The most rapid loss of ice from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is observed where ice streams flow into the ocean and begin to float, forming the great Antarctic ice shelves that surround much of the ...continent. Because these ice shelves are floating, their thinning does not greatly influence sea level. However, they also buttress the ice streams draining the ice sheet, and so ice shelf changes do significantly influence sea level by altering the discharge of grounded ice. Currently, the most significant loss of mass from the ice shelves is from melting at the base (although iceberg calving is a close second). Accessing the ocean beneath ice shelves is extremely difficult, so numerical models are invaluable for understanding the processes governing basal melting. This paper describes the different ways in which ice shelf/ocean interactions are modeled and discusses emerging directions that will enhance understanding of how the ice shelves are melting now and how this might change in the future.
We present the result of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project, MISMIP+.
MISMIP+ is intended to be a benchmark for ice-flow models which include
fast sliding marine ice streams and ...floating ice shelves and in particular
a treatment of viscous stress that is sufficient to model buttressing,
where upstream ice flow is restrained by a downstream ice shelf. A set of idealized
experiments first tests that models are able to maintain
a steady state with the grounding line located on a retrograde slope due to buttressing and
then explore scenarios where a reduction in that buttressing
causes ice stream acceleration, thinning, and grounding line retreat.
The majority of participating models passed the first test and then produced similar responses to the loss of buttressing. We find that the most important distinction between models in this particular type of simulation is in the treatment of sliding at the bed,
with other distinctions – notably the difference between the simpler
and more complete treatments of englacial stress but also the differences between numerical methods – taking a secondary role.
Coupled ice sheet–ocean models capable of simulating moving grounding lines are just becoming available. Such models have a broad range of potential applications in studying the dynamics of marine ...ice sheets and tidewater glaciers, from process studies to future projections of ice mass loss and sea level rise. The Marine Ice Sheet–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP) is a community effort aimed at designing and coordinating a series of model intercomparison projects (MIPs) for model evaluation in idealized setups, model verification based on observations, and future projections for key regions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Here we describe computational experiments constituting three interrelated MIPs for marine ice sheet models and regional ocean circulation models incorporating ice shelf cavities. These consist of ice sheet experiments under the Marine Ice Sheet MIP third phase (MISMIP+), ocean experiments under the Ice Shelf-Ocean MIP second phase (ISOMIP+) and coupled ice sheet–ocean experiments under the MISOMIP first phase (MISOMIP1). All three MIPs use a shared domain with idealized bedrock topography and forcing, allowing the coupled simulations (MISOMIP1) to be compared directly to the individual component simulations (MISMIP+ and ISOMIP+). The experiments, which have qualitative similarities to Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf and the adjacent region of the Amundsen Sea, are designed to explore the effects of changes in ocean conditions, specifically the temperature at depth, on basal melting and ice dynamics. In future work, differences between model results will form the basis for the evaluation of the participating models.
The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a new coupled Earth system model sponsored by the U.S Department of Energy. Here we present E3SM global simulations using active ocean and sea ice ...that are driven by the Coordinated Ocean‐ice Reference Experiments II (CORE‐II) interannual atmospheric forcing data set. The E3SM ocean and sea ice components are MPAS‐Ocean and MPAS‐Seaice, which use the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) framework and run on unstructured horizontal meshes. For this study, grid cells vary from 30 to 60 km for the low‐resolution mesh and 6 to 18 km at high resolution. The vertical grid is a structured z‐star coordinate and uses 60 and 80 layers for low and high resolution, respectively. The lower‐resolution simulation was run for five CORE cycles (310 years) with little drift in sea surface temperature (SST) or heat content. The meridional heat transport (MHT) is within observational range, while the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N is low compared to observations. The largest temperature biases occur in the Labrador Sea and western boundary currents (WBCs), and the mixed layer is deeper than observations at northern high latitudes in the winter months. In the Antarctic, maximum mixed layer depths (MLD) compare well with observations, but the spatial MLD pattern is shifted relative to observations. Sea ice extent, volume, and concentration agree well with observations. At high resolution, the sea surface height compares well with satellite observations in mean and variability.
