the existence of a major strike-slip fault on the eastern margin of the Pamir region. (3) Subduction of only the lower continental crust during continental collision can occur if the coupling between upper and lower crusts is weak enough to allow a separation of these two components, and that (4) the subduction of mainly lower crust then facilitates that conditions for intermediate-depth seismicity can be reached. (5) The secondary tectonic features modeled here such as strike-slip-fault growth, north–northwest striking extension zone, and lateral flow of the thickened ductile upper crust are comparable to the current tectonics of the region. (6) Model results are further compared to the potentially similar orogenic system, i.e., the Alpine orogen, in terms of the curved Western Alpine arc and the two opposing subducted slabs beneath the Alps and the Dinarides.
•We modeled the development of opposing continental subduction zones with 3D geodynamic models.•Major tectonic elements of the opposing Hindu Kush–Pamir continental subduction zones are reproduced in our 3D models.•Model results can also applied to other similar orogens (e.g., the Alpine orogen).
Slab pull generated by subducting oceanic lithosphere is generally considered as a major trigger for the onset of continental subduction. However, this may be in conflict with the occurrence of UHP ...terranes bearing no evidence of oceanic lithospheric rocks involved in the exhumation cycle. Here, we image the uppermost mantle P velocity structure beneath the Central Mediterranean, suggesting the possibility that the initiation of continental subduction may not require a precursor oceanic slab. We combine (i) a three-step inverted 3-D Pn tomography model of the Adriatic microplate with (ii) available geologic constraints and palinspastic reconstructions of the Africa–Eurasia plate-boundary zone. Our Pn tomography model reveals elongated regions with Vp < 7.6 km/s around the Adriatic microplate, clearly connected with the slab structure inferred from teleseismic P wave tomography and supportive of continental subduction along the Dinaric, Alpine and Apenninic subduction zones. Contrasting styles of subduction are observed on the opposite sides of the Adriatic microplate: a laterally variable SW-dipping subduction is documented beneath the Apennines, continental to the north and oceanic to the south, where rollback is faster; a laterally continuous NE-dipping continental subduction is documented under the Dinarides. The lack of a precursor oceanic slab under the Dinarides demonstrates that the onset of continental subduction, in complex plate-boundary zones, can be controlled by plate-tectonic processes far away from the subduction initiation site, and may take place without the contribution of the negative buoyancy of an old oceanic lithosphere.
•High resolution 3-D uppermost mantle P wavespeed structures.•Continental subduction at the boundaries of the Adriatic microplate.•Joint geophysical–geologic analysis of the complicated slab structures.•Continental subduction was not triggered by a precursor oceanic slab.•Broad implications to continental subduction initiation.
Mercury (Hg/TOC) spikes from eight Permian–Triassic boundary (PTB) sections in this study display patterns similar to each other across the so-called extinction interval as well as strong variation ...in sedimentation rates from section to section. Mercury may have been originated from the synchronous magmatism of the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province (STLIP).
At the GSSP in Meishan, China, Hg/TOC peaks were observed in the latest Permian mass extinction interval (LPME) and Early Triassic mass extinctions (ETME). The successions at Hovea-3 (Australia), Ursula Creek (Canada), Idrijca (Slovenia), Rizvanuša (Croatia) exhibit Hg/TOC peaks at the LPME and PTB. The Rizvanuša section displays one peak at the ETME horizon, Zal and Abadeh (Iran) successions at the LPME and ETME horizons, while Misci/Seres (Tyrol/Italy) section shows an enrichment at the LPME. The largest Hg/TOC peaks at the LPME, PTB and ETME are, perhaps, linked to the beginning of stage 2 (extrusive hiatus) of the Siberian Traps LIP. The meaning of the Hg/TOC spike between the LPME event and the PTB in seven of these sections is fuzzy.
