Recently, a number of non-pharmacological interventions for dementia symptoms were evaluated using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and found to be both effective and socially worthwhile. What is missing ...is a comparison of evaluations for these interventions with pharmaceutical interventions approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to see which interventions should be given priority in public expenditure budgets aiming to reduce dementia symptoms. This paper fills this knowledge gap by carrying out a CBA of FDA-approved medications using a large national data set provided by the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). We find that the pharmaceutical medications were actually counterproductive, and therefore social welfare would be substantially improved by not investing in these medications. This therefore means that non-pharmaceutical interventions should be given higher priority at this time.
This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project ...management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits – used in the business cases, cost–benefit analyses, and social and environmental impact assessments that typically support decisions on projects – are commonly significantly different from actual ex post costs and benefits, and are therefore poor predictors of the actual value and viability of projects. Second, it is discussed how Kahneman and Tversky's theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may help explain and remedy this situation through quality control of decisions. Third, it is described what quality control and due diligence are in the context of project management, and an eight-step procedure is outlined for due diligence based on the outside view. Fourth, the procedure is tested on a real-life, multibillion-dollar project, organized as a public–private partnership. Finally, Akerlof and Shiller's recent discussion in economics of “firing the forecaster” is discussed together with its relevance to project management. In sum, the paper demonstrates the need, the theoretical basis, a practical methodology, and a real-life example for how to de-bias project management using quality control and due diligence based on the outside view.
► Front-end estimates are poor predictors of actual value and viability of projects. ► 8-step procedure for quality control of decisions developed and tested. ► Based on behavioral economics and agency theory. ► Applicable to business cases, CBA, EIA, and SIA. ► Some of these so bad that forecasters should be fired and/or sued.
The aim of this study is to estimate the direct and indirect economic burdens of periodontal disease in the US and in Europe.
We used the most recent data available for the US and for Europe (32 ...European countries) to estimate the cost of periodontal disease. Global health, dental and periodontal expenditures were estimated. We tried to estimate the direct and the indirect costs of periodontitis. Indirect costs, those related to productivity losses, are a consequence of periodontal disease proper, plus edentulism and caries because of periodontal disease.
In 2018, the aggregate cost in the US was estimated at $3.49B and €2.52B in Europe. Indirect costs because of periodontal disease amounted to $150.57B (95% confidence interval CI: 103.32-189.87) in the US countries and €156.12B (95% CI: 123.72-221.86) in Europe. The majority of the projected indirect costs were because of edentulism related to periodontal disease and periodontal disease. Indirect costs were the majority of the estimated economic impact with an average of 0.73% (95% CI: 0.50%-0.93%) of annual gross domestic product in the US and 0.99% (95% CI: 0.78%-1.40%) in Europe.
Periodontal disease caused an estimated loss of $154.06B in the US and €158.64B in Europe, in 2018. These results show that the economic burden of periodontal disease is significant and its indirect costs are impactful.
The power-gas-coupling can realize the cascade utilization of energy in the integrated energy system, which is conducive to improving the utilization of energy and reducing pollution gases emissions. ...With the installation of smart metering, two-way communication between suppliers and consumers is feasible, which enables the implementation of demand response. A generic optimal planning model is proposed to assess the economic and environmental benefits of the capacity allocation of the grid-connected integrated energy system considering both price-based demand response and incentive-based demand response respectively. The optimal planning problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model with the objective to minimize the total annual cost. The results from three configuration modes are compared in the case study, which illustrate the economic and environmental benefits from demand response. In addition, the impact of the sales capacity constraint on the grid and the fluctuation of electricity and gas prices on the planning of the integrated energy system are also extensively studied considering demand response.
•A optimal planning model on the grid-connected integrated energy system is proposed.•A price-based demand response strategy is designed.•Comparative cost-benefit analysis is undertaken.•Impacts of the external parameters on the planning are investigated.
This paper discusses the empirical literature on the economic consequences of disclosure and financial reporting regulation, drawing on U.S. and international evidence. Given the policy relevance of ...research on regulation, we highlight the challenges with (1) quantifying regulatory costs and benefits, (2) measuring disclosure and reporting outcomes, and (3) drawing causal inferences from regulatory studies. Next, we discuss empirical studies that link disclosure and reporting activities to firm-specific and market-wide economic outcomes. Understanding these links is important when evaluating regulation. We then synthesize the empirical evidence on the economic effects of disclosure regulation and reporting standards, including the evidence on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption. Several important conclusions emerge. We generally lack evidence on market-wide effects and externalities from regulation, yet such evidence is central to the economic justification of regulation. Moreover, evidence on causal effects of disclosure and reporting regulation is still relatively rare. We also lack evidence on the real effects of such regulation. These limitations provide many research opportunities. We conclude with several specific suggestions for future research.
