In this study, we use cross‐country bilateral data to quantify a two‐step process of international migration and its aggregate determinants. We first analyze which country‐specific factors affect the ...probability that individuals join the pool of potential (aspiring) migrants. Then, we consider the bilateral and destination country factors that affect the frequency at which potential migrants turn into actual migrants. Using information on potential migrants from World Gallup surveys and on actual migrants from national censuses for 138 origin countries and 30 major destinations between 2000 and 2010, we analyze economic, policy, cultural, and network determinants of each step. We find that the size of the network of previous migrants and the average income per person at destination are crucial determinants of the size of the pool of potential migrants. Economic growth in the destination country, on the other hand, is the main economic generator of migration opportunities for a given pool of potential migrants. We also find that college‐educated exhibit greater actual emigration rates mainly because of better chances in realizing their immigration potentials, rather than because of higher willingness to migrate.
Abstract
This study examines how state and commercial actors construct gender, occupation, and nationality hierarchies in guest worker programs by comparing the migratory procedures for female ...domestic workers and male industrial operators from Indonesia. Based on 19 months of multi-sited ethnography and 86 interviews in Indonesia, Taiwan, and Singapore, I introduce the notion of multilateralism to theorize the stratification of global migration processes. In multilateral labor markets, governments, brokers, employers, and migrants in multiple countries contend for labor and employment. The homecare market is governed under the rubric of “selling a resume,” whereby Indonesian regulators and labor suppliers pass on recruitment costs to employers, in a context where migrant domestics possess myriad destination options due to their reputation fostered by a government-organized credentialing program. By contrast, Indonesian factory workers expend upfront payment to “buy a job” from destination brokers amid rivalry with migrants of other nationalities. The Indonesian state’s inattention to elevating industrial migrants’ standing through skill formation has compelled private recruiters to vie for jobs by extracting brokerage fees and developing a patchwork of selection mechanisms. This article finds that social actors’ capacity to negotiate the terms of labor exchange is contingent on their structural locations within a global hierarchy of competing nation-states.
•Cross-sectional studies suggest: Economic growth increases migration in poor countries.•Yet, neglecting systematic country differences risks an omitted variable bias.•The panel estimations in this ...paper yield contrasting results: Emigration falls as incomes increase.•These results imply that conducive economic policies can actually reduce emigration.
Comparing emigration rates of countries at different stages of economic development, an inverse u-shape emerges. Since the “migration hump” peaks at an average income of 6000 to 10 000 USD, economic progress in developing countries is often assumed to increase migration consistently. However, it is poorly understood to what extend country-level characteristics, individual incomes and other dimensions of development evoke this pattern, which limits its value for causal inference and concrete policy advice. In this paper we focus on the role of economic growth and investigate whether in developing countries emigration indeed increases with economic progress at shorter more policy-relevant time periods of up to 10 years. Using 35 years of data on migration flows to OECD destinations, we successfully reproduce the hump-shape in the cross-section. However, our more rigorous fixed effects panel estimations that exploit the variation over time robustly feature contrasting results: emigration rates fall as incomes increase. This finding holds independent of the level of income a country starts out at. In contrast to prevailing development emigration narratives, our results imply that rising individual incomes discourage emigration and hence conducive economic policies can reduce emigration. Our findings do not rule out that other slow-moving development dimensions such as educational advancement, demographic change, and structural economic transformation could still increase migration in the long term.
The 2022 edition of International Migration Outlook analyses recent developments in migration movements and the labour market inclusion of immigrants in OECD countries. It also monitors recent policy ...changes in migration governance and integration in OECD countries.
Interstate conflicts are complex and often have a multitude of causes. These factors can be social, economic, or cultural. One social factor receiving little attention in the literature is ...international migration. This paper uses climate shocks as a driver of emigration to study the causal impact of immigration on conflicts. We find that climate-induced immigration increases the probability that the destination country initiates a conflict against the origin. This effect is moderated by attitudes in the receiving country and features of the specific flows. The results imply that countries severely impacted by climate change may face an exodus of migrants and be forced to confront conflicts initiated by the destination countries of these migrants.
•Climate-induced migration is a driver of interstate conflicts.•The effect is moderated by attitudes in the receiving country.•Climate also directly contributes to interstate conflicts.
Why do governments form institutions devoted to emigrants and their descendants in the diaspora? Such institutions have become a regular feature of political life in many parts of the world: Over ...half all United Nations Member States now have one. Diaspora institutions merit research because they connect new developments in the global governance of migration with new patterns of national and transnational sovereignty and citizenship, and new ways of constructing individual identity in relation to new collectivities. But these institutions are generally overlooked. Migration policy is still understood as immigration policy, and research on diaspora institutions has been fragmented, case‐study dominated, and largely descriptive. In this article, I review and extend the relevant theoretical literature and highlight empirical research priorities. I argue that existing studies focus too exclusively on national‐level interests and ideas to explain how individual states tap diaspora resources and embrace these groups within the nation‐state. However, these approaches cannot explain the global spread of diaspora institutions. This, I argue, requires a comparative approach and greater attention to the role of efforts to create a coherent but decentralized system of global governance in the area of international migration.
How do households respond to overseas members' economic shocks? Overseas Filipinos in dozens of countries experienced sudden, heterogeneous changes in exchange rates during the 1997 Asian financial ...crisis. Appreciation of a migrant's currency against the Philippine peso leads to increases in household remittances from overseas. The estimated elasticity of Philippine-peso remittances with respect to the exchange rate is 0.60. Positive migrant shocks lead to enhanced human capital accumulation and entrepreneurship in origin households. Child schooling and educational expenditure rise, while child labour falls. Households also work more hours in self-employment, and become more likely to start relatively capital-intensive household enterprises.
•We study the impact of the 2015 earthquake on international labor migration in Nepal.•We apply different sets of difference-in-differences research design.•Number of work permits issued to Nepalese ...individuals for international migration decreased in districts severely affected by the earthquake.•We do not find a statistically significant effect of the earthquake on work permits issued to females.
The 2015 earthquake in Nepal affected approximately 8 million people, resulting in an economic loss of 10 billion US dollars. We exploit the quasi-random spatial and temporal nature of ground tremors to evaluate the impact of the 2015 earthquake on international labor migration per 100,000 population in Nepal. Using different sets of difference-in-differences research designs, we show that the number of work permits issued to Nepalese individuals for international migration decreased significantly in districts severely affected by the 2015 earthquake. Results further indicate that the effect of the earthquake on international labor migration is statistically significant and negative only among males. Together, these results provide strong evidence that natural disasters induce significant changes in labor market outcomes in a developing country setting.
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