Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical ...modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum‐Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance‐blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region‐specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.
Plain Language Summary
Modeling of circum‐Arctic ground thermal regime is critical to better predict the local climate change impacts on Arctic ecosystems and societies, thus supporting effective mitigation strategies. In this study we present a new approach to create ground temperature and active layer thickness (i.e. seasonally thawed ground layer on the top of permafrost) data layers over northern hemisphere at unprecedented fine spatial resolution (ca. 1km), that is unreachable with contemporary models. Our data indicate currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. However, this extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as our results suggest consistent, but region‐specific, alterations in ground thermal conditions due to climate change. Our results provide new opportunities to estimate future changes in Arctic ground thermal state, which has important implications on greenhouse gas fluxes and infrastructure hazards due to permafrost degradation.
Key Points
A correlative approach to model circum‐Arctic ground thermal conditions at unprecedented fine spatial scale is presented
Statistical forecasting accompanied with rigorous uncertainty estimates yields current permafrost extent of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2
Forecasts indicate severe and region‐specific near‐term changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change
Estimates of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from forests are based on the assumption that foliage has a steady emission potential over its lifetime, and that emissions are mainly modified ...by short-term variations in light and temperature. However, in many field studies this has been challenged, and high emissions and atmospheric concentrations have been measured during periods of low biological activity, such as in springtime. We conducted measurements during three years, using an online gas-exchange monitoring system to observe volatile organic emissions from a mature (1 year-old) and a growing Scots pine shoot. The emission rates of organic vapors from vegetative buds of Scots pine during the dehardening and rapid shoot growth stages were one to two orders of magnitude higher than those from mature foliage; this difference decreased and finally disappeared when the new shoot was maturing in late summer. On average, the springtime monoterpene emission rate of the bud was about 500 times higher than that of the mature needles; during the most intensive needle elongation period, the monoterpene emission rate of the growing needles was 3.5 higher than that of the mature needles, and in September the monoterpene emission rate of the same years' needles was even lower (50%) than that of the previous years' needles. For other measured compounds (methanol, acetone and methylbutenol) the values were of the same order of magnitude, except before bud break in spring, when the emission rates of buds for those compounds were on average about 20-30 times higher than that of mature needles. During spring and early summer the buds and growing shoots are a strong source of several VOCs, and if they are not accounted for in emission modeling a significant proportion of the emissions - from a few percent to even half of the annual cumulative emissions - will remain concealed. The diurnal emission pattern of growing shoots differed from the diurnal cycle in temperature as well as from the diurnal emission pattern of mature shoots, which may be related to processes involved in shoot or needle elongation. Our findings imply that global estimations of monoterpene emission rates from forests are in need of revision, and that the physiological state of the plants should be taken into account when emissions of the reactive gases such as monoterpenes are estimated.
Atmospheric chemistry in background areas is strongly influenced by natural vegetation. Coniferous forests are known to produce large quantities of volatile vapors, especially terpenes. These ...compounds are reactive in the atmosphere, and contribute to the formation and growth of atmospheric new particles. Our aim was to analyze the variability of mono- and sesquiterpene emissions between Scots pine trees, in order to clarify the potential errors caused by using emission data obtained from only a few trees in atmospheric chemistry models. We also aimed at testing if stand history and seed origin has an influence on the chemotypic diversity. The inherited, chemotypic variability in mono- and sesquiterpene emission was studied in a seemingly homogeneous 48 yr-old stand in Southern Finland, where two areas differing in their stand regeneration history could be distinguished. Sampling was conducted in August 2009. Terpene concentrations in the air had been measured at the same site for seven years prior to branch sampling for chemotypes. Two main compounds, α-pinene and Δ3-carene formed together 40–97% of the monoterpene proportions in both the branch emissions and in the air concentrations. The data showed a bimodal distribution in emission composition, in particular in Δ3-carene emission within the studied population. 10% of the trees emitted mainly α-pinene and no Δ3-carene at all, whereas 20% of the trees where characterized as high Δ3-carene emitters (Δ3-carene forming >80% of total emitted monoterpene spectrum). An intermediate group of trees emitted equal amounts of both α-pinene and Δ3-carene. The emission pattern of trees at the area established using seeding as the artificial regeneration method differed from the naturally regenerated or planted trees, being mainly high Δ3-carene emitters. Some differences were also seen in e.g. camphene and limonene emissions between chemotypes, but sesquiterpene emissions did not differ significantly between trees. The atmospheric concentrations at the site were found to reflect the species and/or chemodiversity rather than the emissions measured from any single tree, and were strongly dominated by α-pinene. We also tested the effect of chemodiversity on modeled monoterpene concentrations at the site and found out that since it significantly influences the distributions and hence the chemical reactions in the atmosphere, it should be taken into account in atmospheric modeling.
