Epidemiological and clinical evidence indicates that humans infected with the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses often displayed severe lung ...pathology. High viral load and extensive infiltration of macrophages are the hallmarks of highly pathogenic (HP) influenza viral infections. However, it remains unclear what biological mechanisms primarily determine the observed difference in the kinetics of viral load and macrophages between HP and low pathogenic (LP) viral infections, and how the mechanistic differences are associated with viral pathogenicity. In this study, we develop a mathematical model of viral dynamics that includes the dynamics of different macrophage populations and interferon. We fit the model to in vivo kinetic data of viral load and macrophage level from BALB/c mice infected with an HP or LP strain of H1N1/H5N1 virus to estimate model parameters using Bayesian inference. Our primary finding is that HP viruses have a higher viral infection rate, a lower interferon production rate and a lower macrophage recruitment rate compared to LP viruses, which are strongly associated with more severe tissue damage (quantified by a higher percentage of epithelial cell loss). We also quantify the relative contribution of macrophages to viral clearance and find that macrophages do not play a dominant role in the direct clearance of free viruses although their role in mediating immune responses such as interferon production is crucial. Our work provides new insight into the mechanisms that convey the observed difference in viral and macrophage kinetics between HP and LP infections and establishes an improved model-fitting framework to enhance the analysis of new data on viral pathogenicity.
Calcium puffs are local transient Ca2+ releases from internal Ca2+ stores such as the endoplasmic reticulum or the sarcoplasmic reticulum. Such release occurs through a cluster of inositol ...1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP3Rs). Based on the IP3R model (which is determined by fitting to stationary single-channel data) and nonstationary single-channel data, we construct a new IP3R model that includes time-dependent rates of mode switches. A point-source model of Ca2+ puffs is then constructed based on the new IP3R model and is solved by a hybrid Gillespie method with adaptive timing. Model results show that a relatively slow recovery of an IP3R from Ca2+ inhibition is necessary to reproduce most of the experimental outcomes, especially the nonexponential interpuff interval distributions. The number of receptors in a cluster could be severely underestimated when the recovery is sufficiently slow. Furthermore, we find that, as the number of IP3Rs increases, the average duration of puffs initially increases but then becomes saturated, whereas the average decay time keeps increasing linearly. This gives rise to the observed asymmetric puff shape.
Renewed efforts to eliminate malaria have highlighted the potential to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission - a process mediated by gametocyte kinetics in human hosts. Here we study the in vivo ...dynamics of
gametocytes by establishing a framework which incorporates improved measurements of parasitemia, a novel gametocyte dynamics model and model fitting using Bayesian hierarchical inference. We found that the model provides an excellent fit to the clinical data from 17 volunteers infected with
(3D7 strain) and reliably predicts observed gametocytemia. We estimated the sexual commitment rate and gametocyte sequestration time to be 0.54% (95% credible interval: 0.30-1.00%) per asexual replication cycle and 8.39 (6.54-10.59) days respectively. We used the data-calibrated model to investigate human-to-mosquito transmissibility, providing a method to link within-human host infection kinetics to epidemiological-scale infection and transmission patterns.
Severe influenza A virus (IAV) infection is associated with immune dysfunction. Here, we show circulating CD8
T-cell profiles from patients hospitalized with avian H7N9, seasonal IAV, and influenza ...vaccinees. Patient survival reflects an early, transient prevalence of highly activated CD38
HLA-DR
PD-1
CD8
T cells, whereas the prolonged persistence of this set is found in ultimately fatal cases. Single-cell T cell receptor (TCR)-αβ analyses of activated CD38
HLA-DR
CD8
T cells show similar TCRαβ diversity but differential clonal expansion kinetics in surviving and fatal H7N9 patients. Delayed clonal expansion associated with an early dichotomy at a transcriptome level (as detected by single-cell RNAseq) is found in CD38
HLA-DR
CD8
T cells from patients who succumbed to the disease, suggesting a divergent differentiation pathway of CD38
HLA-DR
CD8
T cells from the outset during fatal disease. Our study proposes that effective expansion of cross-reactive influenza-specific TCRαβ clonotypes with appropriate transcriptome signatures is needed for early protection against severe influenza disease.
Models of within-host influenza viral dynamics have contributed to an improved understanding of viral dynamics and antiviral effects over the past decade. Existing models can be classified into two ...broad types based on the mechanism of viral control: models utilising target cell depletion to limit the progress of infection and models which rely on timely activation of innate and adaptive immune responses to control the infection. In this paper, we compare how two exemplar models based on these different mechanisms behave and investigate how the mechanistic difference affects the assessment and prediction of antiviral treatment. We find that the assumed mechanism for viral control strongly influences the predicted outcomes of treatment. Furthermore, we observe that for the target cell-limited model the assumed drug efficacy strongly influences the predicted treatment outcomes. The area under the viral load curve is identified as the most reliable predictor of drug efficacy, and is robust to model selection. Moreover, with support from previous clinical studies, we suggest that the target cell-limited model is more suitable for modelling in vitro assays or infection in some immunocompromised/immunosuppressed patients while the immune response model is preferred for predicting the infection/antiviral effect in immunocompetent animals/patients.
