The aim of this article is to assess the impact of the socio-economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on the residential property market. Research in this area has been conducted all over ...the world. The conclusions of these studies are inconclusive. In different countries and different cities, the changes in the property markets observed from 2020 onwards differ. These differences concern both prices and the number of transactions. In this situation, it is important to conduct research in as many markets as possible. Summaries of such research will allow certain patterns to be identified, which will provide a global perspective on how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the property market. The paper describes the short-term changes that have occurred in the formation of residential property prices and the number of transactions concluded. Separate analyses were conducted for property sales and rental transactions. The research was carried out on the data of over 5000 transactions in one of the biggest Polish cities - Szczecin. The city is divided administratively into four districts, which was also taken into account in the study. This made it possible to assess whether, just as the impact of the pandemic varied between cities and countries, it also varied at district level within one city. Confirming the diversity of impact will allow conclusions to be drawn as to whether the pandemic affects each market equally or whether different property markets are affected differently by restrictions and changes in the decisions of property market participants.
Many of the variables that describe property attributes are continuous. Additionally, during the digitization of the real estate market, analysts have access to a large amount of information. This ...overload of information (many observations, many attributes) makes it difficult to analyse the data and identify patterns. For continuous variables, therefore, discretization is recommended, which among other things: speeds up calculations, increases the transparency of results, facilitates interpretation, allows the use of variables with outliers.
The subject of the study is a mixed property offered for sale. The authors study the time of sale of properties depending on their area, using the method of duration analysis and the Kaplan-Meier estimator. However, these methods require attributes to be in categorical, nominal or symbolic form. In real estate research, continuous variables are most often discretized using expert knowledge and a lack of proposed solutions to this problem in the literature. There is also a lack of research on comparing the effectiveness of different discretization methods. Therefore, the paper proposes a discretization of real estate area according to thirteen selected methods. The result of the discretization should be, among others, disjoint intervals and significantly different time of sale in selected subgroups, which was the basis for assessing the effectiveness of selected methods.
Due to the large number of observations (3,732), methods referring to the number of observations and the range of values proved unsuitable, with equal-frequency methods generating a larger number of classes than equal-width methods. As a result of using methods discretizing the variable into too few classes (4), selling time did not differ significantly among subgroups. The best results were obtained using the minimum entropy method and expert indication of the interval span. The results can be used in the practice of selling residential real estate, as preliminary information about the time of sale depending on the area of the flat.
Il presente lavoro esamina le conseguenze della risoluzione per inadempimento di un contratto di leasing traslativo affrontando le questioni dell’efficacia intertemporale delle disposizioni della ...legge 124/2017 e della validità del patto di deduzione alla luce delle ultime pronunce della Cassazione. Prosegue, infine, con una breve indagine sulla natura della somma dovuta ai sensi dell’art. 1 comma 138 della legge 124/2017, in particolare sulla possibilità di rinvenire nella stessa una funzione compensativa; nonché sul rischio che la suddetta disciplina (e, a maggior ragione quella in materia di leasing immobiliare abitativo) possa costituire un mezzo per disciogliersi dal divieto del patto commissorio, che opera invece in materia di mutuo.
Abstract We develop housing overvaluation measures that are separate from local economic conditions and show that banks with greater exposure to such overvalued markets have higher mortgage ...delinquency and charge‐off rates and significantly higher probabilities of failure during the 2007–2009 financial crisis even after controlling for bank characteristics. While high house prices relative to fundamentals present a greater likelihood of house price correction, we find no evidence that banks managed this risk by building capital. We also show that our overvaluation measures are important in explaining individual mortgage loan defaults and could be used to improve bank risk management.