Soil moisture has a profound influence on life on Earth, and this vital water resource varies across space and time. Here, we explored soil moisture variations in boreal forest and tundra ...environments, where comprehensive soil moisture datasets are scarce. We installed soil moisture sensors up to 14 cm depth at 503 measurement sites within seven study areas across northern Europe. We recorded 6,138,528 measurements to capture soil moisture variations of the snowless season from April to September 2020. We described the spatio‐temporal patterns of soil moisture, and test how these patterns are linked to topography and how these links vary in space and time. We found large spatial variation and often less pronounced temporal variation in soil moisture across the measurement sites within all study areas. We found that throughout the measurement periods both univariate and multivariate models with topographic predictors showed great temporal variation in their performance and in the relative influence of the predictors within and across the areas. We found that the soil moisture‐topography relationships are site‐specific, as the topography‐based models often performed poorly when transferred from one area to another. There was no general solution that would work well in all the study areas when modeling soil moisture variation with topography. This should be carefully considered before applying topographic proxies for soil moisture. Overall, these data and results highlight the strong spatio‐temporal heterogeneity of soil moisture conditions in boreal forest and tundra environments.
Plain Language Summary
Water is fundamental for all life on Earth. Here, we investigated soil moisture of northern environments, which is an important component in the global carbon cycle. We found large spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture across the measurement sites within the seven study areas. We found that the predictive power of the statistical soil moisture models varied from site to site and week to week, which highlights the complexity of modeling soil moisture in boreal forest and tundra environments.
Key Points
Soil moisture was measured with 503 sensors in seven areas from April to September
We found more spatial than temporal variation within the seven areas
Soil moisture‐topography relationships were time‐ and site‐specific
Arctic marine environments are experiencing rapid changes due to the polar amplification of global warming. These changes impact the habitat of the cold-adapted microbial communities, which underpin ...biogeochemical cycles and marine food webs. We comparatively investigated the differences in prokaryotic and microeukaryotic taxa between summer surface water microbiomes sampled along a latitudinal transect from the ice-free southern Barents Sea and into the sea-ice-covered Nansen Basin to disentangle the dominating community (ecological) selection processes driving phylogenetic diversity. The community structure and richness of each site-specific microbiome were assessed in relation to the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the environment. A strong homogeneous deterministic selection process was inferred across the entire sampling transect
via
a phylogenetic null modeling approach. The microbial species richness and diversity were not negatively influenced by northward decreasing temperature and salinity. The results also suggest that regional phytoplankton blooms are a major prevalent factor in governing the bacterial community structure. This study supports the consideration that strong homogeneous selection is imposed across these cold-water marine environments uniformly, regardless of geographic assignments within either the Nansen Basin or the Barents Sea.
