Climate change influences the ocean's physical and biogeochemical conditions, causing additional pressures on marine environments and ecosystems, now and in the future. Such changes occur in ...environments that already today suffer under pressures from, for example, eutrophication, pollution, shipping, and more. We demonstrate how to implement climate change into regional marine spatial planning by introducing data of future temperature, salinity, and sea ice cover from regional ocean climate model projections to an existing cumulative impact model. This makes it possible to assess climate change impact in relation to pre‐existing cumulative impact from current human activities. Results indicate that end‐of‐century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. These findings give marine planners and policymakers forewarning on how future climate change may impact marine ecosystems, across space, emission scenarios, and in relation to other pressures.
Our seas are under high pressures from human activities and climate change. The results from this study indicate that end‐of‐century projected climate change alone is a threat of the same magnitude as the combination of all current pressures to the marine environment. We developed methods to incorporate climate change into a cumulative impact model and to bridge some of the knowledge gaps on how sensitive different marine ecosystems are to climate change. These methods can be implemented in other regional seas. It will also facilitate for policymakers to undertake mitigation and adaptation measures and conduct marine spatial planning.
Increasing urbanization degrades quantity, quality, and the functionality of spatial cohesion of natural areas essential to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. The uncontrolled pace of ...building activity and the erosion of blue (i.e., aquatic) and green (i.e., terrestrial) landscape elements threaten existing habitat ranges and movability of wildlife. Local scale measures, such as nature-inspired engineered Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) are emerging mitigation solutions. Originally planned to promote sustainable stormwater management, adaptation to climate change and improved human livability in cities, such instruments offer interesting synergies for biodiversity in support of existing ecological infrastructure. BGI are especially appealing for globally declining amphibians, a rich and diverse vertebrate assemblage sensitive to urbanization. We integrated biological and highly resolved urban-rural land-cover data, ensemble models of habitat suitability, and connectivity models based on circuit theory to improve multi-scale and multi-species protection of core habitats and ecological corridors in the Swiss lowlands. Considering a broad spectrum of amphibian biodiversity, we identified distributions of amphibian biodiversity hotspots and four landscape elements essential to amphibian movability at the regional scale, namely i) forest edges, ii) wet-forest habitats, iii) soils with variable moisture and iv) riparian zones. Our work shows that cities can make a substantial contribution (e.g., up to 15% of urban space in the study area) to wider landscape habitat connectivity. We highlight the importance of planning BGI locally in strategic locations across urban and peri-urban areas to promote the permeability and availability of ‘stepping stone’ habitats in densely populated landscapes, essential to the maintenance of regional habitat connectivity and thereby enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.
•Blue-Green Infrastructures help mitigate landscape and habitat fragmentation.•Modelling to support multiscale and multispecies conservation in human landscapes.•Integrating habitat suitability and connectivity models for ten amphibian species.•Four landscape elements key for improving multispecies regional connectivity.•Identifiable local scale biodiversity enhancement through Blue-Green Infrastructure.
Information on where species occur is an important component of conservation and management decisions, but knowledge of distributions is often coarse or incomplete. Species distribution models ...provide a tool for mapping habitat and can produce credible, defensible, and repeatable information with which to inform decisions. However, these models are sensitive to data inputs and methodological choices, making it important to assess the reliability and utility of model predictions. We provide a rubric that model developers can use to communicate a model’s attributes and its appropriate uses. We emphasize the importance of tailoring model development and delivery to the species of interest and the intended use and the advantages of iterative modeling and validation. We highlight how species distribution models have been used to design surveys for new populations, inform spatial prioritization decisions for management actions, and support regulatory decision-making and compliance, tying these examples back to our model assessment rubric.