Key Points
The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) is a new climate model by the U.S. Department of Energy
E3SM ocean and ice components use unstructured horizontal meshes for variable‐resolution simulations
The 310‐year E3SM simulations agree well with observations in ocean currents and sea ice coverage
The Southern Ocean overturning circulation is driven by winds, heat fluxes, and freshwater sources. Among these sources of freshwater, Antarctic sea ice formation and melting play the dominant role. ...Even though iceshelf melt is relatively small in magnitude, it is located close to regions of convection, where it may influence dense water formation. Here, we explore the impacts of ice-shelf melting on Southern Ocean water-mass transformation (WMT) using simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) both with and without the explicit representation of melt fluxes from beneath Antarctic ice shelves. We find that iceshelf melting enhances transformation of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water, converting it to lower density values. While the overall differences in Southern Ocean WMT between the two simulations are moderate, freshwater fluxes produced by ice-shelf melting have a further, indirect impact on the Southern Ocean overturning circulation through their interaction with sea ice formation and melting, which also cause considerable upwelling. We further find that surface freshening and cooling by ice-shelf melting cause increased Antarctic sea ice production and stronger density stratification near the Antarctic coast. In addition, ice-shelf melting causes decreasing air temperature, which may be directly related to sea ice expansion. The increased stratification reduces vertical heat transport from the deeper ocean. Although the addition of ice-shelf melting processes leads to no significant changes in Southern Ocean WMT, the simulations and analysis conducted here point to a relationship between increased Antarctic ice-shelf melting and the increased role of sea ice in Southern Ocean overturning.
This work documents version two of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 is a significant evolution from its predecessor E3SMv1, resulting in a model that is ...nearly twice as fast and with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics. We describe the physical climate model in its lower horizontal resolution configuration consisting of 110 km atmosphere, 165 km land, 0.5° river routing model, and an ocean and sea ice with mesh spacing varying between 60 km in the mid‐latitudes and 30 km at the equator and poles. The model performance is evaluated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Characterization of Klima simulations augmented with historical simulations as well as simulations to evaluate impacts of different forcing agents. The simulated climate has many realistic features of the climate system, with notable improvements in clouds and precipitation compared to E3SMv1. E3SMv1 suffered from an excessively high equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. In E3SMv2, ECS is reduced to 4.0 K which is now within the plausible range based on a recent World Climate Research Program assessment. However, a number of important biases remain including a weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deficiencies in the characteristics and spectral distribution of tropical atmospheric variability, and a significant underestimation of the observed warming in the second half of the historical period. An analysis of single‐forcing simulations indicates that correcting the historical temperature bias would require a substantial reduction in the magnitude of the aerosol‐related forcing.
Plain Language Summary
The U.S. Department of Energy recently released version two of its Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). E3SMv2 experienced a significant evolution in many of its model components (most notably the atmosphere and sea ice models), and its supporting software infrastructure. In this work, we document the computational performance of E3SMv2 and analyze its ability to reproduce the observed climate. To accomplish this, we utilize the standard Diagnosis and Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments augmented with historical simulations for the period 1850–2015. We find that E3SMv2 is nearly twice as fast as its predecessor and more accurately reproduces the observed climate in a number of metrics, most notably clouds and precipitation. We also find that the model's simulated response to increasing carbon dioxide (the equilibrium climate sensitivity) is much more realistic. Unfortunately, E3SMv2 underestimates the global mean surface temperature compared to observations during the second half of historical period. Using sensitivity experiments, where forcing agents (carbon dioxide, aerosols) are selectively disabled in the model, we determine that correcting this problem would require a strong reduction in the impact of aerosols.
Key Points
E3SMv2 is nearly twice as fast as E3SMv1 with a simulated climate that is improved in many metrics (e.g., precipitation and clouds)
Climate sensitivity is substantially lower with a more plausible equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K (compared to an unlikely value of 5.3 K in E3SMv1)
E3SMv2 underestimates the warming in the late historical period due to excessive aerosol‐related forcing
The processes responsible for freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), ice‐shelf basal melting and iceberg calving, are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). ...Here we document the cryosphere configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1.2. This includes simulating Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melting, which has been implemented through simulating the ocean circulation within static Antarctic ice‐shelf cavities, allowing for the ability to calculate ice‐shelf basal melt rates from the associated heat and freshwater fluxes. In addition, we added the capability to prescribe forcing from iceberg melt, allowing for realistic representation of the other dominant mass loss process from the AIS. In standard resolution simulations (using a noneddying ocean) under preindustrial climate forcing, we find high sensitivity of modeled ocean/ice shelf interactions to the ocean state, which can result in a transition to a high basal melt regime under the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), presenting a significant challenge to representing the ocean/ice shelf system in a coupled ESM. We show that inclusion of a spatially dependent parameterization of eddy‐induced transport reduces biases in water mass properties on the Antarctic continental shelf. With these improvements, E3SM produces realistic ice‐shelf basal melt rates across the continent that are generally within the range inferred from observations. The accurate representation of ice‐shelf basal melting within a coupled ESM is an important step toward reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea‐level rise.
