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Stanley, K M; Say, D; Mühle, J; Harth, C M; Krummel, P B; Young, D; O'Doherty, S J; Salameh, P K; Simmonds, P G; Weiss, R F; Prinn, R G; Fraser, P J; Rigby, M
Nature communications, 01/2020, Volume: 11, Issue: 1Journal Article
Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHFFormula: see text), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClFFormula: see text). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 Formula: see text). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg Formula: see text-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.
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