This paper investigates the valuation of crowding in public transport trips and its implications in demand estimation and cost-benefit analysis. We use a choice-based stated preference survey where ...crowding levels are represented by means of specially designed pictures, and use these data to estimate flexible discrete choice models. We assume that the disutility associated with travelling under crowded conditions is proportional to travel time. Our results are consistent with and extend previous findings in the literature: passenger density has a significant effect on the utility of travelling by public transport; in fact, the marginal disutility of travel time in a crowded vehicle (6standing-passengers/m2) is 2.5 times higher than in a vehicle with available seats. We also compare the effects of different policies for improving bus operations, and the effect of adding crowding valuation in cost-benefit analysis. In doing that, we endogenise the crowding level as the result of the equilibrium between demand and supplied bus capacity. Our results indicate that important benefits may be accrued from policies designed to reduce crowding, and that ignoring crowding effects significantly overestimate the bus travel demand the benefits associated with pure travel time reductions.
•Autonomous vehicles may lead to safer roads, less congestion and reduced parking.•AVs may also result in fewer vehicles per capita, but more VMT overall.•Each AV is estimated to provide $2000–$4750 ...per year in societal benefits.•AV barriers include cost, liability, licensing, security, and privacy concerns.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent a potentially disruptive yet beneficial change to our transportation system. This new technology has the potential to impact vehicle safety, congestion, and travel behavior. All told, major social AV impacts in the form of crash savings, travel time reduction, fuel efficiency and parking benefits are estimated to approach $2000 to per year per AV, and may eventually approach nearly $4000 when comprehensive crash costs are accounted for. Yet barriers to implementation and mass-market penetration remain. Initial costs will likely be unaffordable. Licensing and testing standards in the U.S. are being developed at the state level, rather than nationally, which may lead to inconsistencies across states. Liability details remain undefined, security concerns linger, and without new privacy standards, a default lack of privacy for personal travel may become the norm. The impacts and interactions with other components of the transportation system, as well as implementation details, remain uncertain. To address these concerns, the federal government should expand research in these areas and create a nationally recognized licensing framework for AVs, determining appropriate standards for liability, security, and data privacy.
Mangrove ecosystems are targeted for many conservation and rehabilitation efforts due to their ability to store large amounts of carbon in their living biomass and soil. Traditional methods to ...monitor above-ground biomass (AGB) rely on on-ground measurements, which are expensive, labour intensive and cover small spatial scales. Structure from Motion and Multi-View Stereo reconstructions from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles imagery (UAV-SfM) have the potential to increase fieldwork efficiency by providing a greater amount of spatial information in less time. However, there is still a need to assess the ability of UAV-SfM to retrieve structural information of mangrove forests, which could pose challenges in areas of high forest complexity and density.
In this study we successfully used UAV-SfM data to estimate height, canopy diameter and AGB of natural and rehabilitated mangrove forests across two regions of the southeastern coast of Australia. We used a variable window filter algorithm to detect trees with an 80% detection rate when considering the top canopy. Individual tree canopy segmentation was performed using a marker-controlled watershed segmentation with two sets of constraining markers: treetops and a minimum height below which a pixel is not considered part of a tree.
Direct comparison with on-ground measurements at the regional level showed no significant difference in tree height and AGB medians when only top canopy was considered. Similarly, median canopy diameters were not significantly different in natural areas of both regions, but significant differences were found in rehabilitated areas. UAV-SfM estimates of AGB were on average 15% lower in natural areas and 10% higher in rehabilitated areas when compared to on-ground measurements and followed a strong linear relationship close to the ideal one-to-one relationship.
Additionally, we performed a cost-benefit analysis of the two methodologies. UAV-SfM methods can save almost AU$ 50,000 per ha when compared to on-ground measurements and become cost-effective (based on total costs) after just 15 days of surveys. The methods described in this study open the possibility for easily repeatable, low-cost UAV-SfM surveys for local managers by providing a faster, more cost-effective approach for monitoring mangrove forests over larger areas than traditional on-ground surveys while maintaining forest inventory data accuracy in both natural and rehabilitated mangrove forests.
•UAV imagery can be used to assess AGB of natural and rehabilitated mangrove forests.•Mangrove tree height and canopy diameter accurately estimated•UAVs are more cost-effective than on-ground surveys (AU$ 50,000 savings per ha).
Overview of Cost-effectiveness Analysis Sanders, Gillian D; Maciejewski, Matthew L; Basu, Anirban
JAMA : the journal of the American Medical Association,
04/2019, Volume:
321, Issue:
14
Journal Article
PDF
