The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By ...concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest‐weed‐disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades.
A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to ...climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14% (3–31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically.
The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in ...import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Niño likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.1-5.4% but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8%. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Niña years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0%). Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.
Metazoan development involves the successive activation and silencing of specific gene expression programs and is driven by tissue-specific transcription factors programming the chromatin landscape. ...To understand how this process executes an entire developmental pathway, we generated global gene expression, chromatin accessibility, histone modification, and transcription factor binding data from purified embryonic stem cell-derived cells representing six sequential stages of hematopoietic specification and differentiation. Our data reveal the nature of regulatory elements driving differential gene expression and inform how transcription factor binding impacts on promoter activity. We present a dynamic core regulatory network model for hematopoietic specification and demonstrate its utility for the design of reprogramming experiments. Functional studies motivated by our genome-wide data uncovered a stage-specific role for TEAD/YAP factors in mammalian hematopoietic specification. Our study presents a powerful resource for studying hematopoiesis and demonstrates how such data advance our understanding of mammalian development.
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•Comprehensive genome-scale resource for studying embryonic blood cell specification•Genome-scale definition of cis elements driving differential gene expression•A gene regulatory network model for hematopoiesis aiding reprogramming experiments•Analysis suggests a role for TEAD factors in hematopoietic specification
Goode, Obier, Vijayabaskar et al. isolate cells at six different stages of hematopoietic differentiation, starting from embryonic stem cells, and perform a comprehensive multi-omics analysis of this developmental pathway. The data identify regulators of hematopoietic specification and highlight the minimum requirements for the reprogramming of non-blood cells to blood.
► Calibration methods can produce robust projections of daily temperature for crop models. ► The ‘perfect sibling’ approach could be more widely adopted to assess calibration techniques. ► ‘Delta’ ...methods perform best, but the use of several calibration methods is encouraged. ► Uncertainties from choice of calibration approach and climate model response are comparable. ► Use of a wide range of AOGCMs, calibration approaches and crop modelling strategies is essential.
Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect sibling’ framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used ‘delta’ (change factor) and ‘nudging’ (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.
We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated ...characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.
Assessments of the relationships between crop productivity and climate change rely upon a combination of modelling and measurement. As part of this review, this relationship is discussed in the ...context of crop and climate simulation. Methods for linking these two types of models are reviewed, with a primary focus on large-area crop modelling techniques. Recent progress in simulating the impacts of climate change on crops is presented, and the application of these methods to the exploration of adaptation options is discussed. Specific advances include ensemble simulations and improved understanding of biophysical processes. Finally, the challenges associated with impacts and adaptation research are discussed. It is argued that the generation of knowledge for policy and adaptation should be based not only on syntheses of published studies, but also on a more synergistic and holistic research framework that includes: (i) reliable quantification of uncertainty; (ii) techniques for combining diverse modelling approaches and observations that focus on fundamental processes; and (iii) judicious choice and calibration of models, including simulation at appropriate levels of complexity that accounts for the principal drivers of crop productivity, which may well include both biophysical and socio-economic factors. It is argued that such a framework will lead to reliable methods for linking simulation to real-world adaptation options, thus making practical use of the huge global effort to understand and predict climate change.
A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual ...models but that the ensemble mean (e‐mean) and median (e‐median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is the predictive quality of e‐mean and e‐median, and how does that depend on the ensemble characteristics. Our empirical results are based on five MME studies applied to wheat, using different data sets but the same 25 crop models. We show that the ensemble predictors have quite high skill and are better than most and sometimes all individual models for most groups of environments and most response variables. Mean squared error of e‐mean decreases monotonically with the size of the ensemble if models are added at random, but has a minimum at usually 2–6 models if best‐fit models are added first. Our theoretical results describe the ensemble using four parameters: average bias, model effect variance, environment effect variance, and interaction variance. We show analytically that mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of e‐mean will always be smaller than MSEP averaged over models and will be less than MSEP of the best model if squared bias is less than the interaction variance. If models are added to the ensemble at random, MSEP of e‐mean will decrease as the inverse of ensemble size, with a minimum equal to squared bias plus interaction variance. This minimum value is not necessarily small, and so it is important to evaluate the predictive quality of e‐mean for each target population of environments. These results provide new information on the advantages of ensemble predictors, but also show their limitations.
One way of estimating the projected impact of climate change on crops is to use crop models. There is a large variability in results of different crop models, but it has been observed that the mean or median of a multimodel ensemble (MME) often gives good agreement with observed data. We used empirical data from several MME studies, plus theoretical arguments, to better understand why and when the MME mean will be a good predictor. This should help modelers decide how to create and use MMEs for climate impact assessment.
Common bean is the most consumed legume in the world and an important source of protein in Latin America, Eastern, and Southern Africa. It is grown in a variety of environments with mean air ...temperatures of between 14°C and 35°C and is more sensitive to high temperatures than other legumes. As global heating continues, breeding for heat tolerance in common bean is an urgent priority. Transpirational cooling has been shown to be an important mechanism for heat avoidance in many crops, and leaf cooling traits have been used to breed for both drought and heat tolerance. As yet, little is known about the magnitude of leaf cooling in common bean, nor whether this trait is functionally linked to heat tolerance. Accordingly, we explore the extent and genotypic variation of transpirational cooling in common bean. Our results show that leaf cooling is an important heat avoidance mechanism in common bean. On average, leaf temperatures are 5°C cooler than air temperatures, and can range from between 13°C cooler and 2°C warmer. We show that the magnitude of leaf cooling keeps leaf temperatures within a photosynthetically functional range. Heat tolerant genotypes cool more than heat sensitive genotypes and the magnitude of this difference increases at elevated temperatures. Furthermore, we find that differences in leaf cooling are largest at the top of the canopy where determinate bush beans are most sensitive to the impact of high temperatures during the flowering period. Our results suggest that heat tolerant genotypes cool more than heat sensitive genotypes as a result of higher stomatal conductance and enhanced transpirational cooling. We demonstrate that it is possible to accurately simulate the temperature of the leaf by genotype using only air temperature and relative humidity. Our work suggests that greater leaf cooling is a pathway to heat tolerance. Bean breeders can use the difference between air and leaf temperature to screen for genotypes with enhanced capacity for heat avoidance. Once evaluated for a particular target population of environments, breeders can use our model for modeling leaf temperatures by genotype to assess the value of selecting for cooler beans.
Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate ...model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near‐term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.
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