To determine the survival rates and independent predictors of survival using a contemporary international cohort of patients with stage III melanoma.
Complete clinicopathologic and follow-up data ...were available for 2,313 patients with stage III disease in an updated and expanded American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) melanoma staging database. Kaplan-Meier and Cox multivariate survival analyses were performed.
Among all 2,313 patients with stage III disease, 81% had micrometastases, and 19% had clinically detectable macrometastases. The 5-year overall survival was 63%; it was 67% for patients with nodal micrometastases, and it was 43% for those with nodal macrometastases (P < .001). Tremendous heterogeneity in survival was observed, particularly in the microscopically detected nodal metastasis subset (from 23% to 87% for 5-year survival). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that in patients with nodal micrometastases, number of tumor-containing lymph nodes, primary tumor thickness, patient age, ulceration, and anatomic site of the primary independently predicted survival (all P < .01). When added to the model, primary tumor mitotic rate was the second-most powerful predictor of survival after the number of tumor-containing nodes. In contrast, for patients with nodal macrometastases, the number of tumor-containing nodes, primary ulceration, and patient age independently predicted survival (P < .01).
In this multi-institutional analysis, we demonstrated remarkable heterogeneity of prognosis among patients with stage III melanoma, especially among those with nodal micrometastases. These results should be incorporated into the design and interpretation of future clinical trials involving patients with stage III melanoma.
The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic value of primary tumor mitotic rate compared with other clinical and pathologic features of stages I and II melanoma.
From the American ...Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) melanoma staging database, information was extracted for 13,296 patients with stages I and II disease who had mitotic rate data available.
Survival times declined as mitotic rate increased. Ten-year survival ranged from 93% for patients whose tumors had 0 mitosis/mm(2) to 48% for those with ≥ 20/mm(2) (P < .001). Mean number of mitoses/mm(2) increased as the primary melanomas became thicker (1.0 for melanomas ≤ 1 mm, 3.5 for 1.01 to 2.0 mm, 7.3 for 3.01 to 4.0 mm, and 9.6 for > 8 mm). Ulceration was also associated with a higher mitotic rate; 59% of ulcerated melanomas had ≥ 5 mitoses/mm(2) compared with 16% of nonulcerated melanomas (P < .001). In a multivariate analysis of 10,233 patients, the independent predictive factors for survival in order of statistical significance were as follows: tumor thickness (χ(2) = 104.9; P < .001), mitotic rate (χ(2) = 67.0; P < .001), patient age (χ(2) = 48.2; P < .001), ulceration (χ(2) = 46.4; P < .001), anatomic site (χ(2) = 34.6; P < .001), and patient sex (χ(2) = 33.9; P < .001). Clark level of invasion was not an independent predictor of survival (χ(2) = 3.2; P = .37).
A high mitotic rate in a primary melanoma is associated with a lower survival probability. Among the independent predictors of melanoma-specific survival, mitotic rate was the strongest prognostic factor after tumor thickness.
To revise the staging system for cutaneous melanoma under the auspices of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC).
The prognostic factors analysis described in the companion publication (this ...issue), as well as evidence from the published literature, was used to assemble the tumor-node-metastasis criteria and stage grouping for the melanoma staging system.
Major changes include (1) melanoma thickness and ulceration but not level of invasion to be used in the T category (except for T1 melanomas); (2) the number of metastatic lymph nodes rather than their gross dimensions and the delineation of clinically occult (ie, microscopic) versus clinically apparent (ie, macroscopic) nodal metastases to be used in the N category; (3) the site of distant metastases and the presence of elevated serum lactic dehydrogenase to be used in the M category; (4) an upstaging of all patients with stage I, II, and III disease when a primary melanoma is ulcerated; (5) a merging of satellite metastases around a primary melanoma and in-transit metastases into a single staging entity that is grouped into stage III disease; and (6) a new convention for defining clinical and pathologic staging so as to take into account the staging information gained from intraoperative lymphatic mapping and sentinel node biopsy.
This revision will become official with publication of the sixth edition of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual in the year 2002.
The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) recently proposed major revisions of the tumor-node-metastases (TNM) categories and stage groupings for cutaneous melanoma. Thirteen cancer centers and ...cancer cooperative groups contributed staging and survival data from a total of 30,450 melanoma patients from their databases in order to validate this staging proposal.
There were 17,600 melanoma patients with complete clinical, pathologic, and follow-up information. Factors predicting melanoma-specific survival rates were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Follow-up survival data for 5 years or longer were available for 73% of the patients.
