The mortality cost of carbon Bressler, R. Daniel
Nature communications,
07/2021, Letnik:
12, Številka:
1
Journal Article
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Abstract
Many studies project that climate change can cause a significant number of excess deaths. Yet, in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that determine the social cost of carbon (SCC) and ...prescribe optimal climate policy, human mortality impacts are limited and not updated to the latest scientific understanding. This study extends the DICE-2016 IAM to explicitly include temperature-related mortality impacts by estimating a climate-mortality damage function. We introduce a metric, the mortality cost of carbon (MCC), that estimates the number of deaths caused by the emissions of one additional metric ton of CO2. In the baseline emissions scenario, the 2020 MCC is 2.26 × 10
‒4
low to high estimate −1.71× 10
‒4
to 6.78 × 10
‒4
excess deaths per metric ton of 2020 emissions. This implies that adding 4,434 metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020—equivalent to the lifetime emissions of 3.5 average Americans—causes one excess death globally in expectation between 2020-2100. Incorporating mortality costs increases the 2020 SCC from $37 to $258 −$69 to $545 per metric ton in the baseline emissions scenario. Optimal climate policy changes from gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 to full decarbonization by 2050 when mortality is considered.
While the European Union (EU) professes a commitment to liberal democracy, in recent years it has allowed some member governments to backslide toward competitive authoritarianism. The EU has become ...trapped in an 'authoritarian equilibrium' underpinned by three factors. First, the EU's half-baked system of party politics and its ingrained reluctance to interfere in the domestic politics of its member states help shield national autocrats from EU intervention. Second, funding and investment from the EU helps sustain these regimes. Third, the free movement of persons in the EU facilitates the exit of dissatisfied citizens, which depletes the opposition and generates remittances, thereby helping these regimes endure. While more fully developed democratic federations have the capacity to eventually steer autocratic member states back toward democracy, the EU appears to be stuck in an autocracy trap.
The mangrove forests of Southeast Asia are highly biodiverse and provide multiple ecosystem services upon which millions of people depend. Mangroves enhance fisheries and coastal protection, and ...store among the highest densities of carbon of any ecosystem globally. Mangrove forests have experienced extensive deforestation owing to global demand for commodities, and previous studies have identified the expansion of aquaculture as largely responsible. The proportional conversion of mangroves to different land use types has not been systematically quantified across Southeast Asia, however, particularly in recent years. In this study we apply a combined geographic information system and remote sensing method to quantify the key proximate drivers (i.e., replacement land uses) of mangrove deforestation in Southeast Asia between 2000 and 2012. Mangrove forests were lost at an average rate of 0.18% per year, which is lower than previously published estimates. In total, more than 100,000 ha of mangroves were removed during the study period, with aquaculture accounting for 30% of this total forest change. The rapid expansion of rice agriculture in Myanmar, and the sustained conversion of mangroves to oil palm plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia, are identified as additional increasing and under-recognized threats to mangrove ecosystems. Our study highlights frontiers of mangrove deforestation in the border states of Myanmar, on Borneo, and in Indonesian Papua. To implement policies that conserve mangrove forests across Southeast Asia, it is essential to consider the national and subnational variation in the land uses that follow deforestation.
Hybridization and gene flow between species appears to be common. Even though it is clear that hybridization is widespread across all surveyed taxonomic groups, the magnitude and consequences of ...introgression are still largely unknown. Thus it is crucial to develop the statistical machinery required to uncover which genomic regions have recently acquired haplotypes via introgression from a sister population. We developed a novel machine learning framework, called FILET (Finding Introgressed Loci via Extra-Trees) capable of revealing genomic introgression with far greater power than competing methods. FILET works by combining information from a number of population genetic summary statistics, including several new statistics that we introduce, that capture patterns of variation across two populations. We show that FILET is able to identify loci that have experienced gene flow between related species with high accuracy, and in most situations can correctly infer which population was the donor and which was the recipient. Here we describe a data set of outbred diploid Drosophila sechellia genomes, and combine them with data from D. simulans to examine recent introgression between these species using FILET. Although we find that these populations may have split more recently than previously appreciated, FILET confirms that there has indeed been appreciable recent introgression (some of which might have been adaptive) between these species, and reveals that this gene flow is primarily in the direction of D. simulans to D. sechellia.
