Four cluster randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) conducted in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) have reported reductions in patient risk through increased healthcare worker (HCW) influenza ...vaccination. This evidence has led to expansive policies of enforcement that include all staff of acute care hospitals and other healthcare settings beyond LTCFs. We critique and quantify the cRCT evidence for indirect patient benefit underpinning policies of mandatory HCW influenza vaccination.
Plausibility of the four cRCT findings attributing indirect patient benefits to HCW influenza vaccination was assessed by comparing percentage reductions in patient risk reported by the cRCTs to predicted values. Plausibly predicted values were derived according to the basic mathematical principle of dilution, taking into account HCW influenza vaccine coverage and the specificity of patient outcomes for influenza. Accordingly, predicted values were calculated as a function of relevant compound probabilities including vaccine efficacy (ranging 40-60% in HCWs and favourably assuming the same indirect protection conferred through them to patients) × change in proportionate HCW influenza vaccine coverage (as reported by each cRCT) × percentage of a given patient outcome (e.g. influenza-like illness (ILI) or all-cause mortality) plausibly due to influenza virus. The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) for HCWs to indirectly prevent patient death was recalibrated based on real patient data of hospital-acquired influenza, with adjustment for potential under-detection (5.2-fold), and using favourable assumptions of HCW-attributable risk (ranging 60-80%).
In attributing patient benefit to increased HCW influenza vaccine coverage, each cRCT was found to violate the basic mathematical principle of dilution by reporting greater percentage reductions with less influenza-specific patient outcomes (i.e., all-cause mortality > ILI > laboratory-confirmed influenza) and/or patient mortality reductions exceeding even favourably-derived predicted values by at least 6- to 15-fold. If extrapolated to all LTCF and hospital staff in the United States, the prior cRCT-claimed NNV of 8 would implausibly mean >200,000 and >675,000 patient deaths, respectively, could be prevented annually by HCW influenza vaccination, inconceivably exceeding total US population mortality estimates due to seasonal influenza each year, or during the 1918 pandemic, respectively. More realistic recalibration based on actual patient data instead shows that at least 6000 to 32,000 hospital workers would need to be vaccinated before a single patient death could potentially be averted.
The four cRCTs underpinning policies of enforced HCW influenza vaccination attribute implausibly large reductions in patient risk to HCW vaccination, casting serious doubts on their validity. The impression that unvaccinated HCWs place their patients at great influenza peril is exaggerated. Instead, the HCW-attributable risk and vaccine-preventable fraction both remain unknown and the NNV to achieve patient benefit still requires better understanding. Although current scientific data are inadequate to support the ethical implementation of enforced HCW influenza vaccination, they do not refute approaches to support voluntary vaccination or other more broadly protective practices, such as staying home or masking when acutely ill.
Interim results from Canada's Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network show that during a season characterised by early co-circulation of influenza A and B viruses, the 2019/20 influenza vaccine ...has provided substantial protection against medically-attended influenza illness. Adjusted VE overall was 58% (95% confidence interval (CI): 47 to 66): 44% (95% CI: 26 to 58) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 62% (95% CI: 37 to 77) for A(H3N2) and 69% (95% CI: 57 to 77) for influenza B viruses, predominantly B/Victoria lineage.
Background. Characterizing household transmission of the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus (pH1N1) is critical for the design of effective public health measures to mitigate spread. Our objectives ...were to estimate the secondary attack rates (SARs), the proportion of asymptomatic infections, and risk factors for pH1N1 transmission within households on the basis of active clinical follow-up and laboratory-confirmed outcomes. Methods. We conducted a prospective observational study during the period May-July 2009 (ie, during the first wave of the pH1N1 pandemic) in Quebec City, Canada. We assessed pH1N1 transmission in 42 households (including 43 primary case patients and 119 contacts). Clinical data were prospectively collected during serial household visits. Secondary case patients were identified by clinical criteria and laboratory diagnostic tests, including serological and molecular methods. Results. We identified 53 laboratory-confirmed secondary case patients with pH1N1 virus infection, for an SAR of 45% (95% confidence interval CI, 35.6%–53.5%). Thirty-four (81%) of the households had ∼1 confirmed secondary case patient. The mean serial interval between onset of primary and confirmed secondary cases was 3.9 days (median interval, 3 days). Influenza-like illness (fever and cough or sore throat) developed in 29% (95% CI, 20.5%–36.7%) of household contacts. Five (9.4%) of secondary case patients were asymptomatic. Young children (<7 years of age) were at highest risk of developing laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness. Primary case patients with both diarrhea and vomiting were the most likely to transmit pH1N1. Conclusion. Household transmission of pH1N1 may be substantially greater than previously estimated, especially in association with clinical presentations that include gastrointestinal complaints. Approximately 10% of pH1N1 infections acquired in the household may be asymptomatic.
