On 14 November 2016, a magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck the small coastal settlement of Kaikōura, Aotearoa-New Zealand. With an economy based on tourism, agriculture, and fishing, Kaikōura was ...immediately faced with significant logistical, economic, and social challenges caused by damage to critical infrastructure and lifelines, essential to its main industries. Massive landslips cut off road and rail access, stranding hundreds of tourists, and halting the collection, processing and distribution of agricultural products. At the coast, the seabed rose two metres, limiting harbour-access to high tide, with implications for whale watching tours and commercial fisheries. Throughout the region there was significant damage to homes, businesses, and farmland, leaving owners and residents facing an uncertain future. This paper uses qualitative case study analysis to explore post-quake transformations in a rural context. The aim is to gain insight into the distinctive dynamics of disaster response mechanisms, focusing on two initiatives that have emerged in direct response to the disaster. The first examines the ways in which agriculture, food harvesting, production and distribution are being reimagined with the potential to enhance regional food security. The second examines the rescaling of power in decision-making processes following the disaster, specifically examining the ways in which rural actors are leveraging networks to meet their needs and the consequences of that repositioning on rural (and national) governance arrangements. In these and other ways, the local economy is being revitalised, and regional resilience enhanced through diversification, capitalising not on the disaster but the region’s natural, social, and cultural capital. Drawing on insights and experience of local stakeholders, policy- and decision-makers, and community representatives we highlight the diverse ways in which these endeavours are an attempt to create something new, revealing also the barriers which needed to be overcome to reshape local livelihoods. Results reveal that the process of transformation as part of rural recovery must be grounded in the lived reality of local residents and their understanding of place, incorporating and building on regional social, environmental, and economic characteristics. In this, the need to respond rapidly to realise opportunities must be balanced with the community-centric approach, with greater recognition given to the contested nature of the decisions to be made. Insights from the case examples can inform preparedness and recovery planning elsewhere, and provide a rich, real-time example of the ways in which disasters can create opportunities for reimagining resilient futures.
The parallel scenario process enables characterization of climate-related risks and response options to climate change under different socio-economic futures and development prospects. The process is ...based on representative concentration pathways, shared socio-economic pathways, and shared policy assumptions. Although this scenario architecture is a powerful tool for evaluating the intersection of climate and society at the regional and global level, more specific context is needed to explore and understand risks, drivers, and enablers of change at the national and local level. We discuss the need for a stronger recognition of such national-scale characteristics to make climate change scenarios more relevant at the national and local scale, and propose ways to enrich the scenario architecture with locally relevant details that enhance salience, legitimacy, and credibility for stakeholders. Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options. Reviewing adaptation pathways for New Zealand case studies, we demonstrate how this approach could bring the global-scale scenario architecture within reach of local-scale decision-making. Such a process would enhance the utility of scenarios for mapping climate-related risks and adaptation options at the local scale, involving appropriate stakeholder involvement.
The ability to anticipate, plan for and adapt to the changes of the early Anthropocene is limited by human behaviour, political inertia, and short-termism. This ‘tragedy of the horizon’ is explored ...through three specific lenses on early Anthropocene futures. We begin with the dominant scientific evidence: mathematical and probabilistic modelling synthesised into increasingly rigorous and sophisticated scenarios for assessing policy options and broadening societal understanding. We then draw on the set of values, institutions, laws, and symbols through which people imagine their social whole in what Sheila Jasanoff describes as sociotechnical imaginaries. We also draw on institutional epistemologies as reflected in two global assessment initiatives: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which has been described as a ‘view from nowhere’, and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, a ‘view from everywhere’, though analysis has concluded that both organisations merely offer ‘views from somewhere’. We then present examples of other early Anthropocene imaginaries from writers, activists, and philosophers. The arc through these suggests both common themes and broad variation in underlying assumptions and world views. We argue that, especially in a post-truth world, a much richer form of (re)visioning the future is required in a project that must span far beyond the biophysical and include the full breadth of the social sciences and humanities. Without the inclusion of multiple underlying, competing, and creative long-term perspectives, society in general, and research in particular, may not adequately illuminate the complex possible future trajectories.