Underwater noise pollution from shipping is globally pervasive and has a range of adverse impacts on species which depend on sound, including marine mammals, sea turtles, fish, and many ...invertebrates. International bodies including United Nations agencies, the Arctic Council, and the European Union are beginning to address the issue at the policy level, but better evidence is needed to map levels of underwater noise pollution and the potential benefits of management measures such as ship-quieting regulations. Crucially, corroboration of noise maps with field measurements is presently lacking, which undermines confidence in their application to policymaking. We construct a computational model of underwater noise levels in the Northeast Atlantic using Automatic Identification System (AIS) ship-tracking data, wind speed data, and other environmental parameters, and validate this model against field measurements at 4 sites in the North Sea. Overall, model predictions of the median sound level were within ±3 dB for 93% of the field measurements for one-third octave frequency bands in the range 125 Hz–5 kHz. Areas with median noise levels exceeding 120 dB re 1 μPa and 20 dB above modelled natural background sound were predicted to occur in the Dover Strait, the Norwegian trench, near to several major ports, and around offshore infrastructure sites in the North Sea. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantitatively validate large-scale modelled noise maps with field measurements at multiple sites. Further validation will increase confidence in deeper waters and during winter months. Our results highlight areas where anthropogenic pressure from shipping noise is greatest and will inform the management of shipping noise in the Northeast Atlantic. The good agreement between measurements and model gives confidence that models of shipping noise can be used to inform future policy and management decisions to address shipping noise pollution.
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•Shipping noise is globally pervasive and impacts marine species which rely on sound.•To manage ship noise pollution effectively, ground-truthed noise maps are needed.•We present the first such validated maps of shipping noise at large scale.•Predictions were within ±3 dB for 93% of measurements in the range 125 Hz–5 kHz.•Our results give confidence that ship noise mapping can be used to guide management.
The impacts of climate change and the increasing occurrence of consequent extreme events in recent years have led to significant environmental, social and economic consequences in a fragile and ...highly vulnerable territory such as Venice. It is precisely in this perspective, which considers areas particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate, that the scientific research program Venezia2021, coordinated by CORILA - Consortium for coordination of research activities concerning the Venice lagoon system, is inserted. The research in question involves a complex process of identification and integration of innovative tools, data processing and analysis and assessment of impacts, in order to contribute to the maintenance of a proper balance of the lagoon ecosystem in a perspective of increased climate resilience. The overall objective of the research was to build a strategic, accurate and shared vision with respect to the challenges that await the preservation of the city and its lagoon, (a World Heritage Site), in consideration of climate change scenarios. Specifically, this paper analyzes the research experience of thematic axis No. 5 that led to the drafting of the Climate Change Adaptation Plan for the Venice Lagoon. The operational path that led to the construction of the plan was guided by an in-depth spatial study and development of an integrated system of analysis, assessment, planning, management and monitoring of the Venetian area capable of supporting the city and the activities that operate in it, through coordinated adaptation actions aimed at increasing sustainability and resilience as a whole.
Semeru, the most active volcano in Indonesia, erupted again in December 2021. This study aimed to map the impact of damages due to the eruption and map the incompatibility of land use with the ...Spatial Planning. The study was carried out through multitemporal spatial analysis to map the impact of the eruption damages, while the analysis of suitability and land use direction was carried out by overlaying land use maps with Spatial Planning maps. Sentinel-1B image data were analyzed using a maximum likelihood approach to obtain land use classification before and after the eruption. The results of the study showed that the eruption had an impact on the destruction of 1001.2 Ha of High-Density Forest, 624.9 Ha of Medium-Density Forest, 450.8 Ha of Rice Fields, 436.7 Ha of Agricultural Fields, 91 Ha of Settlements, and 3.1 Ha of Water bodies in Lumajang Regency. The results of the analysis show that in the affected area, there is a spatial plan direction of a residential area of 109.7 Ha. In addition to that, the high impact of the disaster is also due to the incompatibility of land use in the conservation area as a residential area of 515.4 Ha.
Application of sidescan sonar at the regional scale of the Abrolhos Bank, with ground-truthing by remotely operated vehicles and mixed-gas diving operations, revealed a much more complex habitat ...mosaic than previously recognized. The regional benthic habitat map indicates 8844km2 of reefs (earlier estimates from remote sensing were around 500km2) and 20,904km² of rhodolith habitat—the world's largest continuous bed. Integration of the regional megahabitat map with spatially explicit data on the distribution of marine protected areas (<0.2% of each benthic megahabitat area) and economic activities with the highest potential of environmental impact (fishing, mining, oil and gas exploitation and dredging) reveals the need of a regional scale spatial planning process engaging conflicting sectors.
•We present a benthic megahabitat map for the Abrolhos Shelf, with three megahabitats.•Benthic megahabitats include 8844km2 of reefs and the world's largest rhodolith bed with 20,904km².•Primary and secondary databases on the main economic activities and marine protected areas were integrated in the analyses.•Marine protected areas coverage is incipient and covers less than 0.5% of each megahabitat.•Elements for triggering spatial planning at the regional scale are presented and discussed.
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