Plain Language Summary
The future of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has the potential to have broad impacts on global climate, perhaps most notably in contributing to sea‐level rise. The current generation of Earth System Models (ESMs) do not accurately represent the two primary means in which ice is lost from the AIS, through melting at the base of ice shelves floating on the ocean and the calving of icebergs. This limits our ability to make climate projections that incorporate the impacts of the AIS in a changing climate. Here, we demonstrate a novel capability to model one of those processes, ice‐shelf basal melting, in an ESM. We demonstrate the ability to simulate ice‐shelf basal melt rates across many Antarctic ice shelves that are in line with present day observations. We also find that, for certain ice shelves, modeled ice‐shelf basal melting can experience a rapid transition to high melting far above present‐day estimates, and this simulated high melting can be mitigated through improved ocean physics.
Key Points
Capabilities have been added to an Earth System Model to model realistic Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melt fluxes and prescribe iceberg forcing
Simulated basal melt rates have a strong sensitivity to the ocean mesoscale eddy parameterization
For one choice of the mesoscale eddy parameterization, the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf transitions to a high melt regime
Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the ...treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ∼2 km, as opposed to ∼0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ∼2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ∼1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.
Some ocean modeling studies have identified a potential tipping point from a low to a high basal melt regime beneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), Antarctica, with significant implications for ...subsequent Antarctic ice sheet mass loss. To date, investigation of the climate drivers and impacts of this possible event have been limited because ice-shelf cavities and ice-shelf melting are only now starting to be included in global climate models. Using a global ocean–sea-ice configuration of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) that represents both ocean circulations and melting within ice-shelf cavities, we explore freshwater triggers (iceberg melt and ice-shelf basal melt) of a transition to a high-melt regime at FRIS in a low-resolution (30 km in the Southern Ocean) global ocean–sea-ice model. We find that a realistic spatial distribution of iceberg melt fluxes is necessary to prevent the FRIS melt regime change from unrealistically occurring under historical-reanalysis-based atmospheric forcing. Further, improvement of the default parameterization for mesoscale eddy mixing significantly reduces a large regional fresh bias and weak Antarctic Slope Front structure, both of which precondition the model to melt regime change. Using two different stable model configurations, we explore the sensitivity of FRIS melt regime change to regional ice-sheet freshwater fluxes. Through a series of sensitivity experiments prescribing incrementally increasing melt rates from the smaller, neighboring ice shelves in the eastern Weddell Sea, we demonstrate the potential for an ice-shelf melt “domino effect” should the upstream ice shelves experience increased melt rates. The experiments also reveal that modest ice-shelf melt biases in a model, especially at coarse ocean resolution where narrow continental shelf dynamics are not well resolved, can lead to an unrealistic melt regime change at downstream ice shelves. Thus, we find that remote connections between melt fluxes at different ice shelves are sensitive to baseline model conditions. Our results highlight both the potential and the peril of simulating prognostic Antarctic ice-shelf melt rates in a low-resolution global model.
We show that between 1996 and 2006, the area circumscribed by the high-speed collar of the Great Red Spot (GRS) shrunk by 15%, while the peak velocities within its collar remained constant. This ...shrinkage indicates a dynamical change in the GRS because the region circumscribed by the collar is nearly coincident with the location of the potential vorticity anomaly of the GRS. It was previously observed that the area of the clouds associated with the GRS has been shrinking. However, the cloud cover of the GRS is not coincident with the location of its potential vorticity anomaly or any other of its known dynamical features. We show that the peak velocities of the Oval BA were nearly the same in 2000, when the Oval was white, and in 2006, when it was red, as were all of the other features of the two velocities fields. To measure temporal changes in the GRS and Oval, we extracted velocities from images taken with Galileo, Cassini, and the Hubble Space Telescope using a new iterative method called Advection Corrected Correlation Image Velocimetry (ACCIV). ACCIV finds correlations over image pairs with 10-h time separations when other automated velocity-extraction methods are limited to time separations of 2
h or less. Typically, ACCIV velocities produced from images separated by 10
h had errors that are 3–6 times smaller than similar velocities extracted from images separated by 2
h or less. ACCIV produces velocity fields containing hundreds of thousands of
independent correlation vectors (tie-points). Dense velocity fields are needed to locate the loci of peak velocities and other features.
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