The management of natural resources-from forests to fisheries to freshwater-is becoming increasingly complex and requires new tools and processes for engaging with individuals, communities, and ...decision-makers. Policy makers and practitioners have begun using serious games (SGs) (those used for purposes other than entertainment) to overcome some of the complex challenges of governing resources in social-ecological systems. This paper uses a systematic literature review methodology to assess role-playing SGs for natural resource management. Fifty-two articles from the role-playing game (RPG) subset of SGs are identified, synthesised and analysed using a multi-criteria evaluation framework. First, we explore three theoretical and conceptual elements of games: principles of RPGs, functions of games, and (practical) game characteristics. We evaluate game elements, including game design, adherence to reality and the degree to which games integrate elements of participatory-and action research. These dimensions of RPGs are then analysed and discussed. Particular attention is paid to the value and application of RPGs to address complex problems with interacting environmental, social, cultural and economic challenges, and the extent to which they can inform adaptive governance solutions. Results show that RPGs can be a valuable tool at different levels; however, we also identify important gaps in the current state of knowledge, in particular, related to bridging community-and higher-level decision-making scales through RPGs.
Decision making in complex contexts such as disaster risk management requires collaborative approaches to knowledge production. Evidence-based disaster risk management and pre-event planning relies ...on robust and relevant disaster risk knowledge. We report on a case study of Project AF8, a "cocreation" collaboration involving local- and central-government disaster risk management agencies and groups, critical infrastructure organizations, and scientists from six universities and Crown Research Institutes. Participant observation and interview data are used to document and analyze the processes used to generate, share, and apply multidisciplinary disaster risk knowledge. Project AF8 was conceived as a cross-jurisdictional and multiagency initiative to plan and prepare for a coordinated response across the South Island following a large magnitude earthquake along the Alpine Fault, one of New Zealand's major natural hazard risks. Findings show that (1) practitioners at all levels operate in highly uncertain environments and therefore have specific knowledge needs at different times and for different purposes, (2) disaster risk knowledge was perceived to be most effective when scientifically credible and focused on identifying likely impacts on the capacity of communities to function, and (3) disaster risk knowledge outputs and the processes used to cocreate them were perceived to be equally important. Using cocreation to combine researcher credibility with practitioner relevancy enhanced the legitimacy of Project AF8 processes, the collective disaster risk knowledge they facilitated, and the wider project. In hindsight, a greater focus at the outset on developing a formal coproduction structure may have increased the pace of cocreation, particularly in the early phases. Future interdisciplinary disaster risk management initiatives could benefit by adopting contextually relevant aspects of this example to strengthen the science-practice interface for more effective pre-event planning and decision making.
Climate change poses a significant challenge to primary industries and adaptation will be required to reduce detrimental impacts and realise opportunities. Despite the breadth of information to ...support adaptation planning however, knowledge is fragmented, obscuring information needs, hampering strategic planning and constraining decision-making capacities. In this letter, we present and apply the Adaptation Knowledge Cycle (AKC), a heuristic for rapidly evaluating and systematising adaptation research by analytical foci: Impacts, Implications, Decisions or Actions. We demonstrate its application through an assessment of ten years' climate change adaptation research for New Zealand's primary industries. The letter draws on the results of systematic review, empirical analysis, workshops, interviews, narrative analyses and pathways planning to synthesise information and identify knowledge gaps. Results show the heuristic's simplicity is valuable for cross- and transdisciplinary communication on adaptation in New Zealand's primary industries. Results also provide insight into what we know and need to know with respect to undertaking adaptation planning. With the development of tools and processes to inform decision making under conditions of uncertainty-such as adaptation pathways-it is increasingly important to efficiently and accurately determine knowledge needs. The combination of systematic data collection techniques, and heuristics such as the AKC may provide researchers and stakeholders with an efficient, robust tool to review and synthesise existing knowledge, and identify emerging research priorities. Results can in turn support the design of targeted research and inform adaptation strategies for policy and practice.
