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  • Uncertainty Estimates of So...
    Poduval, B.; Petrie, G.; Bertello, L.

    Solar physics, 10/2020, Volume: 295, Issue: 10
    Journal Article

    The solar wind prediction is based on the Wang and Sheeley ( Astrophys. J. 365 , 372, 1990 ) empirical relationship between the solar wind speed observed at 1 AU and the rate of magnetic flux tube expansion (FTE) between the photosphere and the inner corona, where the FTE is computed using coronal models (e.g. the current sheet source surface (CSSS) and the potential field source surface models). These models take the photospheric flux density synoptic maps as their inner boundary conditions to extrapolate the photospheric magnetic fields and to deduce the coronal and the heliospheric magnetic field configuration. These synoptic maps are among the most widely-used of all solar magnetic data products and therefore, the uncertainties in the model predictions that are caused by the uncertainties in the synoptic maps are worthy of study. However, an estimate of the uncertainties in the construction of these synoptic maps was not available until recently when Bertello et al. ( Solar Phys. 289 , 2419, 2014 ) obtained the spatial standard deviation synoptic maps. For each photospheric synoptic map, they obtained 98 Monte Carlo realizations of the spatial standard deviation maps. In this article, we present an estimate of uncertainties in the solar wind speed predicted at 1 AU by the CSSS model due to the uncertainties in the photospheric flux density synoptic maps. We also present a comparison of the coronal hole locations predicted by the models with the EUV synoptic maps obtained by the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation instruments on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory. For the present study, we used the Heliospheric and Magnetic Imager vector and longitudinal photospheric synoptic maps and the corresponding spatial standard deviation maps. In order to quantify the extent of the uncertainties involved, we compared the predicted speeds with the OMNI solar wind data during the same period (taking the solar wind transit time into account) and obtained the root mean square error between them. To illustrate the significance of the uncertainty estimate in the solar wind prediction, we carried out the analysis for three Carrington rotations at three different phases of the Solar Cycle 24, CR 2102 (3 – 30 October 2010), CR 2137 (14 May – 11 June 2013) and CR 2160 (1 – 28 February 2015), which fall within the extended minimum, the late-ascending, and the early-descending phases, respectively, of Solar Cycle 24.