In a model with imperfect money, credit and reserve markets, we examine if an inflation-targeting central bank applying the funds rate operating procedure to indirectly control market interest rates ...also needs a monetary aggregate as policy instrument. We show that if private agents use information extracted from money and financial markets to form inflation expectations and if interest rate pass-through is incomplete, the central bank can use a narrow monetary aggregate and the discount interest rate as independent and complementary policy instruments to reinforce the credibility of its announcements and the role of inflation target as a nominal anchor for inflation expectations. This study shows how a monetary policy strategy combining inflation targeting and monetary targeting can be conceived to guarantee macroeconomic stability and the credibility of monetary policy. Friedman's
k-percent money growth rule, which can generate dynamic instability, and two alternative stabilizing feedback monetary targeting rules are examined.
► Incomplete interest rate pass-through justifies a two-pillar monetary policy strategy. ► The funds rate operating procedure and monetary targeting are complementary. ► Friedman's
k-percent money growth rule can generate dynamic instability. ► Stable money growth rules must suitably react to variations in inflation or output.
Faced with real and nominal shocks, what should a benevolent central bank do, fix the money growth rate or target the inflation rate? In this paper, we make a first attempt at studying the optimal ...choice of monetary policy instruments in a micro-founded model of money. Specifically, we produce an overlapping generations economy in which limited communication and stochastic relocation creates an endogenous transactions role for fiat money. We find that when the shocks are real, welfare is higher under money growth targeting; when the shocks are nominal and not large, welfare is higher under inflation targeting. While under inflation targeting, it is always optimal to pursue an expansionary policy, it is never optimal to do so under money growth targeting.
This paper characterises Romania's experience with anti-inflationary monetary targeting over the period 1999-2005 prior to the country's switch to inflation targeting. We uncover the National Bank of ...Romania's preferences, conditional on an estimated macro-model. We find that Romania's monetary targeting regime can be characterised by a concern for price stability and an additional role for smoothing of the central bank's instrument (base money growth). Exchange rate variability and output gap stability appear not to significantly enter the National Bank of Romania's objective function.
Les difficultés rencontrées par la banque centrale du Vietnam dans la dernière décennie, qui se sont traduites par des écarts importants par rapport à l'objectif d'inflation, nourrissent le débat sur ...l'adéquation subsistante de l'actuelle stratégie de politique monétaire en place dans le pays depuis 1992. Partant de cette idée, cette thèse a pour objectif d'examiner la pertinence du ciblage monétaire quantitatif. De plus, celle-ci recommande quelques aménagements pour améliorer l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Après un chapitre introductif, le chapitre 2 propose un état des lieux de l'économie du Vietnam. Les deux chapitres suivants enquêtent sur la satisfaction des exigences imposées dans le cadre du ciblage monétaire, à savoir l'existence d'une fonction stable de demande de monnaie à long terme (traitée dans le chapitre 3) et celle d'un pouvoir prédictif significatif sur l'inflation que possède la monnaie (testée dans le chapitre 4). Il s'avère que la fonction de demande de monnaie est stable, et que l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'évolution des agrégats monétaires a un pouvoir prédictif sur l'inflation n'est pas rejetée. Le ciblage monétaire se trouve ainsi toujours approprié pour le pays. Les deux derniers chapitres calculent et suggèrent les indicateurs de politique monétaire à travers des évaluations exhaustives. Il s'agit des mesures de l'inflation structurelle et d'un indice synthétique des conditions financières, qui se révèlent utile pour la prise de décision de la banque centrale.
Difficulties of the central bank of Vietnam during the last decade in controlling price inflation and securing its inflation goals have launched and nurtured a vigorous debate on whether the current monetary policy strategy, in place since 1992 remains always appropriate. lnspired of this idea, this thesis aims to examine the relevance of the quantitative monetary targeting framework. Furthermore, the thesis recommends some arrangement in order to improve monetary policy efficiency. After an introductory chapter, Chapter 2 propose the state of the art of the economy of Vietnam. Two following chapters investigate the conditions that an effective money targeting strategy requires and whether they are fully satisfied in Vietnam. Indeed, the existence of a stable money demand function in the long run is considered in Chapter 3, and a significant predictive power that money should have on inflation is tested in Chapter 4. It is proved that the money demand function is stable and the hypothesis according to which money growth may forecast future inflation cannot be rejected. The monetary targeting is therefore still relevant for Vietnam. The last two chapters compute and suggest various monetary policy indicators by means of exhaustive evaluation exercises. Different core inflation measure and a composite index of financial conditions are introduced, which are justified to be meaningful for the policy making process of the central bank.
This article studies a two-period game between the public and a central bank about whose ability to commit to an announced target the public is uncertain. The central bank chooses between announcing ...a target for an intermediate variable (money growth) and its goal variable, inflation. Prior to setting its instrument, the central bank receives private, noisy information about the link between money growth and inflation. Monetary targeting facilitates communication of the central bank's type, in that the probability of separation is always higher than under inflation targeting. This advantage of monetary targets from a dependable central bank's perspective is outweighed for most parameter values by the advantage of inflation targeting in terms of inflation control. If the regime choice is treated as a strategic decision, over a large range of parameter values both central banks choose the regime that a dependable central bank would prefer.
This paper studies monetary policy in an optimizing two-country model. We suppose a two-step production process that is associated with vertical trade. Prices of final consumption goods are sticky ...and pass-through can be incomplete. Monetary authorities should respond to both home and foreign shocks in this set-up. Which simple, i.e. non-optimal, targeting rule best supports the welfare maximizing policy hinges critically on the degree of the cross-country interdependence in production and the relative importance of productivity and cost-push shocks. We argue that the relative volatility of productivity and cost-push shocks determines whether the monetary authority should follow a price targeting rule whereas the degree of vertical integration determines which simple price targeting rule (producer or consumer price index targeting) is best.
PDF