An intriguing aspect of social foraging behaviour is that large groups are often no better at capturing prey than are small groups, a pattern that has been attributed to diminished cooperation (i.e., ...free riding) in large groups. Although this suggests the formation of large groups is unrelated to prey capture, little is known about cooperation in large groups that hunt hard-to-catch prey. Here, we used direct observations of Yellowstone wolves (Canis lupus) hunting their most formidable prey, bison (Bison bison), to test the hypothesis that large groups are more cooperative when hunting difficult prey. We quantified the relationship between capture success and wolf group size, and compared it to previously reported results for Yellowstone wolves hunting elk (Cervus elaphus), a prey that was, on average, 3 times easier to capture than bison. Whereas improvement in elk capture success levelled off at 2-6 wolves, bison capture success levelled off at 9-13 wolves with evidence that it continued to increase beyond 13 wolves. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that hunters in large groups are more cooperative when hunting more formidable prey. Improved ability to capture formidable prey could therefore promote the formation and maintenance of large predator groups, particularly among predators that specialize on such prey.
l-Ascorbic acid (Asc) is the most abundant water-soluble antioxidant in plants. It serves as a cofactor for enzymes involved in photosynthesis, hormone biosynthesis, and the regeneration of ...antioxidants such as α-tocopherol. Once used, Asc can be recycled by several different mechanisms. The short-lived monodehydroascorbate (MDHA) radical, produced following Asc oxidation, can be recycled following reduction by ferredoxin or monodehydroascorbate reductase (MDAR). MDHA can also undergo disproportionation into dehydroascorbate (DHA) and Asc. DHA can be recycled into Asc by dehydroascorbate reductase (DHAR) before it undergoes irrevocable hydrolysis. Through its recycling, Asc content and its redox state are maintained, which is critical under conditions of high demand, for example during high light or other stress conditions that increase reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. This review provides an overview of research in the last decade revealing the role that Asc recycling plays during germination, growth, and reproduction, as well as in response to environmental stress. These findings highlight the importance of DHAR- and MDAR-mediated mechanisms of Asc recycling in maintaining ROS at non-damaging levels while modulating ROS signalling function.
A series of six luminescent two-coordinate Cu(I) complexes were investigated bearing nonconventional N-heterocyclic carbene ligands, monoamido-aminocarbene (MAC*) and diamidocarbene (DAC*), along ...with carbazolyl (Cz) as well as mono- and dicyano-substituted Cz derivatives. The emission color can be systematically varied over 270 nm, from violet to red, through proper choice of the acceptor (carbene) and donor (carbazolyl) groups. The compounds exhibit photoluminescent quantum efficiencies up to 100% in fluid solution and polystyrene films with short decay lifetimes (τ ≈ 1 μs). The radiative rate constants for the Cu(I) complexes (k r = 105–106 s–1) are comparable to state of the art phosphorescent emitters with noble metals such as Ir and Pt. All complexes show strong solvatochromism due to the large dipole moment of the ground states and the transition dipole moment that is in the opposite direction. Temperature-dependent studies of (MAC*)Cu(Cz) reveal a small energy separation between the lowest singlet and triplet states (ΔE S1–T1 = 500 cm–1) and an exceptionally large zero-field splitting (ZFS = 85 cm–1). Organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) fabricated with (MAC*)Cu(Cz) as a green emissive dopant have high external quantum efficiencies (EQE = 19.4%) and brightness of 54 000 cd/m2 with modest roll-off at high currents. The complex can also serve as a neat emissive layer to make highly efficient OLEDs (EQE = 16.3%).
Recent advances in the ytterbium doping of CsPbX3 (X = Cl or Cl/Br) nanocrystals have presented exciting new opportunities for their application as downconverters in solar-energy-conversion ...technologies. Here, we describe a hot-injection synthesis of Yb3+:CsPbCl3 nanocrystals that reproducibly yields sensitized Yb3+ 2F5/2 → 2F7/2 luminescence with near-infrared photoluminescence quantum yields (PLQYs) well over 100% and almost no excitonic luminescence. Near-infrared PLQYs of 170% have been measured. Through a combination of synthesis, variable-temperature photoluminescence spectroscopy, and transient-absorption and time-resolved photoluminescence spectroscopies, we show that the formation of shallow Yb3+-induced defects play a critical role in facilitating a picosecond nonradiative energy-transfer process that de-excites the photoexcited nanocrystal and simultaneously excites two Yb3+ dopant ions, i.e., quantum cutting. Energy transfer is very efficient at all temperatures between 5 K and room temperature but only grows more efficient as the temperature is elevated in this range. Our results provide insights into the microscopic mechanism behind the extremely efficient sensitization of Yb3+ luminescence in CsPbX3 nanocrystals, with ramifications for future applications of high-efficiency spectral-conversion nanomaterials in solar technologies.
This study empirically investigates consumer perceptions of remanufactured consumer products in closed‐loop supply chains. A multi‐study approach led to increasing levels of measure refinement and ...facilitated examination of various assumptions researchers have made about the consumer market for remanufactured products. Based in part on the measure building studies, an experimental study examined remanufactured product perceptions from a national panel of consumers. The consumers responded to remanufactured product descriptions that manipulated price discount and brand equity. The results indicate that discounting had a consistently positive, linear effect on remanufactured product attractiveness. Curiously, the brand equity manipulation proved less important to consumers than specific remanufactured product quality perceptions. The results also show that green consumers and consumers who consider remanufactured products green typically found remanufactured products significantly more attractive. Finally, the findings introduce the concept of negative attribute perceptions, such as disgust, that had a significantly detrimental effect on remanufactured product attractiveness.
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