This analysis demonstrated that (1) in the T category, tumor thickness and ulceration were the most powerful predictors of survival, and the level of invasion had a significant impact only within the subgroup of thin (< or = 1 mm) melanomas; (2) in the N category, the following three independent factors were identified: the number of metastatic nodes, whether nodal metastases were clinically occult or clinically apparent, and the presence or absence of primary tumor ulceration; and (3) in the M category, nonvisceral metastases was associated with a better survival compared with visceral metastases. A marked diversity in the natural history of pathologic stage III melanoma was demonstrated by five-fold differences in 5-year survival rates for defined subgroups. This analysis also demonstrated that large and complex data sets could be used effectively to examine prognosis and survival outcome in melanoma patients.
The results of this evidence-based methodology were incorporated into the AJCC melanoma staging as described in the companion publication.
To evaluate the prognostic significance of sentinel node biopsy in the management of stage IB and II melanoma patients, and to evaluate the status of nonsentinel nodes as a "second step key factor" ...to assess the prognosis of these patients.
We conducted an analysis of data collected in a prospective database.
From February 1994 to June 2005, 1,108 consecutive patients with stage IB and II melanoma were submitted to sentinel node biopsy; 176 patients (15.9%) had occult node metastases. The frequency of positive nodes increased with increasing Breslow's thickness. The largest diameter of metastatic foci and their localization within the lymph node were associated with the risk of nonsentinel node metastases only. The 5-year survival of patients with positive sentinel nodes was 81.4% in patients with one positive node and 39.6% in patients with two positive nodes (P = .056). Multivariate analysis indicated that status of sentinel nodes is a key factor and that sex and Breslow's thickness maintain statistically significant relevance. Ulceration, which was associated with survival when considered as single factor (P < .001) had no impact on survival in the multivariate analysis (P = .10). To evaluate the relevance of metastases to nonsentinel nodes, we identified four groups of patients.
Evaluation of the sentinel node is a useful procedure to identify patients to be submitted for complete lymph node dissection. The procedure makes it possible to assess the best prognosis of patients.
BACKGROUND
Primary cutaneous melanoma is often infiltrated by lymphocytes that provide the opportunity to study what may be the local immunologic reaction to the tumor and to correlate the presence ...of these lymphocytes with overall survival. In an attempt to delineate the histologic diagnostic criteria, to classify different categories of lymphocytic infiltrates, previously described by Elder et al. as brisk, nonbrisk, and absent, and to verify their prognostic significance, we reviewed 285 consecutive cases of primary cutaneous melanomas (American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage I and II).
METHODS
In addition to clinical variables (age, sex, and location of tumor) and the presence of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes in the vertical growth phase, the histopathologic attributes reviewed included mitotic rate, thickness, and regression. The results were derived from independent histopathologic review by two pathologists (C.G.C., M.C.M., Jr.) on separate occasions. A multivariate analysis of survival was performed with the Cox's regression model.
RESULTS
The 5‐ and 10‐year survival rates for melanoma with a vertical growth phase and a brisk infiltrate were 77% and 55%, respectively. For tumors with a nonbrisk infiltrate, the 5‐ and 10‐year survival rates were 53% and 45%, respectively, and for tumors with absent tumor infiltrating lymphocytes, the 5‐ and 10‐year survival rates were 37% and 27%, respectively. Mitotic index, thickness, and tumor infiltrating lymphocytes were statistically (univariate analysis) significant prognostic factors (P = 0.003, 0.000001, 0.0003, respectively), whereas the presence or absence of regression is not. In the univariate statistical analysis, the sex of patients and site of melanoma also were statistically significant (P = 0.00001 and 0.002 respectively), whereas age (P = 0.98) was not statistically significant. The multivariate analysis of thickness, mitotic rate, and tumor infiltrating lymphocytes showed that thickness and presence of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes were significant and independent histologic prognostic factors. With regard to the clinical factors, sex retained its independent prognostic significance. The histologic characteristics of melanoma with vertical growth phase (brisk, nonbrisk, and absent) are exemplified.
CONCLUSIONS
We demonstrated that when categories of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes are strictly defined, they indeed have very strong predictive value for primary cutaneous melanomas with a vertical growth phase. This work confirms the work of Clark et al. and fully illustrates the brisk, nonbrisk, and absent categories of infiltration. Finally, a multivariate analysis comparing thickness, mitotic rate and presence of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes showed that only thickness and presence of tumor infiltrating lymphocytes are significant and independent positive histologic prognostic factors. Cancer 1996;77:1303‐10.
There is considerable interest in biologic markers able to predict the response of cancer patients to therapy. HER2 overexpression is a potential indicator of responsiveness to doxorubicin and ...paclitaxel and of unresponsiveness to tamoxifen in breast carcinoma patients. However, the significance of HER2 overexpression in responsiveness to cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil (CMF) has remained unclear. In this study, we investigated this issue in the 386 breast cancer patients in the first CMF controlled clinical trial with a 20-year follow-up.