Commercial cultivation of kiwifruit in New Zealand is concentrated in a relatively small area of the North Island. Cultivation is economically significant and growing quickly. However, current ...understanding of vulnerability for this, and other primary sector activities in New Zealand, makes almost exclusive use of linear outcome-oriented frameworks. Drawing on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with kiwifruit growers and orchard managers, workshops and analysis of secondary data, a “bottom-up” contextual assessment of vulnerability was developed and empirically applied. The findings suggest that climate and markets are the main sources of exposure for growers, with sensitivity moderated by location. Growers employ mostly short-term, reactive adaptive strategies to manage climate exposure and sensitivity, but have less capacity to respond to market-related stressors. Warmer and drier conditions are likely to have adverse effects for kiwifruit production and compound existing vulnerabilities. An ageing population and other processes of rural change may also constrain future adaptation. In order to realise opportunities and minimise losses, longer-term strategic responses are required. The paper demonstrates the need to move beyond outcome-oriented and model-based vulnerability assessments in New Zealand, to consider the broad range of the factors that contribute to vulnerability in the nation’s agricultural sectors. It provides a basis for further consideration of multiple exogenous impacts in the industry and confirms the critical importance of qualitatively vulnerability assessments to determine spatially specific outcomes.
The concept of ‘resilience’ has recently gained traction in a range of contexts. Its various interpretations and framings are now used to examine a variety of issues, particularly relating to the ...human dimensions of global change. This can pose challenges to scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers seeking to develop focused research programmes, design targeted interventions, and communicate across disciplinary boundaries. The concept of resilience is widely used in Aotearoa-New Zealand, where it informs both government policy and research programmes. Resilience is particularly relevant in this small developed nation, which is heavily reliant on primary production in rural areas and affected by a range of geological and climatic hazards. To understand the range and extent of application of resilience in the rural context, we use systematic review methods to identify, characterise, and synthesise this knowledge base. Currently, research applying the concept of resilience in the rural context is limited in areal extent, largely quantitative in nature, and led by a small number of researchers. There is limited evidence of collaboration. Research has focused on a small number of hazards, failing to capture the diversity of risks and hazards in addition to their impacts. The results of our analysis and methodology offer important insights for meta-analyses of risk and hazard scholarship. The findings provide a baseline to track the future progress and effectiveness of resilience interventions and help inform current and future research priorities targeting persistent vulnerabilities in rural New Zealand and elsewhere.
New research is drawing attention to the potential for climate change to generate cascading impacts and implications across linked human-environment systems, requiring closer accounting of these ...interactions to anticipate the emergence of surprises and feedbacks. However, there is little practical guidance for those interested in characterising, identifying or assessing cascades, and few empirical examples. In this paper, we elaborate a systems-based methodology to identify and evaluate cascading climate change impacts and implications. We illustrate its application using the case of a participatory process with urban infrastructure managers, facing the legacy effects of damaging earthquakes and the prospect of future climate change. The results show the proposed approach and visualisation of cascades as causal diagrams provides a robust and flexible analytical framework. The use of systems thinking, visual aids, interactive discussion and expert elicitation generated valuable information about potential cascades, their interactions across domains of interest, and the implications for management. The process can provide a basis for further empirical application and advance methodological and conceptual development.
Specifically, the systems methodology:•Identifies interdependencies and interconnections which may serve as transmission pathways for climate-related impacts;•Enhanced stakeholders’ understanding of multiple causes and effects of climate change; and•Produced a useful visual aid for stakeholders to explore cascading impacts and implications, and opportunities for intervention.
Climate change is being felt across all human and natural systems in Aotearoa New Zealand and is projected to worsen this decade as impacts compound and cascade through natural system and sectoral ...dependencies. The effectiveness of adaptation is constrained by how fast greenhouse gas emissions are reduced globally, the pace of change, the frequency and progression of impacts, and the capacity of our natural, societal and political systems to respond. We explore how these systems and sectors interact with existing and projected climate change stressors by categorising climate change impacts (Trends and Events) and consequential thresholds (Thresholds), and by grouping systems and sectors by types (Typologies). This approach has identified commonalities and differences between the typologies which are illustrated with examples. Critical constraints and opportunities for adaptation have been identified to guide sector adaptation decision-making and for ongoing adaptation progress and effectiveness monitoring. Constraints are found across all sectors, and opportunities exist to address them through modelling and projections, monitoring frameworks, decision tools and measures, governance coordination and integration of the Māori worldview of the relationship between humans and nature. However, limits to adaptation exist and will increase over time unless all sectors and all nations urgently reduce their emissions.
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