The CMA (Common Monetary Area) is a quadrilateral monetary arrangement encompassing South Africa, Namibia, Lesotho, and Eswatini. The four countries have undergone a gradual improvement in regional ...economic integration for the effective economic coordination of their policymaking. Despite the monetary coordination, the countries are still experiencing poor economic performance. This study traces how a shock or an unanticipated change in the anchor country’s central bank’s policy instrument, in this case, South Africa, affects the macroeconomic performance in the entire CMA region. Employing a Panel Structural Vector Autoregressive model (Panel-SVAR) and annual data from 1980–2021, the findings show that a positive shock in the repo rate from South Africa significantly affected important macroeconomic performance indicators. The results indicate that a shock in the anchor country’s repo rate is followed by a significant decline in RGDP_G, a decrease in inflation, a decrease in money supply, and an increase in lending rate in the entire CMA region. The study recommends that CMA monetary authorities and policymakers need to formulate policies toward cushioning the effects of unanticipated monetary policy shock from the anchor country as well as global shocks.
PurposeThis paper sets out to investigate whether the four members of the common monetary area (CMA) regime experience similar inflation-unemployment dynamics as explained by the Phillips Curve ...phenomenon.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a combination of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) and Copula based marginal regression techniques to investigate existence of a common Phillips curve (PC) between members of the CMA. Model estimation was done using country specific annual time series data for inflation, unemployment and imports spanning from 1980 to 2014.FindingsWe find evidence of contemporaneous correlation between the residuals of individual CMA PC equations and a statistically significant trade-off between inflation and unemployment for all CMA countries. Wald test results of cross-equation restrictions reveal a 9.94% chance of a common unemployment coefficient for CMA countries.Originality/valueTogether, the results of the SUR and Gaussian Copula techniques provide mixed and inconclusive evidence to support the existence of a common PC among CMA member states. This study is the first of its kind in examining this phenomenon for currency board regimes like CMA, and one of the very few among emerging market economies.
The Common Monetary Area (CMA) agreement has effectively granted the South African government sole discretion over monetary policy and implementation in the region. The effectiveness of this ...arrangement has long been under discussion given the heterogeneity of member countries. This paper uses a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) to examine the efficacy of the interest rate channel in the CMA. Specifically, our analysis uses data from 2000M1-2018M12 to examine how economic output, inflation, money supply, domestic credit, and lending rate spread for each member country respond to shocks in the South African repo rate. The main findings indicate that a positive shock to the South African repo rate has a statistically significant negative impact on economic output and a positive effect on inflation at the 10 percent level for all countries in the CMA. The results also show that money supply, domestic credit, and lending rate spread respond asymmetrically across members countries.
Resumo Este artigo analisa se os estados brasileiros constituem uma Área Monetária Ótima ao examinar a existência de assimetrias nas respostas estaduais aos choques na política monetária e no câmbio, ...além de comparar a resposta estadual aos choques comuns e idiossincráticos. Para tanto, utiliza-se a metodologia inicialmente desenvolvida por Lima et al. (2018) para estimar modelos de Vetores Autorregressivos Aumentados por Fatores Dinâmicos (FAVAR), que incorpora o amostrador de Gibbs proposto por Waggoner e Zha (2003) para identificar Vetores Autorregressivos Estruturais (SVAR) através de restrições de sinais nas funções impulso-resposta ao amostrador de Gibbs, desenvolvido por Bernanke e Boivin (2003) para estimar modelos FAVAR. O modelo permite identificar assimetrias nas respostas das taxas de crescimento do produto e dos preços dos estados brasileiros aos choques na política monetária e no câmbio, além de estimar a importância relativa das respostas das taxas de crescimento econômico estaduais aos choques comuns e específicos.
Abstract In this paper, we analyze whether the Brazilian states constitute an optimal monetary area by examining the possible asymmetries in the states’ responses to shocks in monetary and exchange policy, in addition to comparing the states’ responses to common and idiosyncratic shocks. The methodology initially developed by Lima et al. (2018) is used to estimate Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models that incorporates the Gibbs sampling, proposed by Wagoner and Zha (2003) to identify structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) through sign restrictions in the impulse response functions to the Gibbs sampling developed by Bernanke and Boivin (2003) to estimate FAVAR models. The model allows us to identify asymmetries in the responses of the growth economic rates and of the inflation of the Brazilian states to the shocks in the monetary policy and the exchange rate, besides estimating the relative importance of the responses of the states’ economic growth to the common and specific shocks.
