In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), integrating HIV testing into antenatal care (ANC) has been crucial toward reducing mother-to-child transmission of HIV. With the introduction of new testing modalities, ...we explored temporal trends in HIV testing within and outside of ANC and identified sociodemographic determinants of testing during ANC.
We analyzed data from 139 nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2005 and 2021, including more than 2.2 million women aged 15-49 years in 41 SSA countries. We extracted data on women's recent HIV testing history (<24 months), by modality (ie, at ANC versus outside of ANC) and sociodemographic variables (ie, age, socioeconomic status, education level, number of births, urban/rural). We used Bayesian generalized linear mixed models to estimate HIV testing coverage and the proportion of those that tested as part of ANC.
HIV testing coverage (<24 months) increased substantially between 2005 and 2021 from 8% to 38%, with significant variations between countries and subregions. Two percent of women received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey interview as part of ANC in 2005 and 11% in 2021. Among women who received an HIV test in the 24 months preceding the survey, the probability of testing at ANC was significantly greater for multiparous, adolescent girls, rural women, women in the poorest wealth quintile, and women in West and Central Africa.
ANC testing remains an important component to achieving high levels of HIV testing coverage and benefits otherwise underserved women, which could prove instrumental to progress toward universal knowledge of HIV status in SSA.
Introduction
Our study describes changes in HIV care service delivery and continuity of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) for people living with HIV (PLHIV) during the 8 weeks before and after ...diagnosis of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Haiti on March 19, 2020.
Methods
Using data from 96 out of 167 health facilities offering ART services, we compared four ART program indicators: (1) count of HIV visits; (2) proportion of ART dispenses in community-based settings (DAC); (3) proportion of multi-month dispensing of ART medications > 6 months (> 6 m MMD); and (4) proportion of timely ART refills. We used uncontrolled interrupted time series (ITS) models to estimate slope and level changes in each indicator with the arrival of COVID-19.
Results and Discussion
From week 1 to week 16, the average number of HIV visits fell from 121.5 to 92.5 visits, the proportion of DAC rose from 22.7% to 36.7%, the proportion of > 6 m MMD rose from 29.4% to 48.4%, and the proportion of timely ART refills fell from 51.9% to 43.8%. The ITS models estimated abrupt increases of 36% in > 6 m MMD (p < 0.001) and 37% in DAC (p < 0.001) at the time of COVID-19 arrival, and no change after arrival of COVID-19. The was an abrupt decline of 18% in timely ART refills with the arrival of COVID-19 and a decline of 1% per week thereafter, both non-statistically significant changes.
Conclusions
The sudden changes in HIV service utilization represent dramatic adaptations needed to mitigate primary and secondary effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on PLHIV. This study underscores the urgency of optimizing ART delivery models in Haiti and beyond, in order to maintain progress toward HIV epidemic control.
Monitoring subnational healthcare quality is important for identifying and addressing geographic inequities. Yet, health facility surveys are rarely powered to support the generation of estimates at ...more local levels. With this study, we propose an analytical approach for estimating both temporal and subnational patterns of healthcare quality indicators from health facility survey data. This method uses random effects to account for differences between survey instruments; space-time processes to leverage correlations in space and time; and covariates to incorporate auxiliary information. We applied this method for three countries in which at least four health facility surveys had been conducted since 1999 - Kenya, Senegal, and Tanzania - and estimated measures of sick-child care quality per WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) guidelines at programmatic subnational level, between 1999 and 2020. Model performance metrics indicated good out-of-sample predictive validity, illustrating the potential utility of geospatial statistical models for health facility data. This method offers a way to jointly estimate indicators of healthcare quality over space and time, which could then provide insights to decision-makers and health service program managers.
Universal health coverage promises equity in access to and quality of health services. However, there is variability in the quality of the care (QoC) delivered at health facilities in low and ...middle-income countries (LMICs). Detecting gaps in implementation of clinical guidelines is key to prioritizing the efforts to improve quality of care. The aim of this study was to present statistical methods that maximize the use of existing electronic medical records (EMR) to monitor compliance with evidence-based care guidelines in LMICs.
We used iSanté, Haiti's largest EMR to assess adherence to treatment guidelines and retention on treatment of HIV patients across Haitian HIV care facilities. We selected three processes of care - (1) implementation of a 'test and start' approach to antiretroviral therapy (ART), (2) implementation of HIV viral load testing, and (3) uptake of multi-month scripting for ART, and three continuity of care indicators - (4) timely ART pick-up, (5) 6-month ART retention of pregnant women and (6) 6-month ART retention of non-pregnant adults. We estimated these six indicators using a model-based approach to account for their volatility and measurement error. We added a case-mix adjustment for continuity of care indicators to account for the effect of factors other than medical care (biological, socio-economic). We combined the six indicators in a composite measure of appropriate care based on adherence to treatment guidelines.
We analyzed data from 65,472 patients seen in 89 health facilities between June 2016 and March 2018. Adoption of treatment guidelines differed greatly between facilities; several facilities displayed 100% compliance failure, suggesting implementation issues. Risk-adjusted continuity of care indicators showed less variability, although several facilities had patient retention rates that deviated significantly from the national average. Based on the composite measure, we identified two facilities with consistently poor performance and two star performers.
Our work demonstrates the potential of EMRs to detect gaps in appropriate care processes, and thereby to guide quality improvement efforts. Closing quality gaps will be pivotal in achieving equitable access to quality care in LMICs.