In the δ202Hg (MDF) vs Δ201Hg (MIF) cross plot, the majority of samples from the extinction interval appear within the volcanic-emission box and a few samples plot in the sediment/soil/peat box. Hg-isotope signatures resulted from mixing processes of volcanic and normal marine sediment Hg, generating four horizontal trends whose Δ201Hg shows negligible to no variation. Less terrigenous-Hg influx was noticed in the sections closer to the STLIP (Rizvanuša, Idrijca and Seres/Misci, all in Europe) in which Δ201Hg (MIF) is close to zero. Marked influence occurs in sections far distant from the STLIP (Meishan, Ursula Creek and Hovea-3) that exhibit negative Δ201Hg (MIF). The two sections from Iran, at intermediate distance from the STLIP, exhibit the highest, positive Δ201Hg values (Abadeh section) and the lowest, negative Δ201Hg values (Zal section). A Δ199Hg (MIF) vs Hg (n·ng−1) cross plot suggests that volcanic Hg has been contaminated by normal marine source-Hg influx in these sections helping to shape two major curved trends.
The negative C-isotope excursions and Hg/TOC enrichments in the studied sections are nearly coeval and this supports the hypothesis of synchronism between the Permian–Triassic transition biotic crises (LPME and ETME) and the start of the stage 2 of the Siberian Traps (sill-intrusion style of magmatism).
•Hg/TOC pathways across the extinction interval from eight PTB sections are similar.•Hg/TOC peaks at LPME, PTB and ETME are linked to stage 2 of Siberian Traps volcanism.•In δ202Hg vs Δ201Hg plot samples from the extinction interval plot in the volcanic box•Low terrigenous-Hg influx is noticed in sections closer to the STLIP.•High terrigenous-Hg influence occurs in sections far distant the STLIP.
•A new method for groundwater recharge estimation in karst is proposed.•A simple conceptual model of soil cover, epikarst and vadose zone is developed.•Partial cross-correlation function is used as ...objective function.•Applicability of five existing empirical models to the Dinaric karst is analyzed.
Aquifers with time variant catchment boundaries, regional flows, and inflows from surface streams and accumulations are common in karst areas. Due to the lack of reliable methods for determination of water balance in the phreatic zone of such aquifers, groundwater recharge estimation is a challenge task. This paper introduces a new method for estimation of groundwater recharge in karst – the so-called partial correlation method (PCM). The basic hypothesis is that the groundwater recharge rates can be determined from the time series of precipitation, air temperature, relative humidity, and spring discharge, by using a partial cross-correlation function as objective function. Following this hypothesis, a simple conceptual model of water balance in the soil cover, epikarst and vadose zone is developed, and an objective function for estimation of the optimal value of parameter of this model is proposed. PCM is applied on the catchment of Žrnovnica Spring located in the Dinaric karst area of Croatia. The results of application are compared with the results of previous studies, as well as with the results obtained by five empirical models that have been used for estimation of groundwater recharge in the Mediterranean karst. The effective infiltration coefficients obtained by PCM for the Žrnovnica Spring are generally in accordance with the previously published ones.
In this article, we investigate the potential for detection and characterization of sinkholes under dense forest cover by using airborne laser scanning data. Laser pulse returns from the ground ...provide important data for the estimation of digital elevation model (DEM), which can be used for further processing. The main objectives of this study were to map and determine the geomorphometric characteristics of a large number of sinkholes and to investigate the correlations between geomorphology and vegetation in areas with such characteristics. The selected study area has very low anthropogenic influences and is particularly suitable for studying undisturbed karst sinkholes. The information extracted from this study regarding the shapes and depths of sinkholes show significant directionality for both orientation of sinkholes and their distribution over the area. Furthermore, significant differences in vegetation diversity and composition occur inside and outside the sinkholes, which indicates their presence has important ecological impacts.