Across the Western United States, human development into the wildland urban interface (WUI) is contributing to increasing wildfire damage. Given that natural disasters often cause greater harm within ...socio-economically vulnerable groups, research is needed to explore the potential for disproportionate impacts associated with wildfire. Using Zillow Transaction and Assessment Database (ZTRAX), hereafter "Zillow", real estate data, we explored whether lower-priced structures were more likely to be damaged during the most destructive, recent wildfires in Southern California. Within fire perimeters occurring from 2000-2019, we matched property price data to burned and unburned structures. To be included in the final dataset, fire perimeters had to surround at least 25 burned and 25 unburned structures and have been sold at most seven years before the fire; five fires fit these criteria. We found evidence to support our hypothesis that lower-priced properties were more likely to be damaged, however, the likelihood of damage and the influence of property value significantly varied across individual fire perimeters. When considering fires individually, properties within two 2003 fires-the Cedar and Grand Prix-Old Fires-had statistically significantly decreasing burn damage with increasing property value. Occurring in 2007 and later, the other three fires (Witch-Poomacha, Thomas, and Woolsey) showed no significant relationship between price and damage. Consistent with other studies, topographic position, slope, elevation, and vegetation were also significantly associated with the likelihood of a structure being damaged during the wildfire. Driving time to the nearest fire station and previously identified fire hazard were also significant. Our results suggest that further studies on the extent and reason for disproportionate impacts of wildfire are needed. In the meantime, decision makers should consider allocating wildfire risk mitigation resources-such as fire-fighting and wildfire structural preparedness resources-to more socioeconomically vulnerable neighborhoods.
Due to the complexity of socio-economic-related issues, people thought of housing market as a chaotic nucleus situated at the intersection of neighboring sciences. It has been known that the ...dependence of house features on the residential property value can be estimated employing the well-established hedonic regression analysis method in teams of location characteristic, neighborhood characteristic and structure characteristic. However, to further assess the roles of urban infrastructures in housing markets, we proposed a new kind of volatility measure for house prices utilizing the Lie symmetry analysis of quantum theory based on Schrödinger equation, mainly focusing on the effects of transportation systems and public parks on residential property values. Based on the municipal open government data regularly collected for four cities, including Boston, Milwaukee, Taipei and Tokyo, and all spatial sampling sites were featured by United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Map, transportation and park were modelled as perturbations to the quantum states generated by the feature space in response to the environmental amenities with different spatial extents. In an attempt to ascertain the intrinsic impact of the location-dependent price information obtained, the similarity functions associated with the Schrödinger equation were considered to facilitate revealing the city amenities capitalizing into house prices. By examining the spatial spillover phenomena of house prices in the four cities investigated, it was found that the mass transit systems and the public green lands possessed the infinitesimal generators of Lie point symmetries Y.sub.2 and Y.sub.5, respectively. Compared statistically with the common performance criteria, including mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE) and, root mean squared error (RMSE) obtained by hedonic pricing model, the Lie symmetry analysis of the Schrödinger equation approach developed herein was successfully carried out. The invariant-theoretical characterizations of economics-related phenomena are consonant with the observed residential property values of the cities internationally, ultimately leading to develop a new perspective in the global financial architecture.
Ethnic discrimination on the housing market has been subject of research for years. While a field experimental approach is widespread, alternative attempts to objectively measure mechanisms of ...discrimination on the housing market are scarce. In line with labor market research, we stress that to reduce rental discrimination against ethnic minorities, we need understanding its underlying mechanisms. This is the first paper that introduces a vignette experiment to do so. We distinguish between four mechanisms put forward in the literature but hardly ever empirically tested: agent taste-based discrimination, owner taste-based discrimination, neighborhood taste-based discrimination and statistical discrimination, in a multifactorial vignette experiment among 576 pre graduate real estate student. In addition, our experimental design allows us to examine whether unequal treatment is heterogeneous by property owner and neighborhood characteristics.
Machine Learning (ML) excels at most predictive tasks but its complex nonparametric structure renders it less useful for inference and out‐of sample predictions. This article aims to elucidate and ...enhance the analytical capabilities of ML in real estate through Interpretable ML (IML). Specifically, we compare a hedonic ML approach to a set of model‐agnostic interpretation methods. Our results suggest that IML methods permit a peek into the black box of algorithmic decision making by showing the web of associative relationships between variables in greater resolution. In our empirical applications, we confirm that size and age are the most important rent drivers. Further analysis reveals that certain bundles of hedonic characteristics, such as large apartments in historic buildings with balconies located in affluent neighborhoods, attract higher rents than adding up the contributions of each hedonic characteristic. Building age is shown to exhibit a U‐shaped pattern in that both the youngest and oldest buildings attract the highest rents. Besides revealing valuable distance decay functions for spatial variables, IML methods are also able to visualise how the strength and interactions of hedonic characteristics change over time, which investors could use to determine the types of assets that perform best at any given stage of the real estate investment cycle.
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