Long-term flux measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOC) over boreal forests are rare, although the forests are known to emit considerable amounts of VOCs into the atmosphere. Thus, we ...measured fluxes of several VOCs and oxygenated VOCs over a Scots-pine-dominated boreal forest semi-continuously between May 2010 and December 2013. The VOC profiles were obtained with a proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry, and the fluxes were calculated using vertical concentration profiles and the surface layer profile method connected to the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory. In total fluxes that differed significantly from zero on a monthly basis were observed for 13 out of 27 measured masses. Monoterpenes had the highest net emission in all seasons and statistically significant positive fluxes were detected from March until October. Other important compounds emitted were methanol, ethanol+formic acid, acetone and isoprene+methylbutenol. Oxygenated VOCs showed also deposition fluxes that were statistically different from zero. Isoprene+methylbutenol and monoterpene fluxes followed well the traditional isoprene algorithm and the hybrid algorithm, respectively. Emission potentials of monoterpenes were largest in late spring and autumn which was possibly driven by growth processes and decaying of soil litter, respectively. Conversely, largest emission potentials of isoprene+methylbutenol were found in July. Thus, we concluded that most of the emissions of m/z 69 at the site consisted of isoprene that originated from broadleaved trees. Methanol had deposition fluxes especially before sunrise. This can be connected to water films on surfaces. Based on this assumption, we were able to build an empirical algorithm for bi-directional methanol exchange that described both emission term and deposition term. Methanol emissions were highest in May and June and deposition level increased towards autumn, probably as a result of increasing relative humidity levels leading to predominance of deposition.
Time-of-flight elastic recoil detection (ToF-ERD) analysis software has been developed. The software combines a Python-language graphical front-end with a C code computing back-end in a user-friendly ...way. The software uses a list of coincident time-of-flight-energy (ToF-E) events as an input. The ToF calibration can be determined with a simple graphical procedure. The graphical interface allows the user to select different elements and isotopes from a ToF-E histogram and to convert the selections to individual elemental energy and depth profiles. The resulting sample composition can be presented as relative or absolute concentrations by integrating the depth profiles over user-defined ranges. Beam induced composition changes can be studied by displaying the event-based data in fractions relative to the substrate reference data. Optional angular input data allows for kinematic correction of the depth profiles. This open source software is distributed under the GPL license for Linux, Mac, and Windows environments.
Identifying the factors controlling stream water pollutants is challenged by the diversity of potential sources, pathways, and processes. This study tests the effects of watershed characteristics on ...stream water metal concentrations across environmental gradients. By using an extensive data set of 83 watersheds in southern Finland and structural equation modeling (SEM), the direct and indirect effects of land use and soil type on metal concentrations were explored. Both land use and soil type resulted in statistically significant direct effects on metals; for example, land use was found to control dissolved metal concentrations, whereas soil type had the strongest links for total metal concentrations. The consideration of indirect correlation further strengthened the effects of soil type up to 50%, thus suggesting the dominant role of soil across land use intensities. Moreover, the results indicate that modified landscapes mediate the effect of natural soil processes in controlling stream metal concentrations. This work highlights the benefits of structural equation model framework, as the underlying paths for water quality are more likely to be identified, compared to traditional regression methods. Thus, the implementation of SEM on water quality studies is highly encouraged.
Key Points
Direct and indirect effects of watershed characteristics on stream water quality were tested using structural equation model (SEM)
Soil type and land use were strongly linked to metal concentrations across studied streams
SEM revealed new insights into the complex network of water quality drivers and their underlying paths
Tree canopies are known to emit large amounts of VOCs (volatile organic compounds) such as monoterpenes into the surrounding air. High VOC emission rates from boreal forests have been observed during ...the transition from winter to summer activity. The most important sources of these are considered to be the green foliage, understory vegetation and soil organisms, but emissions from the living stand woody compartments have so far not been quantified. We analyzed whether the non-foliar components could partially explain the springtime high emission rates. We measured the monoterpene emissions from Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stem and shoots during the dehardening phase of trees in field conditions in two consecutive springs. We observed a large, transient monoterpene burst from the stem, while the shoot monoterpene emissions remained low. The burst lasted about 12 h. Simultaneously, an unusual nighttime sap flow and a non-systematic diurnal pattern of tree diameter were detected. Hence, we suggest that the monoterpene burst was a consequence of the recovery of the stem from wintertime, and likely related to the refilling of embolized tracheids and/or phenological changes in the living cells of the stem. This indicates that the dominant processes and environmental drivers triggering the monoterpene emissions are different between the stem and the foliage.
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