Immunization of pregnant women against tetanus is a key strategy for reducing tetanus morbidity and mortality while also achieving the goal of maternal and neonatal tetanus elimination. Despite ...substantial progress in improving newborn protection from tetanus at birth through maternal immunization, umbilical cord practices and sterilized and safe deliveries, inequitable gaps in protection remain. Notably, an infant's tetanus protection at birth is comprised of immunization received by the mother during and before the pregnancy (e.g., through childhood vaccination, booster doses, mass vaccination campaigns, or during prior pregnancies). In this work, we examine wealth-related inequalities in maternal tetanus toxoid containing vaccination coverage before pregnancy, during pregnancy, and at birth for 72 low- and middle-income countries with a recent Demographic and Health Survey or Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (between 2013 and 2022). We summarize coverage levels and absolute and relative inequalities at each time point; compare the relative contributions of inequalities before and during pregnancy to inequalities at birth; and examine associations between inequalities and coverage levels. We present the findings for countries individually and on aggregate, by World Bank country income grouping, as well as by maternal and neonatal tetanus elimination status, finding that most of the inequality in tetanus immunization coverage at birth is introduced during pregnancy. Inequalities in coverage during pregnancy are most pronounced in low- and lower-middle-income countries, and even more so in countries which have not achieved maternal and neonatal tetanus elimination. These findings suggest that pregnancy is a key time of opportunity for equity-oriented interventions to improve maternal tetanus immunization coverage.
Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during ...the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021.
All-cause mortality reports were collected for 74 countries and territories and 266 subnational locations (including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries) that had reported either weekly or monthly deaths from all causes during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and for up to 11 year previously. In addition, we obtained excess mortality data for 12 states in India. Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality, after excluding data from periods affected by late registration and anomalies such as heat waves, minus expected mortality. Six models were used to estimate expected mortality; final estimates of expected mortality were based on an ensemble of these models. Ensemble weights were based on root mean squared errors derived from an out-of-sample predictive validity test. As mortality records are incomplete worldwide, we built a statistical model that predicted the excess mortality rate for locations and periods where all-cause mortality data were not available. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression as a variable selection mechanism and selected 15 covariates, including both covariates pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as seroprevalence, and to background population health metrics, such as the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, with direction of effects on excess mortality concordant with a meta-analysis by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. With the selected best model, we ran a prediction process using 100 draws for each covariate and 100 draws of estimated coefficients and residuals, estimated from the regressions run at the draw level using draw-level input data on both excess mortality and covariates. Mean values and 95% uncertainty intervals were then generated at national, regional, and global levels. Out-of-sample predictive validity testing was done on the basis of our final model specification.
Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120·3 deaths (113·1–129·3) per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4·07 million 3·71–4·36), the USA (1·13 million 1·08–1·18), Russia (1·07 million 1·06–1·08), Mexico (798 000 741 000–867 000), Brazil (792 000 730 000–847 000), Indonesia (736 000 594 000–955 000), and Pakistan (664 000 498 000–847 000). Among these countries, the excess mortality rate was highest in Russia (374·6 deaths 369·7–378·4 per 100 000) and Mexico (325·1 301·6–353·3 per 100 000), and was similar in Brazil (186·9 172·2–199·8 per 100 000) and the USA (179·3 170·7–187·5 per 100 000).
The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. Strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics. In addition, further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, and J and E Nordstrom
Abstract
This article proposes an analysis of the social space inhabited by the CEOs and Chairmen of the top 100 Indian companies in 2012, using a Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA). The analysis ...aims to understand the internal divisions to be found in the field of economic power, by looking at the divisions along the lines of educational capital, inherited capital (family capital), caste and social capital (drawing on a network analysis of interlocking directorates). Our results point to a very peculiar structuration of the economic field; we find that credentialism has a very weak influence, there is a clear and massive cleavage between owners and managers of capital, social capital carries decisive weight and the actors closest to the state apparatus occupy a marginal role. We argue that it is possible to identify three poles among business leaders: the multipositional family business owners, the unipositional family business owners and the managerial galaxy.
Recommended treatments of patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (aBTC) are limited to one chemotherapy doublet. Nevertheless, efficacy of treatment personalisation for aBTCs is supported by ...accumulating evidences but remains to be evaluated.
Patients with aBTCs included in the prospective clinical trial MOSCATO-01 were treated by at least one previous systemic treatment, had an ECOG performance status of 0–1, and at least one tumour site accessible to biopsy. Multiple high-throughput molecular analysis was performed on biopsies to drive the administration of molecular targeted agents (MTAs).
From November 2011 to March 2016, 43 patients (4%) of the 1035 adult patients included in MOSCATO-01 had aBTCs with a majority of intrahepatic localisation (67%). Successful biopsy procedures and DNA extractions led to molecular portraits for 34 patients (79%). Orientation to an appropriate early clinical trial or accessible MTA(s) was possible for 23 of these patients (68%), and 18 (53%) have received matched MTA(s). Among them, the overall response rate was 33% and the disease control rate was 88%. A PFS ≥6 months was observed in 37% and the PFS ratio was >1.3 for 50% of the patients. These patients had a lower risk for death as compared to the 20 patients not orientated to a matched MTA (HR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11–0.76; p = 0.008).
Within the MOSCATO-01 trial, patients with aBTCs had the highest rate of orientation to matched MTAs and derived a clear clinical benefit. A broader evaluation of these findings may improve future treatments strategies for aBTCs.
Trial Registration: NCT01566019.
•Real-time molecular screening of aBTCs allowed matching the treatment in 53% of patients.•Coherent signs of clinical benefit were derived from this strategy.•Further developments of personalised treatments are expected in this hard-to-treat disease.
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