This paper presents empirical evidence on immigration flows into the OECD countries during the period 1990–2000. Our results indicate that network effects are strong, but vary between different ...groups of welfare states and between countries according to the type of immigration policy being applied. Network effects seem to be less important in the Nordic countries which also seem to attract immigrants from the lowest income level source countries. We do not find clear evidence that selection effects measured by migration flows being sensitive to differences in public social expenditures have had a major influence on the observed migration patterns until now. This may partly be explained by restrictive migration policies which may have dampened the potential selection effects.
There is considerable debate regarding the relative contribution of international migrants’ remittances to sustainable economic development. While officially recorded remittances to developing ...countries have increased over the last decade, research has not come to a consensus over whether remittances have a positive or negative impact on long-run growth. This paper argues that contradictory findings have emerged when looking at the remittances-growth link because of an omitted variable bias: specifically, remittances will be more likely to contribute to longer-term growth in countries with higher quality political and economic policies and institutions.
In this study, we use cross‐country bilateral data to quantify a two‐step process of international migration and its aggregate determinants. We first analyze which country‐specific factors affect the ...probability that individuals join the pool of potential (aspiring) migrants. Then, we consider the bilateral and destination country factors that affect the frequency at which potential migrants turn into actual migrants. Using information on potential migrants from World Gallup surveys and on actual migrants from national censuses for 138 origin countries and 30 major destinations between 2000 and 2010, we analyze economic, policy, cultural, and network determinants of each step. We find that the size of the network of previous migrants and the average income per person at destination are crucial determinants of the size of the pool of potential migrants. Economic growth in the destination country, on the other hand, is the main economic generator of migration opportunities for a given pool of potential migrants. We also find that college‐educated exhibit greater actual emigration rates mainly because of better chances in realizing their immigration potentials, rather than because of higher willingness to migrate.
Discussions of high-skilled mobility typically evoke migration patterns from poorer to wealthier countries, which ignore movements to and between developing countries. This paper presents, for the ...first time, a global overview of human capital mobility through bilateral migration stocks by gender and education in 1990 and 2000, and calculation of nuanced brain drain indicators. Building on newly collated data, we use a novel estimation procedure based on a pseudo-gravity model. We identify key determinants of international migration, which we subsequently use to impute missing data. Non-OECD destinations account for one-third of skilled-migration, while OECD destinations are declining in relative importance.
The COVID-19 pandemic slowed down international migration around the world, with many countries closing their international borders for a prolonged period of time. Although there are studies emerging ...that analyse the impact of COVID-19 and border control measures, more detailed migration flow data have been largely absent. In this research note, we examine changes to the patterns of immigration and emigration in Australia during the pandemic to further our understanding of the differing impacts of the pandemic on population groups. Foreign-born populations with large shares of international students recorded the highest declines in immigration, especially those from China, Malaysia, and South America. Immigration of seasonal workers from the Pacific Islands, on the other hand, exhibited increased levels. There were also unexpected situations where residents who made temporary visits outside Australia were unable to return, or persons who were visiting on short-term visas prolonged their stay. Results reveal how responsive migration can be to policies in a time of a population health crisis. The nuance and complexity of these patterns underscore the importance of migration dynamics, adding to our knowledge of the changing international migration profiles during the recent pandemic.
Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration Burzyński, Michał; Deuster, Christoph; Docquier, Frédéric ...
Journal of the European Economic Association,
06/2022, Volume:
20, Issue:
3
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
Open access
Abstract
This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on global migration and inequality. Accounting for the effects of changing temperatures, sea levels, and the frequency ...and intensity of natural disasters, we model the impact of climate change on productivity and utility in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. By endogenizing people’s migration decisions across millions of $5 \times 5$ km spatial cells, our approach sheds light on the magnitude and dyadic, education-specific structure of human migration induced by global warming. We find that climate change strongly intensifies global inequality and poverty, reinforces urbanization, and boosts migration from low- to high-latitude areas. Median projections suggest that climate change will induce a voluntary and a forced permanent relocation of 62 million working-age individuals over the course of the 21st century. Overall, under current international migration laws and policies, only a small fraction of people suffering from the negative effects of climate change manages to move beyond their homelands. We conclude that it is unlikely that climate shocks will induce massive international flows of migrants, except under combined extremely pessimistic climate scenarios and highly permissive migration policies. In contrast, poverty resulting from climate change is a real threat to all of us.
Will the fast expansion of cash-based programming in poor countries increase international migration? Theoretically, cash transfers may deter migration by increasing its opportunity cost or favor ...migration by relaxing liquidity, credit, and risk constraints. This paper evaluates the impact of a cash-for-work program on migration. Randomly selected households in Comoros were offered up to US$320 in cash in exchange for their participation in public works projects. We find that the program increased international migration by 38% from 7.8% to 10.8%. The increase in migration appears to be driven by the alleviation of liquidity and risk constraints.
•We revisit the aid-migration link using a gravity model of international migration.•We find a negative relationship between the total aid received and emigration rates.•We conclude that aid mainly ...affects migration through improved public services.•This is in line with the reorientation of aid towards social sectors under the MDGs.
While policymakers hope to stem migration flows by giving foreign aid, existing empirical evidence points in the opposite direction: by loosening budget constraints, aid tends to encourage people to emigrate. In this paper, we revisit the aid-migration link using a substantially extended and adjusted econometric approach based on a gravity model of international migration. In contrast to the previous literature, we obtain evidence of a negative relationship between the total aid a country receives and emigration rates. This even holds for the poorer part of recipient countries, which suggests that the budgetary constraint channel does not play a significant role in shaping migration decisions. The most plausible explanation for these contrasting results is that, unlike in previous studies, we use migrant flows rather than migrant stocks as the dependent variable. In substantive terms, the limited importance of the budgetary constraint channel might reflect that positive welfare effects of foreign aid tend to manifest themselves in improved public services for the poor rather than higher incomes, which is in line with the reorientation of foreign aid towards social sectors under the Millennium Development Goals.
Immigration is one of the most divisive political issues in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and several other Western countries. We estimate the impact of immigration on voting for ...far-left and far-right candidates in France, using panel data on presidential elections from 1988 to 2017. To derive causal estimates, we instrument more recent immigration flows by settlement patterns in 1968. We find that immigration increases support for far-right candidates. This is driven by low-educated immigrants from non-Western countries. We also find that immigration has a weak negative effect on support for far-left candidates, which could be explained by a reduced support for redistribution. We corroborate our analysis with a multinomial choice analysis using survey data.
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