During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven ...for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the Bundesbank provided the role model for the European Central Bank. Hence, we examine an episode of lasting importance in European monetary history. The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the Bundesbank monetary policy strategy contributed to this success. We analyze the strategy as it was conceived, communicated and refined by the Bundesbank itself. We propose a theoretical framework (following Söderström, 2005) where monetary targeting is interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. We derive an interest rate rule and show empirically that it approximates the way the Bundesbank conducted monetary policy over the period 1975-1998. We compare the Bundesbank's monetary policy rule with those of the FED and of the Bank of England. We find that the Bundesbank's policy reaction function was characterized by strong persistence of policy rates as well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response to the level of the output gap was not significant. In our empirical analysis we use real-time data, as available to policy-makers at the time. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E41, E52, E58.
Finding a stable money demand relationship is considered essential for the formulation and conduction of an efficient monetary policy. Consequently, numerous theoretical and empirical studies have ...been conducted in both developed and developing countries to evaluate the determinants and the stability of the demand for money function for various monetary aggregates. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical work, tracing the contributions of several researchers beginning from the classical economists, and explains relevant empirical issues in modelling and estimating money demand function for Romania. The paper models the empirical relationship between broader definition of money, output, interest rates, inflation and exchange rate in Romania and examines the constancy of this relationship, especially in the light of financial reform and deregulation of financial markets. The demand for broad money in Romania has been stable between 1996 and 2002 despite of a pronounced financial liberalization. The analysis suggests that, in Romania in the long run the inflation is weakly exogenous for the money demand, which means that inflation is not a monetary phenomenon.
This paper is an attempt to contribute to the ongoing debate: should central bank of Pakistan adopt inflation targeting or continue with the monetary targeting as a monetary policy strategy? A ...pre-requisite for monetary targeting strategy is a stable money demand function, which in turn requires stability in velocity. Instability in velocity on the other hand is believed to stem from the volatility of the interest rate. The paper explores the stability of velocity of money in Pakistan. The results show that the base and broad money velocities are independent of the interest rate fluctuations. It is also found that all the three velocities (with respect to M0, M1, and M2) have stable relationship with their determinants. These findings validate use of monetary aggregates as nominal anchor.
During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven ...for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the Bundesbank provided the role model for the European Central Bank. Hence, we examine an episode of lasting importance in European monetary history. The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the Bundesbank monetary policy strategy contributed to this success. We analyze the strategy as it was conceived, communicated and refined by the Bundesbank itself. We propose a theoretical framework (following Söderström, 2005) where monetary targeting is interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. We derive an interest rate rule and show empirically that it approximates the way the Bundesbank conducted monetary policy over the period 1975-1998. We compare the Bundesbank's monetary policy rule with those of the FED and of the Bank of England. We find that the Bundesbank's policy reaction function was characterized by strong persistence of policy rates as well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response to the level of the output gap was not significant. In our empirical analysis we use real-time data, as available to policymakers at the time.
During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven ...for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the Bundesbank provided the role model for the European Central Bank. Hence, we examine an episode of lasting importance in European monetary history. The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the Bundesbank monetary policy strategy contributed to this success. We analyze the strategy as it was conceived, communicated and refined by the Bundesbank itself. We propose a theoretical framework (following Söderström, 2005) where monetary targeting is interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. We derive an interest rate rule and show empirically that it approximates the way the Bundesbank conducted monetary policy over the period 1975-1998. We compare the Bundesbank's monetary policy rule with those of the FED and of the Bank of England. We find that the Bundesbank's policy reaction function was characterized by strong persistence of policy rates as well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response to the level of the output gap was not significant. In our empirical analysis we use real-time data, as available to policy-makers at the time.
The objective of this study is to evaluate monetary targeting strategy in Pakistan by testing the Quantity Theory of Money and the income velocity of money stated by Monetarists and the endogenous ...money hypothesis postulated by the Post Keynesians. Our tests on the Pakistani data covering about thirty years reveal that the quantity theory is an inadequate explanation of inflation, income velocity of money is unstable, and money is endogenous. These results suggest rethinking on monetary targeting strategy in Pakistan.
Central bank can apply different kinds of monetary strategies. This paper analyses monetary strategy from the perspective of intermediate objectives. Right strategy should help to fulfil targeted ...goals. However, it is not easy to choose right strategy in right moment under certain economic conditions. This paper summarises basic principles, advantages, and disadvantages of four main strategies. Thus, it should simplify choice of the optimal one. Some practical aspects are explained through experience of several central banks and especially through example of the National Bank of Slovakia that applied gradually different strategies. These modifications were influenced by specific evolution of Slovak economy that has been typical for countries in transition. Thus, its experience can serve other countries that are in the beginning of transition process.
The paper reconstructs the origins of the quantity theory of money and its applications. Against the background of the history of money, it is shown that the theory was flexible enough to adapt to ...institutional change and thus succeeded in maintaining its relevance. To this day, it is useful as an analytical framework. Although, due to Goodhart's Law, it now has only limited potential to guide monetary policy and was consequently abandoned by most central banks, an empirical analysis drawing on a panel data set covering more than hundred countries from 1991 to the present confirms that the theory still holds: a positive correlation between the excess growth rate of the stock of money and the rate of inflation cannot be rejected. Yet, while the correlation holds for the whole sample, proportionality is driven by a small number of influential observations with very high inflation
Monetary growth targeting is often seen as an effective way of supporting macroeconomic stability. We scrutinize this property by checking whether multiplicity of equilibria, in the form of local ...indeterminacy (LI), can be both a possible and a plausible outcome of a basic model with an exogenous money growth policy rule. We address the question in different versions of the Sidrauski-Brock-Calvo framework, which isolates the contribution of monetary non-neutralities and monetary targeting. In line with previous literature, real effects of money are found to be a necessary condition for LI: we identify a single pattern for their magnitude if they are to be sufficient too. While the most elementary setups are unable to plausibly generate large enough real effects, LI becomes significantly more likely as one realistically considers additional channels of transmission of monetary expansions onto the real economy: in particular, we show that models in which holding money is valuable to both households and firms may yield a LI outcome for empirically relevant parameterizations, therefore casting some doubt on the stabilizing properties of monetary monitoring.
Using a small empirical model of inflation, output, and money estimated on US data, we compare the relative performance of monetary targeting and inflation targeting. The results show that monetary ...targeting would be quite inefficient, with both higher inflation and output variability. This is true even with a nonstochastic money demand formulation. Our results are also robust to using a P* model of inflation. Therefore, in these popular frameworks, there is no support for the prominent role given to money growth in the Eurosystem's monetary policy strategy.
