Summary Background The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been ...undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. Methods We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UK's rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. Findings For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2–4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30–34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7–4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20–54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimer's disease (increase of 137%, 16–277), cirrhosis (65%, −15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71–942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% 95 UI 17·2–26·3 of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% 25·5–35·7). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% 10·5–13·3 of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % 7·5–10·5), and high body-mass index (8·6% 7·4–9·8). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8–15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. Interpretation The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Summary Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a growing cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and accurate estimates of the prevalence of this disease are needed to ...anticipate the future burden of COPD, target key risk factors, and plan for providing COPD-related health services. We aimed to measure the prevalence of COPD and its risk factors and investigate variation across countries by age, sex, and smoking status. Methods Participants from 12 sites (n=9425) completed postbronchodilator spirometry testing plus questionnaires about respiratory symptoms, health status, and exposure to COPD risk factors. COPD prevalence estimates based on the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease staging criteria were adjusted for the target population. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for COPD associated with 10-year age increments and 10-pack-year (defined as the number of cigarettes smoked per day divided by 20 and multiplied by the number of years that the participant smoked) increments. Meta-analyses provided pooled estimates for these risk factors. Findings The prevalence of stage II or higher COPD was 10·1% (SE 4·8) overall, 11·8% (7·9) for men, and 8·5% (5·8) for women. The ORs for 10-year age increments were much the same across sites and for women and men. The overall pooled estimate was 1·94 (95% CI 1·80–2·10) per 10-year increment. Site-specific pack-year ORs varied significantly in women (pooled OR=1·28, 95% CI 1·15–1·42, p=0·012), but not in men (1·16, 1·12–1·21, p=0·743). Interpretation This worldwide study showed higher levels and more advanced staging of spirometrically confirmed COPD than have typically been reported. However, although age and smoking are strong contributors to COPD, they do not fully explain variations in disease prevalence—other factors also seem to be important. Although smoking cessation is becoming an increasingly urgent objective for an ageing worldwide population, a better understanding of other factors that contribute to COPD is crucial to assist local public-health officials in developing the best possible primary and secondary prevention policies for their regions.
Demographic and epidemiological transitions are changing the age structure of the population and the most common diseases. Non-communicable respiratory diseases are an increasing problem at both ends ...of the age range in low-income and middle-income countries. In children, who represent a large proportion of the total population, the increasing problem of asthma is a strain on health services. Improved survival of the older population is increasing the proportion of morbidity and mortality attributable to chronic lung diseases. Health services in low-resource countries are poorly adapted to treating chronic diseases. Designed to respond episodically to acute disease, almost all historical investment has focused on infectious diseases. Crucial to the successful management of chronic diseases is an infrastructure designed to support pro-active management, providing not only an accurate diagnosis, but also a secure supply of cost effective drugs at an affordable price. The absence of such an infrastructure in many countries and the market failure that makes drugs generally more expensive in low-resource regions means that many people with chronic non-communicable lung diseases are not given effective treatment. This has damaging economic consequences. The common causes of poor lung health in low-income countries are not the same as those in richer countries, and there is a need to study why they are so common and how best to manage them.
Summary Background Measurement of the global burden of disease with disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) requires disability weights that quantify health losses for all non-fatal consequences of ...disease and injury. There has been extensive debate about a range of conceptual and methodological issues concerning the definition and measurement of these weights. Our primary objective was a comprehensive re-estimation of disability weights for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 through a large-scale empirical investigation in which judgments about health losses associated with many causes of disease and injury were elicited from the general public in diverse communities through a new, standardised approach. Methods We surveyed respondents in two ways: household surveys of adults aged 18 years or older (face-to-face interviews in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania; telephone interviews in the USA) between Oct 28, 2009, and June 23, 2010; and an open-access web-based survey between July 26, 2010, and May 16, 2011. The surveys used paired comparison questions, in which respondents considered two hypothetical individuals with different, randomly selected health states and indicated which person they regarded as healthier. The web survey added questions about population health equivalence, which compared the overall health benefits of different life-saving or disease-prevention programmes. We analysed paired comparison responses with probit regression analysis on all 220 unique states in the study. We used results from the population health equivalence responses to anchor the results from the paired comparisons on the disability weight scale from 0 (implying no loss of health) to 1 (implying a health loss equivalent to death). Additionally, we compared new disability weights with those used in WHO's most recent update of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 2004. Findings 13 902 individuals participated in household surveys and 16 328 in the web survey. Analysis of paired comparison responses indicated a high degree of consistency across surveys: correlations between individual survey results and results from analysis of the pooled dataset were 0·9 or higher in all surveys except in Bangladesh ( r =0·75). Most of the 220 disability weights were located on the mild end of the severity scale, with 58 (26%) having weights below 0·05. Five (11%) states had weights below 0·01, such as mild anaemia, mild hearing or vision loss, and secondary infertility. The health states with the highest disability weights were acute schizophrenia (0·76) and severe multiple sclerosis (0·71). We identified a broad pattern of agreement between the old and new weights ( r =0·70), particularly in the moderate-to-severe range. However, in the mild range below 0·2, many states had significantly lower weights in our study than previously. Interpretation This study represents the most extensive empirical effort as yet to measure disability weights. By contrast with the popular hypothesis that disability assessments vary widely across samples with different cultural environments, we have reported strong evidence of highly consistent results. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
