•A database for news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is developed.•Using the ARMAX model, systemic risk implications of the news are investigated.•The systemic instability costs of the conflict ...go beyond Russia and Ukraine.•Economic sanctions pose significant systemic risk spillovers to Europe and the USA.
The Russia–Ukraine conflict has increased systemic vulnerabilities of the global financial system. We develop a database of news events and investigate the systemic risk implications of the conflict on Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, and China. Results show that systemic instability costs of the conflict go beyond Russia and Ukraine. Sanctions cause systemic risk spillovers to European countries and the USA. Study findings caution against the accumulation of systemic risk as sanctions may adversely affect the rest of the world aside from the main target - Russia.
The Russia-Ukraine war is disrupting the global supply chains contributing to soaring world market prices of many commodities whose repercussions are sought to be severe for many African countries. ...This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers on Ethiopia’s economy. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study shows that GDP, wage rates, and households’ consumption in the country decline. The effects of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are particularly notable and unequal across production sectors. Crop growing activities tend to substitute inorganic fertilizers by animal manure. The overall effects on urban households are relatively severe compared to the effects on rural households. Increasing fertilizer prices tighten the competition for the use of animal manure as fertilizer (in crop cultivation) and as fuel (by households). Promoting biogas digesters among rural households would encourage the optimal use of animal manure.
The Russia-Ukraine war is a multifaceted beast. It ranges from fighting on the ground to high diplomacy, from domestic anti-war protests to international weapon supplies, from justification through ...sham referenda to coercion via economic sabotage, and from operational misdirection to covering up war crimes. There are close connections between these facets: the collapse of a front leads to the discovery of mass graves; the delivery of weapon systems depends on Zelensky’s appeal to the international community; sham referenda followed by annexation enable accusations of unwillingly mobilised soldiers who refuse to defend the motherland. This volume sheds light on the Russia-Ukraine war, exploring this multitude of facets and their interconnections. Bringing together the expertise of our colleagues at the Netherlands Defense Academy (NLDA) allows us to adopt a distinctively interdisciplinary approach, offering uniquely comprehensive and timely reflections on this armed conflict. The 27 chapters in this volume are centered around five themes. The first section covers historical and contemporary narratives, intelligence, digital technologies, and communication strategies. The second provides in-depth analyses of the operational aspects of the war, including warfighting on land, at sea, in the air, as well as in the space and cyber domains. The third section on international involvement covers topics such as sanctions, burden sharing, arms support and implications of the war on international institutions and the world order. The fourth provides analyses of the normative framework that applies to the Russia-Ukraine war. Finally, the fifth section deals with the way armed forces can transform their organisations and learn from this war, and concludes with questions on how and when the Russia-Ukraine war might end.
The slow advance of the Russian army in Ukraine in the first stage of its invasion and its eventual withdrawal from the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions in April 2022 has raised several questions among ...analysts. Although this situation can be explained by numerous factors, this research note highlights how the Russian military's organization of its logistics and resupply around railways has played a significant role in its failure to achieve the Kremlin's initial objectives.
•We study geopolitical risk hedging with different asset classes during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.•We apply wavelet coherence analysis.•Asset classes exhibited unequal sensitivity to ...geopolitical risk.•Bonds and stocks displayed strong coherence for multi-week horizons, whereas currencies, silver and gold were affected at shorter periods.•The Swiss franc, green bonds, gold, silver, and real estate were the most resistant to geopolitical risk fluctuations.
We examine the hedging properties of different asset classes as impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. We employ wavelet coherence analysis to study the impact of geopolitical risk on various types of securities. We found that different asset classes exhibited unequal risk sensitivity in both magnitude and timescale. Bonds and stocks displayed strong coherence for multi-week horizons, whereas currencies were affected at shorter periods. The green bonds, gold, silver, Swiss franc, and real estate proved the most resistant to geopolitical risk fluctuations. Hence, they may serve as the best hedge against geopolitical risk.
This study employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto Regressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach to investigate the dynamic interconnections, portfolio performance, and hedging effectiveness ...across hydrogen economy, renewable energy markets, equities, and energy commodities amidst the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Our findings reveal a consistent level of average connectedness during both black swan events, with dynamic connectedness reaching its peak during the COVID-19 crisis. While some assets (hydrogen economy index, renewable, solar and clean technology index) persistently function as net transmitters, the others (geothermal index, crude oil, natural gas, biofuel, and gold) consistently act as net receivers. We also find that the role of equity indices (wind energy, fuel cell, FTSE_100, and S&P 500) as net transmitters or receivers changes over time. The network plot results show that the hydrogen economy typically functions as shock transmitters for equity market indices and commodities. Portfolio analysis underscores the superior risk-adjusted performance of the minimum variance (connectedness) portfolio during the COVID-19 crisis in comparison to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, our examination of effective hedge and portfolio strategies demonstrates that managed collateralized portfolio weights of hydrogen economy and renewable energy assets (equities) in the minimum variance portfolio increase (decrease) from 7% to 12% (53%–41%) during the COVID-19 crisis, and subsequently decline (rise) further to 6% (53%) amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These findings suggest a preference for hydrogen economy and renewable energy assets as hedging instruments in health-related financial crises over crises precipitated by military conflicts.
•Is the Russian-Ukraine war explaining cryptocurrency price falls?•Return coherences with attention on the Russia-Ukraine War.•Co-movements between War attention and cryptocurrencies.•War attention ...negatively (positively) affects all cryptocurrencies in the short term.•Results consistent with cryptocurrency investors responding to War attention by seeking liquidity.
Cryptocurrency values have recently fallen substantially. Why? We examine the impact of attention on the Russia-Ukraine War, proxied by Google Trends, on cryptocurrencies (and equity) to measure the returns coherences. Using quantile cross-spectral analysis and daily data for February 24, 2022–June 21, 2022, we observe that co-movements between War attention and cryptocurrencies depends on investment horizon and market state. Under bearish and normal (bull) markets, War attention negatively (positively) affects all cryptocurrencies in the short term. Results are consistent with cryptocurrency investors responding to War attention by seeking liquidity, with recent price falls explained as sell-offs by large holders.
El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar cómo medios de la prensa internacional (El País, CNN, Los Ángeles Times, DW y Euro News) reproducen las estrategias lingüístico-discursivas que las ...elites estadounidenses y sus aliados usan para deslegitimar las acciones y los discursos de sus enemigos como la identidad, las acciones y su discurso. El marco teórico establece que las estrategias lingüístico-discursivas empleadas por las elites gubernamentales y mediáticas en la representación del enemigo son la recontextualización y revalorización del enemigo en sus prácticas y como actor social (VAN LEEUWEN, 1993, 1999). La metodología incluye 60 noticias en orden sincrónico. Las conclusiones demuestran que estos textos son un constructo ideológico articulado para evaluar la legitimidad de las acciones del enemigo-ruso.
