Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications ...of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (
p
< 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
Phenological responses of vegetation to climate, in particular to the ongoing warming trend, have received much attention. However, divergent results from the analyses of remote sensing data have ...been obtained for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the world’s largest high-elevation region. This study provides a perspective on vegetation phenology shifts during 1960–2014, gained using an innovative approach based on a well-validated, process-based, tree-ring growth model that is independent of temporal changes in technical properties and image quality of remote sensing products. Twenty composite site chronologies were analyzed, comprising about 3,000 trees from forested areas across the TP. We found that the start of the growing season (SOS) has advanced, on average, by 0.28 d/y over the period 1960–2014. The end of the growing season (EOS) has been delayed, by an estimated 0.33 d/y during 1982–2014. No significant changes in SOS or EOS were observed during 1960–1981. April–June and August–September minimum temperatures are the main climatic drivers for SOS and EOS, respectively. An increase of 1 °C in April–June minimum temperature shifted the dates of xylem phenology by 6 to 7 d, lengthening the period of tree-ring formation. This study extends the chronology of TP phenology farther back in time and reconciles the disparate views on SOS derived from remote sensing data. Scaling up this analysis may improve understanding of climate change effects and related phenological and plant productivity on a global scale.
Significance
The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and ...interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered waves of human migration and societal transformation in northern China, which contributed to the alteration of spatial pattern of ancient civilizations.
Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium–BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.
Xylem hydraulic adjustment to global climatic changes was reported from temperate, boreal, and Mediterranean tree species. Yet, the long-term hydraulic adjustment in tropical tree species has not ...been studied so far. Here we developed the first standard chronologies of three hydraulic trait variables for three South Asian moist forest tree species to analyze their long-term hydraulic responses to changing climate. Based on wood anatomical measurements, we calculated Hagen-Poiseuille hydraulically weighted vessel diameter (D
), potential specific hydraulic conductivity (K
), and vulnerability index (V
) and developed standard chronologies of these variables for
, and
which are different in their xylem structure, wood density, shade tolerance, growth rates, and habitat preferences. Bootstrap correlation analysis revealed that vapor pressure deficit (VPD) strongly positively influenced the xylem water transport capacity in
, whereas
was affected by both temperature and precipitation. The hydraulic conductivity of
was mainly affected by temperature. Different adjustment strategies were observed among the species, probably due to the differences in life history strategies and xylem properties. No positive relationship of conductivity and radial growth was found, but a trade-off between hydraulic safety and efficiency was observed in all studied species.
KEY MESSAGE : Spring temperature is a major limiting factor at the beginning of the growing season, the timing of growth initiation can increase by about 7 days/°C. During the growing season, impacts ...of climate variables on radial growth are similar along an altitudinal gradient. Altitude is considered as an important factor affecting tree growth in mountain forest ecosystems. In this paper, the results of a 2-year field study along an altitudinal gradient in the cold and arid central Qilian Mountains, northwestern China, are reported. Twelve Qilian juniper trees (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) were monitored with high-resolution dendrometers at three altitudes ranging from 2,865 to 3,550 m. At each altitude, a local weather station was installed close to the studied trees. We identified correlations between intra-annual growth patterns derived from the Gompertz equation with local air temperature and precipitation data. The timing of growth initiation became earlier and the growing season duration increased with decreasing altitude. The onset of radial growth occurred between early May and early June, and the growing season terminated between mid-July and late August, resulting in a growing season duration that decreased from 107 to 41 days as elevation increased. June is the most important growth period at each altitude. Spring temperature, which is strongly associated with elevation, is a critical factor determining the initiation of radial growth. The timing of growth initiation was delayed by 3–4 days per 100 m elevation. When associated with the modeled altitudinal spring temperature lapse rate of −0.48 °C/100 m, the onset of the growing season increased by about 7 days/°C. However, during the growing season, daily stem radial increments showed a positive correlation with precipitation and a negative correlation with daily maximum air temperature at all altitudes. Our study provides new data revealing the basic growth processes of Qilian juniper trees and provides significant information to quantify the responses of tree growth to future global warming.
To provide a long-term context for understanding the “Karakoram Anomaly” in recent glacier studies, we originally aimed to develop an annually resolved multi-century winter–spring precipitation ...record using tree-ring earlywood cellulose δ
18
O (δ
18
O
EW
) of
Pinus wallachina
from the Karakoram, northern Pakistan. Out of expectation, winter (January–May) temperature rather than precipitation is found to be the dominant climate signal (
r
= 0.63,
p
< 0.01, 1955–2013) stored in the δ
18
O
EW
chronology. Precipitation signals mainly appear at high-frequency variations, but weaker than temperature signal. We reconstructed January–May temperature back to 1631 with an explained variance of 39.7 % during the calibration period of 1955–2013. The reconstruction reveals that the Little Ice Age (LIA) was 0.94 °C warmer during 1647–1746 than the twentieth century (1900–1999). These warmer conditions are additionally validated by ice-core δ
18
O data from the Kunlun Mountains of High Asia and the northern North America. The eastward Polar Vortex and enhanced mid-latitude Westerlies on the Euro-Asia continent may be a possible explanation of a spatial coherency of LIA temperature between the Karakoram and the northern North America. Although not the original aim of this study, we provide evidence that the attribution of anomalous behavior of Karakoram glaciers in a long-term context may be misled when using precipitation reconstructions derived from tree-ring oxygen isotope.