Node-positive breast carcinoma patients were randomly assigned to receive either no further treatment after radical mastectomy (179 women) or 12 monthly cycles of adjuvant CMF chemotherapy (207 women). Overexpression of HER2 and the status of other tumor variables was assessed by immunohistochemistry in at least 324 (84%) of the 386 patients. Statistical analyses were performed to assess the efficacy of CMF treatment for the subgroups defined by HER2 and the status of other variables using a Bayesian approach. The end points considered were relapse-free survival (RFS) and cause-specific survival (CSS).
Bayesian analysis of the treatment effect for HER2 and other variables indicated a clinical benefit from CMF treatment in all subgroups defined according to variables status. In particular regarding HER2 status, Bayesian estimates of RFS hazard ratios were equal to 0.484 and 0.641 and estimates of CSS hazard ratios were equal to 0.495 and 0.730 for HER2-positive and -negative tumors, respectively.
CMF treatment showed a clinical benefit in the considered subgroups, defined according to HER2 and other tumor variables status. Patients with HER2-positive or HER2-negative tumors benefit from CMF treatment, and the poor prognosis associated with the HER2 overexpression in the untreated group could be completely overcome by the chemotherapy treatment.
Many randomised trials assessing interferon-α (IFN-α) as adjuvant therapy for high-risk malignant melanoma have been undertaken. To better assess the role of IFN-α, an individual patient data (IPD) ...meta-analysis of these trials was undertaken.
IPD was sought from all randomised trials of adjuvant IFN-α versus no IFN-α for high-risk melanoma. Primary outcomes were event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS). Standard methods for quantitative IPD meta-analysis were used. Subgroup analyses by dose, duration of treatment and various patient and disease-specific parameters were performed.
Fifteen trials were included in the analysis (eleven with IPD). EFS was significantly improved with IFN-α (hazard ratio HR = 0.86, CI 0.81–0.91; P < 0.00001), as was OS (HR = 0.90, CI 0.85–0.97; P = 0.003). The absolute differences in EFS at 5 and 10 years were 3.5% and 2.7%, and for OS were 3.0% and 2.8% respectively in favour of IFN-α. There was no evidence that the benefit of IFN-α differed depending on dose or duration of treatment, or by age, gender, site of primary tumour, disease stage, Breslow thickness, or presence of clinical nodes. Only for ulceration was there evidence of an interaction (test for heterogeneity: P = 0.04 for EFS; P = 0.002 for OS); only patients with ulcerated tumours appeared to obtain benefit from IFN-α.
This meta-analysis provides clear evidence that adjuvant IFN-α significantly reduces the risk of relapse and improves survival and shows no benefit for higher doses compared to lower doses. The increased benefit in patients with ulcerated tumours, and lack of benefit in patients without ulceration, needs further investigation.
•Adjuvant IFN-α significantly reduces the risk of relapse and improves overall survival.•There was no evidence of a difference between higher and lower doses of adjuvant IFN-α.•There was no evidence that the benefit of IFN-α differed in different patient types, except for ulceration.•The finding that ulceration may be predictive of response to IFN-α needs confirmation in appropriately designed prospective studies.
The association between HER-2-positivity, and prognostic variables and survival have been addressed in many studies with still controversial results because of the small series analyzed.
A series of ...1928 primary breast carcinomas was analyzed for the prognostic potential of HER-2 overexpression.
In our series, HER-2-positivity was not associated with nodal status, unless the number of infiltrated nodes was considered, whereas it was strongly associated with large tumors (P < 10(-4)), grade III tumors (P < 10(-4)), lymphoid infiltration (P < 10(-4)), and absence of hormone receptor expression (P < 10(-4)). HER-2 overexpression was a strong prognostic indicator in N+ patients (P < 10(-7)), whereas its prognostic impact was weak and not statistically significant in the N- patients. Analysis of the hazard ratio of relapse in relation to time from surgery indicates that the poor prognosis associated with HER-2 positivity in N+ patients was found to be attributable to a peak of relapses in the first 3-4 years from surgery. Multivariate analysis of different prognostic factors in HER-2+ and HER-2- subsets indicated that grade is the most important factor followed by nodal status, lymphoid infiltration, and tumor size in HER-2-negative breast carcinomas, whereas nodal status was the most important prognostic factor, with tumor size showing only borderline significance, in the HER-2-positive group.
Together, the results indicate that HER-2-positive breast carcinomas represent a particular subset of tumors with peculiar clinical and pathological behaviors. Thus, conclusions drawn from clinical trials, which serve as the basis for clinical management of breast carcinomas, might not always be valid for this low-frequency subset.
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