Migration data remains scarce, particularly in the context of developing countries. We demonstrate how geo-referenced online search data can be used to measure migration intentions in origin ...countries and to predict bilateral migration flows. Our approach provides strong additional predictive power for international migration flows when compared to reference models from the migration and trade literature. We provide evidence, based on survey data, that our measures partly reflect genuine migration intentions and that they outperform any of the established predictors of migration flows in terms of predictive power, especially in the bilateral within dimension. Our findings contribute to the literature by (1) providing a novel way for the measurement of migration intentions, (2) allowing real-time predictions of current migration flows ahead of official statistics, and (3) improving the performance of conventional models of migration flows.
•Lack of migration data limits research and policy applications.•We use geo-referenced online search data to predict migration flows.•Strong predictive performance compared to benchmark models.•Method can help to measure migration intentions and facilitate policy predictions.
We examine natural disasters and long-run climatic factors as potential determinants of international migration, implementing a panel dataset of bilateral migration flows from 1960 to 2000. We find ...no direct effect of long-run climatic factors on international migration across our entire sample. These results are robust when conditioning on origin-country characteristics, when considering migrants returning home, and when accounting for the potential endogeneity of migrant networks. Rather, we find evidence of indirect effects of environmental factors operating through wages. We find that epidemics and miscellaneous incidents spur international migration, and there is strong evidence that natural disasters beget greater flows of migrants to urban environs.
•Previous internal migration is significantly associated with the intention to migrate internationally.•Urban residence is positively associated with international migration intentions.•Internal ...migration dominates over place of residence in terms of its contribution to shaping international migration intentions.•Internal migrants to urban areas are the most likely to develop international migration intentions, followed by migrants to rural areas.•The weakening of the attachment to place of origin plays a key role in linking internal and international migration processes.
Internal and international migration are often thought of as separate processes, rarely analysed together in a coherent framework. This paper examines, based on data for 21 Sub-Saharan African countries, how previous internal migration can shape international migration intentions – i.e. desiring and planning to move abroad. We find that individuals who migrated to urban areas are on average the most likely to develop international migration intentions, followed by those who migrated to rural areas, those who live in urban areas and have not moved internally, and lastly come rural residents who have not moved internally. This highlights the role of migration to urban areas as a potential driver of international emigration. The findings support our conceptual framework, which hypothesizes internal migrants have lower international migration costs, both monetary and non-monetary, and accumulate resources and experience that help overcome constraints related to international migration. Internal migration is also found to have a stronger association with desire to migrate abroad than with planning, indicating that weakening the attachment to place of origin may be the dominant mechanism linking internal and international migration processes.
Emigration and democracy Docquier, Frédéric; Lodigiani, Elisabetta; Rapoport, Hillel ...
Journal of development economics,
05/2016, Volume:
120
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
International migration is an important determinant of institutions, not considered so far in the development literature. Using cross-sectional and panel estimation for a large sample of developing ...countries, we find that openness to emigration has a positive effect on home-country institutional development (as measured by standard democracy indices). The results are robust to a wide range of specifications and identification methods. Remarkably, the cross-sectional estimates are fully in line with the implied long-run relationship from dynamic panel regressions.
•We model the effect of emigration on institutional quality in developing countries.•We empirically show that openness to emigration promotes democratization at home.•The effect is fully driven by emigration to rich, highly democratic countries.•The result holds mostly for de facto indicators of institutional quality.
Remittances and temporary migration Dustmann, Christian; Mestres, Josep
Journal of development economics,
05/2010, Volume:
92, Issue:
1
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
In this paper we study the remittance behavior of immigrants and how it relates to temporary versus permanent migration plans. We use a unique data source that provides unusual detail on remittances ...and return plans, and follows the same household over time. Our data allows us also to distinguish between different purposes of remittances. We analyze the association between individual and household characteristics and the geographic location of the family as well as return plans, and remittances. The panel nature of our data allows us to condition on household fixed effects. To address measurement error and reverse causality, we use an instrumental variable estimator. Our results show that changes in return plans are related to large changes in remittance flows.
We analyze the effects of top tax rates on international migration of football players in 14 European countries since 1985. Both country case studies and multinomial regressions show evidence of ...strong mobility responses to tax rates, with an elasticity of the number of foreign (domestic) players to the net-of-tax rate around one (around 0.15). We also find evidence of sorting effects (low taxes attract high-ability players who displace low-ability players) and displacement effects (low taxes on foreigners displace domestic players). Those results can be rationalized in a simple model of migration and taxation with rigid labor demand.
Eight questions about brain drain Gibson, John; McKenzie, David
The Journal of economic perspectives,
07/2011, Volume:
25, Issue:
3
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
"The term 'brain drain' dominates popular discourse on high-skilled migration, and for this reason, we use it in this article. However, as Harry Johnson noted, it is a loaded phrase implying serious ...loss. It is far from clear that such a loss actually occurs in practice; indeed, there is an increasing recognition of the possible benefits that skilled migration can offer both for migrants and for sending countries. This paper builds upon a recent wave of empirical research to answer eight key questions underlying much of the brain drain debate: 1) What is brain drain? 2) Why should economists care about it? 3) Is brain drain increasing? 4) Is there a positive relationship between skilled and unskilled migration? 5) What makes brain drain more likely? 6) Does brain gain exist? 7) Do high-skilled workers remit, invest, and share knowledge back home? 8) What do we know about the fiscal and production externalities of brain drain?" (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku). Forschungsmethode: empirisch; Metaanalyse. Die Untersuchung bezieht sich auf den Zeitraum 2005 bis 2009.
International migration is a global phenomenon that is growing in scope, complexity and impact. Migrants have several health disparities and promoting migrant health is increasingly recognized as a ...global public health priority. At this critical point in history we have the responsibility and opportunity to promote the health of the migrant population and to present a positive migrant narrative. This process has started and we need to continue the momentum.
This paper presents empirical evidence on immigration flows into the OECD countries during the period 1990–2000. Our results indicate that network effects are strong, but vary between different ...groups of welfare states and between countries according to the type of immigration policy being applied. Network effects seem to be less important in the Nordic countries which also seem to attract immigrants from the lowest income level source countries. We do not find clear evidence that selection effects measured by migration flows being sensitive to differences in public social expenditures have had a major influence on the observed migration patterns until now. This may partly be explained by restrictive migration policies which may have dampened the potential selection effects.
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