To understand inter-annual to decadal summer monsoon precipitation variations in Myanmar, we developed new tree-ring chronologies of
Tectona grandis
(teak) from three sampling sites in north-central ...Myanmar where the climatic proxy is sparse. A regional chronology (spanning 1700–2016) derived from three site chronologies showed a strongly positive precipitation sensitivity during the summer monsoon (
R
= 0.71), indicating that slow tree growth was detected in years of deficient precipitation. We reconstructed monsoon precipitation (May–October) for the period 1770–2016, with robust calibration-verification statistics. Our reconstruction revealed 22 (16) extremely dry (wet) years over the past 247 years. Several dry and wet episodes recorded in our reconstruction are consistent with other precipitation proxies from tropical Asia, such as the East Indian drought in 1790–1796 and the Victorian Holocaust drought in 1888–1890. The 2.0–4.0-year high-frequency periodicities revealed from spectral peaks and dominant regions of high spatial correlations indicated the summer precipitation in Myanmar is linked with broader-scale ocean-atmospheric circulations, mainly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activities due to sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Coherent relationships of our reconstructed series with ENSO-related climate indices further support the dynamics of monsoon precipitation variability in Myanmar is inter-linked with global climate systems. Our reconstruction inferred from teak tree rings may be useful to provide valuable insight into the impacts of extreme weather events associated with monsoon hydroclimate in Myanmar.
Recent warming in High Asia might have a strong impact on Asian summer monsoon variability with consequences for the hydrological cycle. Based on correlations between climate data, the tree‐ring δ18O ...of high‐elevation junipers is an indicator of August precipitation. Thus, our 800‐year long annually resolved oxygen isotope series reflects long‐term variations in summer monsoon activity on the southern Tibetan plateau. Summer precipitation was reduced during 13th–15th centuries and since the 19th century, whereas the Little Ice Age period (15th–19th century) was rather moist. The late 20th century was among the driest periods during the past 800 years, showing a tendency to slightly wetter conditions after AD 1990.
Global circulation models predict an increase of summer monsoon precipitation in High Asia as a consequence of global warming. The shortness of available meteorological records requires the ...reconstruction of past climate variability. However, high‐resolution climate proxy records from the Tibetan plateau are scarce and of limited spatial representativeness. Here we present first evidence of increased summer monsoon intensity from the Tibetan plateau based on reconstructions of late summer (August and September) temperature and rainfall from a network of 22 maximum latewood density (MLD) chronologies of high‐elevation conifer sites. After 1980, a decrease in MLD points to an increase of Indian summer monsoon activity in southern Tibet unprecedented during the past 350 years.
Analyses of stable isotopes (C, O, H) in tree rings are increasingly important cross-disciplinary programs. The rapid development in this field documented in an increasing number of publications ...requires a comprehensive review. This study includes a bibliometric analysis-based review to better understand research trends in tree ring stable isotope research. Overall, 1475 publications were selected from the Web of Science Core Collection for 1974–2023. The findings are that: (1) numbers of annual publications and citations increased since 1974. From 1974 to 1980, there were around two relevant publications per year. However, from 2020 to 2022, this rose sharply to 109 publications per year. Likewise, average article citations were less than four per year before 1990, but were around four per article per year after 2000; (2) the major subjects using tree ring stable isotopes include forestry, geosciences, and environmental sciences, contributing to 42.5% of the total during 1974–2023; (3) the top three most productive institutions are the Chinese Academy of Sciences (423), the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (227), and the University of Arizona (204). These achievements result from strong collaborations; (4) review papers, for example, (Dawson et al., Annu Rev Ecol Syst 33:507–559, 2002) and (McCarroll and Loader, Quat Sci Rev 23:771–801, 2004), are among the most cited, with more than 1000 citations; (5) tree ring stable isotope studies mainly focus on climatology and ecology, with atmospheric CO
2
one of the most popular topics. Since 2010, precipitation and drought have received increasing attention. Based on this analysis, the research stages, key findings, debated issues, limitations and directions for future research are summarized. This study serves as an important attempt to understand the progress on the use of stable isotopes in tree rings, providing scientific guidance for young researchers in this field.
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