Saving in the world Grigoli, Francesco; Herman, Alexander; Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus
World development,
04/2018, Volume:
104
Journal Article
Peer reviewed
•We construct the largest dataset available covering 165 countries over 1981–2012 for key saving aggregates.•We survey consumption theories to identify saving determinants and review the empirical ...literature using panel data.•Private saving is positively associated with income levels, current and future growth, and inflation.•Public saving (with partial Ricardian offsetting), credit, dependency ratios, and urbanization reduce private saving.•These results generally hold for other saving aggregates but they differ somewhat across time periods and country groups.
This paper presents new evidence on the behavior of saving in the world, by extending previous empirical research in several dimensions. After extensively surveying the relevant theoretical and empirical literature, the paper reports estimates of saving determinants relying on the newly constructed and largest available database covering 165 countries over 1981–2012. The empirical specification includes determinants not considered in the literature, explores differences in saving behavior nesting the 2008–10 crisis period and four different country groups, searches for commonalities across key saving aggregates (national, private, household, and corporate saving rates), and is subject to a robustness analysis based on different estimation techniques. The results confirm in part existing research, but also shed light on some ambiguous or contradictory findings and highlight the role of neglected determinants. Compared to the literature, we find a larger number of significant determinants, changes across periods and country groups, and similarities across different saving aggregates.
Many people fail to save what they will need for retirement. Research on excessive discounting of the future suggests that removing the lure of immediate rewards by precommitting to decisions or ...elaborating the value of future rewards both can make decisions more future oriented. The authors explore a third and complementary route, one that deals not with present and future rewards but with present and future selves. In line with research that shows that people may fail, because of a lack of belief or imagination, to identify with their future selves, the authors propose that allowing people to interact with age-progressed renderings of themselves will cause them to allocate more resources to the future. In four studies, participants interacted with realistic computer renderings of their future selves using immersive virtual reality hardware and interactive decision aids. In all cases, those who interacted with their virtual future selves exhibited an increased tendency to accept later monetary rewards over immediate ones.
Using the largest and richest data on savings in Great Britain, six waves of the Wealth and Assets Survey from the Office for National Statistics, we compare standard life cycle models of saving with ...models using more 'subjective' measures, and the added dimension of longitudinal data. Whilst the life cycle model provides a benchmark, regular criticisms remain, particularly people's propensity to continue saving at older ages. Data on attitudes attenuate that issue, and panel data largely eliminate it. Our results confirm empirically, for Great Britain, the importance of some of the objective determinants of savings included in life cycle theory. When we look at more subjective ones, we show that other factors, including self-rated health and financial pressure, provide an enhanced direct explanation of the propensity to save. Individuals who regard themselves as 'rainy day savers' tended to save more, irrespective of their demographic or financial circumstances. Results are robust to different specifications.
China's urban household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped. To understand these patterns, we analyze a panel of urban Chinese ...households over the period 1989–2009. We document a sharp increase in income uncertainty, largely due to an increase in the variance in household income attributed to transitory idiosyncratic shocks. We then calibrate a buffer-stock savings model to obtain quantitative estimates of the impact of rising household-specific income uncertainty as well as another shock to household income—the pension reforms that were instituted in the late 1990s. Our calibrations suggest that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms lead younger and older households, respectively, to raise their saving rates significantly. These two factors account for two-thirds of the increase in China's urban household saving rate and the U-shaped age-savings profile.
•We document a sharp increase in income uncertainty in urban China.•We calibrate a buffer-stock savings model.•Rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can explain large increase in savings.•Our calibrations suggest effects stronger for younger and older households.•Model can explain increase in savings and as well as changes in its age-profile.
The high and rising household savings rate in China is not easily reconciled with the traditional explanations that emphasize life cycle factors, the precautionary saving motive, financial ...development, or habit formation. This paper proposes a new competitive saving motive: as the sex ratio rises, Chinese parents with a son raise their savings in a competitive manner in order to improve their son’s relative attractiveness for marriage. The pressure on savings spills over to other households. Both cross-regional and household-level evidence supports this hypothesis. This factor can potentially account for about half the actual increase in the household savings rate during 1990–2007.
For most Americans, the savings and loan industry is defined by the fraud, ineptitude and failures of the 1980s. However, these events overshadow a long history in which thrifts played a key role in ...helping thousands of households buy homes. First appearing in the 1830s savings and loans, then known as building and loans, encourage their working-class members to adhere to the principles of thrift and mutual co-operation as a way to achieve the 'American Dream' of home ownership. This book traces the development of this industry from its origins as a movement of a loosely affiliated collection of institutions into a major element of America's financial markets. It also analyses how diverse groups of Americans, including women, ethnic Americans and African Americans, used thrifts to improve their lives and elevate their positions in society. Finally the overall historical perspective sheds new light on the events of the 1980s and analyses the efforts to rehabilitate the industry in the 1990s.
We study the effects of a credit crunch on consumer spending in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market model. After an unexpected permanent tightening in consumers’ borrowing capacity, constrained ...consumers are forced to repay their debt, and unconstrained consumers increase their precautionary savings. This depresses interest rates, especially in the short run, and generates an output drop, even with flexible prices. The output drop is larger with sticky prices, if the zero lower bound prevents the interest rate from adjusting downward. Adding durable goods to the model, households take larger debt positions and the output response can be larger.
Relying on comprehensive measures of financial knowledge, we provide evidence of a strong positive association between financial literacy and net worth, even after controlling for many determinants ...of wealth. We discuss two channels through which financial literacy might facilitate wealth accumulation. First, financial knowledge increases the likelihood of investing in the stock market, allowing individuals to benefit from the equity premium. Second, financial literacy is positively related to retirement planning and the development of a savings plan has been shown to boost wealth.
This article reviews the evidence on the importance of finance for economic well-being. It provides data on the use of basic financial services by households and firms across a sample of countries, ...assesses the desirability of universal access, and provides an overview of the macroeconomic, legal, and regulatory obstacles to access. Despite the benefits of finance, the data show that use of financial services is far from universal in many countries, especially developing countries. Universal access to financial services has not been a public policy objective in most countries and would likely be difficult to achieve. Countries can, however, facilitate access to financial services by strengthening institutional infrastructure, liberalizing markets and facilitating greater competition, and encouraging innovative use of know-how and technology. Government interventions to directly broaden access to finance, however, are costly and fraught with risks, among others the risk of missing the targeted groups. The article concludes with recommendations for global actions aimed at improving data on access and use and suggestions on areas of further analysis to identify constraints to broadening access.
We present an intertemporal consumption model of investment in financial literacy. Consumers benefit from such investment because financial literacy allows them to increase the returns on wealth. ...Since literacy depreciates over time and has a cost in terms of current consumption, the model delivers an optimal investment in literacy. Furthermore, literacy and wealth are determined jointly, and are positively correlated over the life-cycle. The model drives our empirical approach to the analysis of the effect of financial literacy on wealth and saving and indicates that the stock of financial literacy early in life is a valid instrument in the regression of wealth on financial literacy. Using microeconomic and aggregate data, we find strong support for the model’s predictions.
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