The coupled tectonic and depositional history of extensional basins is usually described in terms of stratigraphic sequences linked with the activity of normal faults. This depositional-kinematic ...interplay is less understood in basins bounded by major extensional detachments or normal fault systems associated with significant exhumation of footwalls. Of particular interest is the link between tectonics and sedimentation during the migration of normal faulting in time and space across the basin. One area where such coupled depositional-kinematic history can be optimally studied is the Late Oligocene - Miocene Sarajevo-Zenica Basin, located in the Dinarides Mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This intra-montane basin recorded Oligocene – Pliocene sedimentation in an endemic and isolated lake environment. We use field kinematic and sedimentological mapping in outcrops correlated with existing local and regional studies to derive a high-resolution evolutionary model of the basin. The novel results demonstrate a close correlation between moments of normal faulting and high-order sedimentological cycles, while the overall extensional basin was filled by a largely uni-directional sediment supply from the neighbouring mountain chain. The migration in time and space of listric NE-dipping normal faults was associated with a gradual shift of the sedimentological environment. Transgressive-regressive cycles reflect sequential displacements on normal faults and their footwall exhumation, defining a new sedimentological model for such basins. This Early - Middle Miocene extension affected the central part of the Dinarides and was associated with the larger opening of the neighbouring Pannonian Basin. The extension was preceded and followed by two phases of contraction. The Oligocene - Early Miocene thrusting took place during the final stages of the Dinarides collision, while the post-Middle Miocene contraction is correlated with the regional indentation of the Adriatic continental unit. This latter phase inverted the extensional basin by reactivating the inherited basal listric detachment.
•Coupled tectonic and depositional model of asymmetric extensional basins.•Distribution of transgressive-regressive cycles reflects migration of deformation across the basin.•The final stages of Dinarides orogenic evolution are recorded in the basin.
Comprehensive glacial Quaternary studies involving geochronological methods, modelling of ice topography with the support of field geomorphological and geological data in the Balkan Peninsula are ...relatively scarce, although there is evidence of past glaciations in several mountain ranges. Here, we present research on the extent and timing of past glaciations on the northern Velebit Mt. in coastal Croatia and inferences of the climate during that time. Based on geomorphological and sedimentological evidence and using cosmogenic 36Cl surface exposure dating of moraine boulders, we provide an empirical reconstruction of past glaciers and compare this with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) simulations under different palaeoclimate forcings. The dating results show that the northern Velebit glaciers reached their maximum extent during the last glacial cycle before the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Maximum ice extent likely correlates with Marine Isotope Stage 5–4, although the exact timing cannot be determined at this point due to poorly known site- and time-specific denudation rates. Empirical reconstruction of the maximum extent suggests that the area covered by glaciers was ~116 km2. The-best fit PISM simulation indicates that the most likely palaeoclimate scenario for the glaciers of this size to form is a cooling of ~8 °C and a 10% reduction in precipitation from present-day levels. However, the best-fit simulation does not correctly model all mapped ice margins when changes in climatological parameters are applied uniformly across the model domain, potentially reflecting a different palaeoprecipitation pattern to today.
•The Northern Velebit glaciers reached their maximum extent before the global LGM.•The minimum moraine ages are 16.5 ± 1.6 ka, 52.6 ± 9.3 ka, 57.0 ± 11.0 ka and 94.0 ± 24.0 ka.•The maximum ice limit likely correlates with MIS 5–4.•The palaeoclimate was ~8 °C colder and ~10% drier than today.
High amounts of Chattian-Langhian orogenic magmatism have generated volcaniclastic deposits that are interbedded within the penecontemporaneous sedimentary marine successions in several ...central-western peri-Mediterranean chains. These deposits are widespread in at least 41 units of different basins located in different geotectonic provinces: (1) the Africa-Adria continental margins (external units), (2) the basinal units resting on oceanic or thinned continental crust of the different branches of the western Tethys, (3) the European Margin (external units), and (4) the Western Sardinia zone (Sardinia Trough units). The emplacement of volcaniclastic material in marine basins was controlled by gravity flows (mainly turbidites; epiclastites) and fallout (pyroclastites). A third type comprises volcaniclastic grains mixed with marine deposits (mixed pyroclastic-epiclastic). Calc-alkaline magmatic activity is characterized by a medium- to high-potassium andesite-dacite-rhyolite suite and is linked to complex geodynamic processes that affected the central-western Mediterranean area in the ∼26 to 15 My range. The space/time distribution of volcaniclastites, together with a paleogeographic reconstructions, provide keys and constraints for a better reconstruction of some geodynamic events. Previous models of the central-western Mediterranean area were examined to compare their compatibility with main paleotectonic and paleogeographic constraints presented by the main results of the study. Despite the complexity of the topic, a preliminary evolutionary model based on the distribution of volcaniclastites and active volcanic systems is proposed.
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