At Necker-Enfants malades hospital, the presence of the parents alongside the child during the immediate postoperative period has been allowed and encouraged for a number of years. In order to ...standardise the practices in terms of allowing parents to enter post-anaesthetic recovery rooms, nurses have drawn up a procedure to follow. In parallel, a study and a satisfaction survey have been carried out in order to measure the benefits of this approach for parents and for the child undergoing the operation.
•Evaluation of parameter uncertainty in ecosystem models is primordial.•An operational toolbox composed of three complementary analyses is proposed.•The toolbox is applied on the Bay of Biscay ...Ecopath food web model.•Model evaluation may lead to parameter revisions or model uses’ restrictions.
Ecosystem models are always simplifications of reality and as such their application for ecosystem-based management requires standard validation. Here, the “DataReli” toolbox is proposed to evaluate the quality of the data used during the construction of ecosystem models, their coherence across trophic levels, and whether data limitations prevent the model long-term applications. This toolbox is the combination of three operational and complementary analyses: (i) the pedigree index to determine to what extent a model was calibrated on data of local origin; (ii) the graphical analysis known as PREBAL to assess whether a model respects some basic ecological and fisheries principles; and (iii) a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of model predictions to small variations in input data. The toolbox is delivered to potential users with main generic recommendations on how interpreting results conjointly and on which decisions to make about parameters’ revisions or model uses’ restrictions. (i) Corrections of parameters should be preferentially envisaged when modelling data-rich environments. (ii) For those models with an overall pedigree index above 0.4, a closer look at the pedigree routine, i.e. values by parameters and compartments, and the PREBAL analysis would help to prioritize parameters needing improvement. (ii)’ For Ecopath models of no overall acceptable quality (overall pedigree index <0.4), we recommend stopping the DataReli procedure at this point. (iii) In terms of sensitivity analysis, marked responses of model predictions to small variations in the input values must preferentially lead to restrictions in the model applications compared to corrections of parameter estimates. A concrete application of the “DataReli” toolbox to the pre-existing Ecopath model of the Bay of Biscay continental shelf food web is presented. For the present case study, the general level of input data reliability is considered as satisfying with regard to the model applications.
Abstract
Coastal ecosystems are subjected to an increasing number of anthropogenic drivers, including marine renewable energies and climate change (CC). These drivers can interact in complex ways, ...which may lead to cumulative effects (CEs) whose potential consequences on the ecosystems need to be addressed. We used a holistic approach—ecological network analysis (ENA)—coupled with a two-dimensional food web model—Ecospace—to conduct an ecosystem study of the CEs of CC plus the operation of an offshore wind farm on ecosystem functioning in the extended Bay of Seine (English Channel). Mapped ENA indices showed that CEs were not restricted to the wind farm area, i.e. where anthropogenic drivers are concomitant. CEs varied both in space and among ecosystem properties, displaying that ENA indices can distinguish between different cumulative pathways that modify ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. Moreover, the effects seemed to be tied to the structuring role of CC, and differed under the 2050 and 2100 conditions. Such changes resulted in stronger loss of ecosystem resilience under the 2100 conditions despite the benefits of the reef and reserve effects of the wind farm.
Abstract
Integrative and spatialized tools for studying the effects of a wide variety of ecosystem drivers are needed to implement ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning. We developed ...a tool for analyzing the direct and indirect effects of anthropic activities on the structure and functioning of coastal and marine ecosystems. Using innovative modelling techniques, we ran a spatially explicit model to carry out an ecological network analysis (ENA) of the effects of climate change (CC), of an offshore wind farm (OWF) and of multiple fishing scenarios on the Bay of Seine (eastern part of the English Channel) ecosystem. ENA indices described the effects of those different drivers in a holistic and spatial way. The spatial analysis of ecosystem properties revealed local and global patterns of modifications attributed to CC, while the OWF resulted in localized changes in the ecosystem. This ability of ENA indicators to detect human-induced changes in ecosystem functioning at various spatial scales allows for a more integrative view of the effects of human activities on ecosystems. ENA indices could be used to link both local and global ecosystem changes, for a more cross-scale approach to ecosystem management.
Climate change is already known to cause irreversible impacts on ecosystems that are difficult to accurately predict due to the multiple scales at which it will interact. Predictions at the community ...level are mainly focused on the future distribution of marine species biomass using ecological niche modelling, which requires extensive efforts concerning the effects that trophic interactions could have on the realized species dynamics. In this study, a set of species distribution models predictions were used to force the spatially‐explicit trophic model Ecospace in order to evaluate the potentials impacts that two 2,100 climate scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, could have on a highly exploited ecosystem, the Bay of Seine (France). Simulations demonstrated that both scenarios would influence the community of the Bay of Seine ecosystem: as expected, more intense changes were predicted with the extreme scenario RCP8.5 than with the RCP2.6 scenario. Under both scenarios, a majority of species underwent a decrease of biomass, although some increased. However, in both cases the stability of the majority of species dynamics was lowered, the sustainability of the fishery. Differences between niche modelling predictions and those obtained through the forcing in Ecospace highlighted the paramount importance of considering trophic interactions in climate change simulations. These results illustrate the requirement of multiplying novel approaches for efficiently forecasting potential impacts of climate change.
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•Food web models are ideal tools for Ecosystem services (ES) assessment.•The coastal part of the Seine Bay appears to play a key role for ES supply.•In the Seine Bay, climate change ...seems to have a negative effect on fished species, thus reducing food production.•Locally, the offshore wind farm reef and reserve effects appear to dampen the negative effect of climate change, and even seem to increase ES supply.•Anthropogenic drivers’ interactions should be considered when estimating changes in ecosystem services supply.
Coastal ecosystems provide a wide range of valuable ecosystem services (ES) for human wellbeing. Such services depend on the functioning and structure of ecosystems. Unfortunately, these ecosystems are threatened by humans, directly impairing their ability to provide these services. In order to predict such changes, we used a food web model to forecast potential spatial changes in ES supply in the Seine Bay (English Channel), due to climate change effects (CC) and the setup of an offshore wind farm (OWF). Three ES were studied, food production from fishing, top predator production for cultural purposes and the potential resistance of the ecosystem inferred from its organization. The ability of the Seine Bay ecosystem to produce food appears to be negatively impacted by the effect of climate change. Because of the important economic role of fishing in Normandy, such changes could percolate on the entire social and economic system of the bay. The Courseulles-sur-Mer offshore wind farm appears to increase the supply of services and limit the impact of climate change at the local spatial scale, which could give stakeholders insights into mitigating the effects of climate change. Such ecosystem approach enables for a more integrative view of ES supply, through the characterization of the entire system functioning.
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