Building a common future in Southern Africa Joannes Mongardini, Tamon Asonuma, Olivier Basdevant, Alfredo Cuevas, Xavier Debrun, Lars Engstrom, Imelda Flores Vazquez, Vitaliy Kramarenko, Lamin Leigh, Paul Masson, and Genevieve Verdier
2013., 2013-04-05, 2013
eBook, Book
Open access
The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the oldest customs union in the world, with significant opportunities ahead for creating higher economic growth and increased welfare benefits to the ...people of the region, by fulfilling its vision to become an economic community with a common market and monetary union. This volume describes policy options to address the barriers to equitable and sustainable development in the region and outlines a plan for deeper regional integration.
This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader groupings among Southern African Development Community (SADC) ...countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii) joining the CMA individually is beneficial for all SADC members except Angola, Mauritius and Tanzania; (iii) creating a symmetric CMA‐wide monetary union with a regional central bank carries some costs in terms of foregone anti‐inflationary credibility; and (iv) SADC‐wide symmetric monetary union continues to be beneficial for all except Mauritius, although the gains for existing CMA members are likely to be limited.
Cette thèse tire les enseignements de la zone Euro qui représente la phase la plus avancée de l’intégration économique au sein de l’Union Européenne. Cependant, force est de constater que la zone ...euro affiche des lacunes en termes de mécanismes d’ajustement alternatifs. Ainsi malgré les avancées considérables, cette intégration économique et institutionnelle semble insuffisante pour absorber les chocs asymétriques sur les États. Nous avons utilisé diverses approches (baromètres de convergence, classification par arbre de décision et modèle de Merton) pour évaluer l’efficacité des politiques économiques au sein de l’UEMOA. Nous avons étudié, à partir de données empiriques allant de 1994 à 2015, l’hétérogénéité des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques entre les pays de la zone et leurs évolutions dans le temps. Contrairement aux attentes, des différences existent encore entre les pays. Selon l’objectif de politique macroéconomique mesuré (croissance économique, inflation, chômage), nos résultats révèlent que les changements dans les performances des groupes constitués sont expliqués soit par des migrations entre les groupes, soit par les changements à l’intérieur des groupes. Finalement, nos investigations montrent que l’élargissement à la CEDEAO amplifie ces divergences. Nos résultats montrent enfin une bonne performance de la règle de Taylor comparativement à l’inflation cible depuis 2003. Cette règle serait une "conduite de base" adaptable à la politique de la future banque centrale après avoir levé la difficulté à déterminer les valeurs de référence de l’équation dans ces espaces économiques hétérogènes.
This paper draws lessons from the Eurozone which represents the most advanced stage of economic integration in the European Union. However the alternative adjustment mechanisms in place there prove to be insufficient to absorb asymmetric shocks endured by member states. We used various methods such as convergence barometers, decision tree classification, and Merton model in order to assess the effectiveness of the economic policies in place within the WAEMU . We studied, through empirical data from 1994 to 2015, the heterogeneity of the main macroeconomic aggregates between the countries of the area and it’s evolution over time. Contrary to expectations, discrepancies still exist between countries. In accordance with the goal of macroeconomic policy measured, our results reveal that either the effects of migration between groups, or the changes in performance within groups give an account of the changes in performance inside groups. Our investigations eventually brings to light that the expansion to the ECOWAS amplifies the divergences.Lastly, our results show that the Taylor rule has been well put to use in comparison to targeted inflation since 2003. This rule can be regarded as a "basic rule" adaptable to the policy of the future central bank after having lifted the difficulty in determining the reference values in these heterogeneous economic areas.
On s’interroge dans cet article sur la conception de l’intégration financière adoptée par l’Eurosystème. On montre, tout d’abord, que les actions entreprises pour créer un espace financier homogène ...n’ont pas permis de faire converger les comportements et les systèmes financiers en Europe. On cherche ensuite à expliquer ces différences persistances par la diversité des modèles économiques et sociaux (ou des configurations institutionnelles) dans les pays de la zone : il n’existe donc pas a priori de système financier optimal. Enfin, la comparaison des transformations opérées en Allemagne et en France par la libéralisation et la globalisation financières fait apparaître des évolutions très contrastées qui conduisent à douter de la stratégie d’intégration choisie et en conséquence de la viabilité de l’union monétaire.
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