Background. Human metapneumovirus (hMPV) is a newly described paramyxovirus that is mainly associated with bronchiolitis in children. We sought to describe the epidemiological, virological, and ...histopathological findings associated with a large outbreak of hMPV infection in a long-term care facility. Methods. An investigation of the outbreak was performed by public health authorities, who used standardized questionnaires to collect relevant clinical information from all residents of the facility. Nasopharyngeal samples were obtained from a subset of patients who had influenza-like illnesses for testing by viral culture and reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Lung tissue samples from a patient whose case was fatal were available for molecular, histopathological, and immunohistochemical testing. Results. A total of 96 (27%) of 364 residents of a long-term care facility presented with respiratory or constitutional symptoms between 1 January 2006 and 15 February 2006. The attack rate in the most affected ward was 72% (31 of 43 patients), which included 4 of the 6 polymerase chain reaction—confirmed cases of hMPV infection. In contrast, viral culture results were positive for hMPV in only 2 of the 5 polymerase chain reaction—positive samples tested. The most reported diagnosis was an upper respiratory tract infection or an influenza-like illness, although 21% of residents in 1 of the 3 wards that had confirmed cases of hMPV infection had lower respiratory tract infections. The fatality rate was 50% (3 of 6 patients) among confirmed cases and 9.4% (9 of 96 patients) among patients with possible cases. A patient with a fatal case had histopathological findings that confirmed the presence of hMPV RNA and proteins in the bronchiolar epithelium of affected lobes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the presence of 2 distinct strains of hMPV circulating simultaneously on different wards. Conclusion. hMPV can be associated with important outbreaks of acute respiratory tract infection in elderly institutionalized persons.
Introduction: Studies in the 1970s and 1980s signaled concern that repeated influenza vaccination could affect vaccine protection. The antigenic distance hypothesis provided a theoretical framework ...to explain variability in repeat vaccination effects based on antigenic similarity between successive vaccine components and the epidemic strain.
Areas covered: A meta-analysis of vaccine effectiveness studies from 2010-11 through 2014-15 shows substantial heterogeneity in repeat vaccination effects within and between seasons and subtypes. When negative effects were observed, they were most pronounced for H3N2, especially in 2014-15 when vaccine components were unchanged and antigenically distinct from the epidemic strain. Studies of repeated vaccination across multiple seasons suggest that vaccine effectiveness may be influenced by more than one prior season. In immunogenicity studies, repeated vaccination blunts the hemagglutinin antibody response, particularly for H3N2.
Expert commentary: Substantial heterogeneity in repeated vaccination effects is not surprising given the variation in study populations and seasons, and the variable effects of antigenic distance and immunological landscape in different age groups and populations. Caution is required in the interpretation of pooled results across multiple seasons, since this can mask important variation in repeat vaccination effects between seasons. Multi-season clinical studies are needed to understand repeat vaccination effects and guide recommendations.