The first line treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria is artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), which consists of an artemisinin derivative coadministered with a longer-acting partner ...drug. However, the spread of
resistant to both artemisinin and its partner drugs poses a major global threat to malaria control activities. Novel strategies are needed to retard and reverse the spread of these resistant parasites. One such strategy is triple artemisinin-based combination therapy (TACT). We developed a mechanistic within-host mathematical model to investigate the efficacy of a TACT (dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine-mefloquine DHA-PPQ-MQ) for use in South-East Asia, where DHA and PPQ resistance are now increasingly prevalent. Comprehensive model simulations were used to explore the degree to which the underlying resistance influences the parasitological outcomes. The effect of MQ dosing on the efficacy of TACT was quantified at various degrees of DHA and PPQ resistance. To incorporate interactions between drugs, a novel model is presented for the combined effect of DHA-PPQ-MQ, which illustrates how the interactions can influence treatment efficacy. When combined with a standard regimen of DHA and PPQ, the administration of three 6.7-mg/kg doses of MQ was sufficient to achieve parasitological efficacy greater than that currently recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. As a result, three 8.3-mg/kg doses of MQ, the current WHO-recommended dosing regimen for MQ, combined with DHA-PPQ, has the potential to produce high cure rates in regions where resistance to DHA-PPQ has emerged.
MUC1 belongs to the family of cell surface (cs-) mucins. Experimental evidence indicates that its presence reduces in vivo influenza viral infection severity. However, the mechanisms by which MUC1 ...influences viral dynamics and the host immune response are not yet well understood, limiting our ability to predict the efficacy of potential treatments that target MUC1. To address this limitation, we use available in vivo kinetic data for both virus and macrophage populations in wildtype and MUC1 knockout mice. We apply two mathematical models of within-host influenza dynamics to this data. The models differ in how they categorise the mechanisms of viral control. Both models provide evidence that MUC1 reduces the susceptibility of epithelial cells to influenza virus and regulates macrophage recruitment. Furthermore, we predict and compare some key infection-related quantities between the two mice groups. We find that MUC1 significantly reduces the basic reproduction number of viral replication as well as the number of cumulative macrophages but has little impact on the cumulative viral load. Our analyses suggest that the viral replication rate in the early stages of infection influences the kinetics of the host immune response, with consequences for infection outcomes, such as severity. We also show that MUC1 plays a strong anti-inflammatory role in the regulation of the host immune response. This study improves our understanding of the dynamic role of MUC1 against influenza infection and may support the development of novel antiviral treatments and immunomodulators that target MUC1.
Background. Epidemiological studies suggest that, following infection with influenza virus, there is a short period during which a host experiences a lower susceptibility to infection with other ...influenza viruses. This viral interference appears to be independent of any antigenic similarities between the viruses. We used the ferret model of human influenza to systematically investigate viral interference. Methods. Ferrets were first infected then challenged 1-14 days later with pairs of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), and influenza viruses circulating in 2009 and 2010. Results. Viral interference was observed when the interval between initiation of primary infection and subsequent challenge was <1 week. This effect was virus specific and occurred between antigenically related and unrelated viruses. Coinfections occurred when 1 or 3 days separated infections. Ongoing shedding from the primary virus infection was associated with viral interference after the secondary challenge. Conclusions. The interval between infections and the sequential combination of viruses were important determinants of viral interference. The influenza viruses in this study appear to have an ordered hierarchy according to their ability to block or delay infection, which may contribute to the dominance of different viruses often seen in an influenza season.
Understanding the decay and maintenance of long-term SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in infected or vaccinated people and how vaccines protect against other SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical for ...assessing public vaccination plans. Here, we measured different plasm antibody levels 2 and 12 months after disease onset, including anti-RBD, anti-N, total neutralizing antibodies, and two neutralizing-antibody clusters. We found that total neutralizing antibodies declined more slowly than total anti-RBD and anti-N IgG, and the two neutralizing-antibody clusters decayed even more slowly than total neutralizing antibodies. Interestingly, the level of neutralizing antibodies at 12 months after disease onset was significantly lower than that at 2 months but more broadly neutralized SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Lambda (C.37). Significant immune escape by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was also observed 2 months post-recovery. Furthermore, we revealed that a high percentage of virus-specific CD4
T cells and cTfh1 were associated with a slower decline in humoral immunity, accompanied by higher levels of CXCR3 ligands such as CXCL9 and CXCL10, higher frequency of cTfh1, and lower levels of cTfh2 and cTfh17. Our data highlight the importance of coordinating T-cell and humoral immunity to achieve long-term protective immunity.
The inositol trisphosphate receptor (Formula: see text) is one of the most important cellular components responsible for oscillations in the cytoplasmic calcium concentration. Over the past decade, ...two major questions about the Formula: see text have arisen. Firstly, how best should the Formula: see text be modeled? In other words, what fundamental properties of the Formula: see text allow it to perform its function, and what are their quantitative properties? Secondly, although calcium oscillations are caused by the stochastic opening and closing of small numbers of Formula: see text, is it possible for a deterministic model to be a reliable predictor of calcium behavior? Here, we answer these two questions, using airway smooth muscle cells (ASMC) as a specific example. Firstly, we show that periodic calcium waves in ASMC, as well as the statistics of calcium puffs in other cell types, can be quantitatively reproduced by a two-state model of the Formula: see text, and thus the behavior of the Formula: see text is essentially determined by its modal structure. The structure within each mode is irrelevant for function. Secondly, we show that, although calcium waves in ASMC are generated by a stochastic mechanism, Formula: see text stochasticity is not essential for a qualitative prediction of how oscillation frequency depends on model parameters, and thus deterministic Formula: see text models demonstrate the same level of predictive capability as do stochastic models. We conclude that, firstly, calcium dynamics can be accurately modeled using simplified Formula: see text models, and, secondly, to obtain qualitative predictions of how oscillation frequency depends on parameters it is sufficient to use a deterministic model.
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