Background. Oseltamivir resistance in A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza is rare, particularly in untreated community cases. Sustained community transmission has not previously been reported. Methods. Influenza ...specimens from the Asia—Pacific region were collected through sentinel surveillance, hospital, and general practitioner networks. Clinical and epidemiological information was collected on patients infected with oseltamivir-resistant viruses. Results. Twenty-nine (15%) of 191 A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses collected between May and September 2011 from Hunter New England (HNE), Australia, contained the H275Y neuraminidase substitution responsible for oseltamivir resistance. Only 1 patient had received oseltamivir before specimen collection. The resistant strains were genetically very closely related, suggesting the spread of a single variant. Ninety percent of cases lived within 50 kilometers. Three genetically similar oseltamivir-resistant variants were detected outside of HNE, including 1 strain from Perth, approximately 4000 kilometers away. Computational analysis predicted that neuraminidase substitutions V241I, N369K, and N386S in these viruses may offset the destabilizing effect of the H275Y substitution. Conclusions. This cluster represents the first widespread community transmission of H275Y oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza. These cases and data on potential permissive mutations suggest that currently circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses retain viral fitness in the presence of the H275Y mutation and that widespread emergence of oseltamivir-resistant strains may now be more likely.
Since 2003, highly pathogenic A(H5N1) influenza viruses have been the cause of large-scale death in poultry and the subsequent infection and death of over 140 humans. A group of 55 influenza A(H5N1) ...viruses isolated from various regions of South East Asia between 2004 and 2006 were tested for their susceptibility to the anti-influenza drugs the neuraminidase inhibitors and adamantanes. The majority of strains were found to be fully sensitive to the neuraminidase inhibitors oseltamivir carboxylate, zanamivir and peramivir; however two strains demonstrated increased IC
50 values. Sequence analysis of these strains revealed mutations in the normally highly conserved residues 116 and 117 of the N1 neuraminidase. Sequence analysis of the M2 gene showed that all of the A(H5N1) viruses from Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia contained mutations (L26I and S31N) associated with resistance to the adamantane drugs (rimantadine and amantadine), while strains from Indonesia were found to be a mix of both adamantane resistant (S31N) and sensitive viruses. None of the A(H5N1) viruses from Myanmar contained mutations known to confer adamantane resistance. These results support the use of neuraminidase inhibitors as the most appropriate class of antiviral drug to prevent or treat human A(H5N1) virus infections.
Influenza B viruses make up an important part of the burden from seasonal influenza globally. The 2015 season in Australia saw an unusual predominance of influenza B with a distinctive switch during ...the season from B/Yamagata/16/88 lineage viruses to B/Victoria/2/87 lineage viruses. We also noted significant differences in the age groups infected by the different B lineages, with B/Victoria infecting a younger population than B/Yamagata, that could not be explained by potential prior exposure.
Pandemic H1N1 influenza virus is of global health concern and is currently the predominant influenza virus subtype circulating in the southern hemisphere 2010 winter. The virus has changed little ...since it emerged in 2009, however, in this report we describe several genetically distinct changes in the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. These variants were first detected in Singapore in early 2010 and have subsequently spread through Australia and New Zealand. At this stage, these signature changes in the haemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins have not resulted in significant antigenic changes which might make the current vaccine less effective, but such adaptive mutations should be carefully monitored as the northern hemisphere approaches its winter influenza season.
In recent years, controversy has arisen regarding the risks and benefits of certain types of gain-of-function (GOF) studies involving avian influenza viruses. In this article, we provide specific ...examples of how different types of data, including information garnered from GOF studies, have helped to shape the influenza vaccine production process-from selection of candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) to the manufacture and stockpiling of safe, high-yield prepandemic vaccines for the global community. The article is not written to support a specific pro- or anti-GOF stance but rather to inform the scientific community about factors involved in vaccine virus selection and the preparation of prepandemic influenza vaccines and the impact that some GOF information has had on this process.
Background
Early cancer recurrence after oesophagectomy is a common problem, with an incidence of 20–30 per cent despite the widespread use of neoadjuvant treatment. Quantification of this risk is ...difficult and existing models perform poorly. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for early recurrence after surgery for oesophageal adenocarcinoma using a large multinational cohort and machine learning approaches.
Methods
Consecutive patients who underwent oesophagectomy for adenocarcinoma and had neoadjuvant treatment in one Dutch and six UK oesophagogastric units were analysed. Using clinical characteristics and postoperative histopathology, models were generated using elastic net regression (ELR) and the machine learning methods random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). Finally, a combined (ensemble) model of these was generated. The relative importance of factors to outcome was calculated as a percentage contribution to the model.
Results
A total of 812 patients were included. The recurrence rate at less than 1 year was 29·1 per cent. All of the models demonstrated good discrimination. Internally validated areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUCs) were similar, with the ensemble model performing best (AUC 0·791 for ELR, 0·801 for RF, 0·804 for XGB, 0·805 for ensemble). Performance was similar when internal–external validation was used (validation across sites, AUC 0·804 for ensemble). In the final model, the most important variables were number of positive lymph nodes (25·7 per cent) and lymphovascular invasion (16·9 per cent).