Background. Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) is reformulated annually to contain representative strains of 2 influenza A subtypes (H1N1 and H3N2) and 1 B lineage (Yamagata or Victoria). ...We describe a sentinel surveillance approach to link influenza variant detection with component-specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimation. Methods. The 2006–2007 TIV included A/NewCaledonia/20/1999(H1N1)—like, A/Wisconsin/67/2005(H3N2)— like, and B/Malaysia/2506/2004(Victoria)—like components. Included participants were individuals ⩾9 years of age who presented within 1 week after influenzalike illness onset to a sentinel physician between November 2006 and April 2007. Influenza was identified by real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and/or culture. Isolates were characterized by hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI) and HA1 gene sequence. VE was estimated as 1-odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated versus nonvaccinated persons. Results. A total of 841 participants contributed: 69 (8%) were ⩾65 years of age; 166 (20%) received the 2006–2007 TIV. Influenza was detected in 337 subjects (40%), distributed as follows: A/H3N2, 242 (72%); A/H1N1, 55 (16%); and B, 36 (11%). All but 1 of the A/H1N1 isolates were well matched, half of A/H3N2 isolates were strain mismatched, and all B isolates were lineage-level mismatched to vaccine. Age-adjusted estimated VE for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B components was 92% (95% CI, 40%–91%), 41% (95% CI, 6%–63%), and 19% (95% CI, –112% to 69%), respectively, with an overall VE estimate of 47% (95%CI,18%–65%). Restriction of the analysis to include only working-age adults resulted in lower VE estimates with wide confidence intervals but similar component-specific trends. Conclusions. Sentinel surveillance provides a broad platform to link new variant detection and the composite of circulating viruses to annual monitoring of component-specific VE.
Reimmunizing patients who had an adverse event following immunization (AEFI) is sometimes a challenge because there are limited data on the risk and severity of AEFI recurrence.
To summarize the ...literature on the risk of AEFI recurrence.
PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library.
We included articles in English or French published before September 30, 2016. Articles were selected if they estimated the risk of AEFI recurrence in at least 5 individuals. Studies with experimental vaccines were excluded.
Data on study design, setting, population, vaccines, and AEFI recurrence were extracted.
Twenty-nine articles were included. Among patients with a history of hypotonic hyporesponsive episode (
= 398), anaphylaxis (
= 133), or seizures (
= 60) who were reimmunized, events recurred in 0% to 0.8%. Allergic-like events recurred in 30 of 594 reimmunized patients. Fever recurred in 0% to 84% of 836 reimmunized patients, depending on the vaccine and dose number. Among children with extensive limb swelling after the fourth dose of diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis vaccine, recurrence was higher when the fifth dose was given withthe full-antigen formulation (78%) compared with the reduced-antigen formulation (53%,
= .02) LIMITATIONS: Many studies, included few patients, and those with severe AEFIs were often not reimmunized.
Despite vaccines being administered to millions of people annually, there are few studies in which researchers evaluated AEFI recurrence. Published studies suggest that reimmunization is usually safe. However in these studies, severe cases were often not reimmunized.
In late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008-09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A ...(H1N1) (pH1N1) illness. Several epidemiologic investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this putative association.
(1) test-negative case-control design based on Canada's sentinel vaccine effectiveness monitoring system in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec; (2) conventional case-control design using population controls in Quebec; (3) test-negative case-control design in Ontario; and (4) prospective household transmission (cohort) study in Quebec. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for TIV effect on community- or hospital-based laboratory-confirmed seasonal or pH1N1 influenza cases compared to controls with restriction, stratification, and adjustment for covariates including combinations of age, sex, comorbidity, timeliness of medical visit, prior physician visits, and/or health care worker (HCW) status. For the prospective study risk ratios were computed. Based on the sentinel study of 672 cases and 857 controls, 2008-09 TIV was associated with statistically significant protection against seasonal influenza (odds ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59). In contrast, estimates from the sentinel and three other observational studies, involving a total of 1,226 laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases and 1,505 controls, indicated that prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009, with estimated risk or odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 2.5. Risk of pH1N1 hospitalization was not further increased among vaccinated people when comparing hospitalized to community cases.
Prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009 in Canada. The occurrence of bias (selection, information) or confounding cannot be ruled out. Further experimental and epidemiological assessment is warranted. Possible biological mechanisms and immunoepidemiologic implications are considered.
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