Conclusion
The model derived using machine learning approaches and an international data set provided excellent performance in quantifying the risk of early recurrence after surgery, and will be useful in prognostication for clinicians and patients.
Antecedentes
la recidiva precoz del cáncer tras esofaguectomía es un problema frecuente con una incidencia del 20‐30% a pesar del uso generalizado del tratamiento neoadyuvante. La cuantificación de este riesgo es difícil y los modelos actuales funcionan mal. Este estudio se propuso desarrollar un modelo predictivo para la recidiva precoz después de la cirugía para el adenocarcinoma de esófago utilizando una gran cohorte multinacional y enfoques con aprendizaje automático.
Métodos
Se analizaron pacientes consecutivos sometidos a esofaguectomía por adenocarcinoma y que recibieron tratamiento neoadyuvante en 6 unidades de cirugía esofagogástrica del Reino Unido y 1 de los Países Bajos. Con la utilización de características clínicas y la histopatología postoperatoria se generaron modelos mediante regresión de red elástica (elastic net regression, ELR) y métodos de aprendizaje automático Random Forest (RF) y XG boost (XGB). Finalmente, se generó un modelo combinado (Ensemble) de dichos métodos. La importancia relativa de los factores respecto al resultado se calculó como porcentaje de contribución al modelo.
Resultados
En total se incluyeron 812 pacientes. La tasa de recidiva a menos de 1 año fue del 29,1%. Todos los modelos demostraron una buena discriminación. Las áreas bajo la curva ROC (AUC) validadas internamente fueron similares, con el modelo Ensemble funcionando mejor (ELR = 0,791, RF = 0,801, XGB = 0,804, Ensemble = 0,805). El rendimiento fue similar cuando se utilizaba validación interna‐externa (validación entre centros, Ensemble AUC = 0,804). En el modelo final, las variables más importantes fueron el número de ganglios linfáticos positivos (25,7%) y la invasión linfovascular (16,9%).
Conclusión
El modelo derivado con la utilización de aproximaciones con aprendizaje automático y un conjunto de datos internacional proporcionó un rendimiento excelente para cuantificar el riesgo de recidiva precoz tras la cirugía y será útil para clínicos y pacientes a la hora de establecer un pronóstico.
Early recurrence after surgery for adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus is common. A risk prediction model was derived using modern machine learning methods that accurately predicts risk of early recurrence using postoperative pathology.
Machine learning may help
Abstract The utility of a universal DNA ‘barcode’ fragment (658 base pairs of the Cytochrome C Oxidase I COI gene) has been established as a useful tool for species identification, and widely ...criticized as one for understanding the evolutionary history of a group. Large amounts of COI sequence data have been produced that hold promise for rapid species identification, for example, for biosecurity. The fruit fly tribe Dacini holds about a thousand species, of which 80 are pests of economic concern. We generated a COI reference library for 265 species of Dacini containing 5601 sequences that span most of the COI gene using circular consensus sequencing. We compared distance metrics versus monophyly assessments for species identification and although we found a ‘soft’ barcode gap around 2% pairwise distance, the exceptions to this rule dictate that a monophyly assessment is the only reliable method for species identification. We found that all fragments regularly used for Dacini fruit fly identification >450 base pairs long provide similar resolution. 11.3% of the species in our dataset were non‐monophyletic in a COI tree, which is mostly due to species complexes. We conclude with recommendations for the future generation and use of COI libraries. We revise the generic assignment of Dacus transversus stat. rev. Hardy 1982, and Dacus perpusillus stat. rev. Drew 1971 and we establish Dacus maculipterus White 1998 syn. nov. as a junior synonym of Dacus satanas Liang et al. 1993.
The prevention and control of disease caused by seasonal and potential pandemic influenza viruses is currently managed by the use influenza vaccines and antivirals. The adamantanes (amantadine and ...rimantadine) were the first antivirals licensed for use against influenza A viruses and have been used extensively in some countries. Since the early 2000s increased resistance to these drugs has been reported especially in the A(H3) viruses. In this study we analysed recent human influenza A strains isolated in Australia and regionally for evidence of resistance to adamantanes and found evidence of significant resistant emerging during 2005.
The production of charged pions in minimum bias p+C interactions is studied using a sample of 377000 inelastic events obtained with the NA49 detector at the CERN SPS at 158 GeV/c beam momentum. The ...data cover a phase space area ranging from 0 to 1.8 GeV/c in transverse momentum and from -0.1 to 0.5 in Feynman xF. Inclusive invariant cross sections are given on a grid of 270 bins per charge, thus offering for the first time a dense coverage of the projectile hemisphere and of the cross-over region into the target fragmentation zone.
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