Efforts to improve the prediction accuracy of high resolution (1-10 km) surface precipitation distribution and variability are of vital importance to local aspects of air pollution, wet deposition, ...and regional climate. However, precipitation biases and errors can occur at these spatial scales due to uncertainties in initial meteorological conditions and/or grid-scale cloud microphysics schemes. In particular, it is still unclear to what extent a subgrid-scale convection scheme could be modified to bring in scale-awareness for improving high-resolution short-term precipitation forecasts in the WRF model. To address these issues, we introduced scale-aware parameterized cloud dynamics for high-resolution forecasts by making several changes to the Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model. These changes include subgrid-scale cloud-radiation interactions, a dynamic adjustment timescale, impacts of cloud updraft mass fluxes on grid-scale vertical velocity, and lifting condensation level-based entrainment methodology that includes scale dependency. A series of 48-hour retrospective forecasts using a combination of three treatments of convection (KF, updated KF, and the use of no cumulus parameterization), two cloud microphysics schemes and two types of initial condition datasets were performed over the U.S. southern Great Plains on 9- and 3-km grid spacings during the summers of 2002 and 2010. Results indicate that (1) the source of initial conditions play a key role in high-resolution precipitation forecasting, and (2) our updated KF scheme greatly alleviates the excessive precipitation at 9-km grid spacing and improves results at 3-km grid spacing as well. Overall, we found that the updated KF scheme incorporated into a high-resolution model does provide better forecasts for precipitation location and intensity.
We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet configurations, we focus our ...simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as that of modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2 = 400 ppmv and CH4 = 1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans: one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells, as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, and the other a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, first via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations, while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward, making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equatorward and no high-latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The data sets from this study are open source and publicly available.
Present‐day Venus is an inhospitable place with surface temperatures approaching 750 K and an atmosphere 90 times as thick as Earth's. Billions of years ago the picture may have been very different. ...We have created a suite of 3‐D climate simulations using topographic data from the Magellan mission, solar spectral irradiance estimates for 2.9 and 0.715 Gya, present‐day Venus orbital parameters, an ocean volume consistent with current theory, and an atmospheric composition estimated for early Venus. Using these parameters we find that such a world could have had moderate temperatures if Venus had a prograde rotation period slower than ~16 Earth days, despite an incident solar flux 46–70% higher than Earth receives. At its current rotation period, Venus's climate could have remained habitable until at least 0.715 Gya. These results demonstrate the role rotation and topography play in understanding the climatic history of Venus‐like exoplanets discovered in the present epoch.
Key Points
Venus may have had a climate with liquid water on its surface for approximately two billion years
The rotation rate and topography of Venus play crucial roles in its surface temperature and moisture
Young Venus‐like exoplanets may be considered candidates for the search for life beyond Earth
The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b ...could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamical regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A freshwater ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger versus smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable by using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, for example, in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.
One popular view of Venus' climate history describes a world that has spent much of its life with surface liquid water, plate tectonics, and a stable temperate climate. Part of the basis for this ...optimistic scenario is the high deuterium to hydrogen ratio from the Pioneer Venus mission that was interpreted to imply Venus had a shallow ocean's worth of water throughout much of its history. Another view is that Venus had a long‐lived (∼100 million years) primordial magma ocean with a CO2 and steam atmosphere. Venus' long‐lived steam atmosphere would sufficient time to dissociate most of the water vapor, allow significant hydrogen escape, and oxidize the magma ocean. A third scenario is that Venus had surface water and habitable conditions early in its history for a short period of time (<1 Gyr), but that a moist/runaway greenhouse took effect because of a gradually warming Sun, leaving the planet desiccated ever since. Using a general circulation model, we demonstrate the viability of the first scenario using the few observational constraints available. We further speculate that large igneous provinces and the global resurfacing hundreds of millions of years ago played key roles in ending the clement period in its history and presenting the Venus we see today. The results have implications for what astronomers term “the habitable zone,” and if Venus‐like exoplanets exist with clement conditions akin to modern Earth, we propose to place them in what we term the “optimistic Venus zone.”
Plain Language Summary
We have little data on our neighbor Venus to help us understand its climate history. Yet Earth and Venus are sister worlds: They initially formed close to one another and have nearly the same mass and radius. Despite the differences in their current atmospheres and surface temperatures, they likely have similar bulk compositions, making comparison between them extremely valuable for illuminating their distinct climate histories. We analyze our present data on Venus alongside knowledge about Earth's climate history to make a number of exciting claims. Evaluating several snapshots in time over the past 4+ billion years, we show that Venus could have sustained liquid water and moderate temperatures for most of this period. Cloud feedbacks from a slowly rotating world with surface liquid water reservoirs were the keys to keeping the planet clement. Contrast this with its current surface temperature of 450° and an atmosphere dominated by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Our results demonstrate that it was not the gradual warming of the Sun over the eons that contributed to Venus present hothouse state. Rather, we speculate that large igneous provinces and the global resurfacing hundreds of millions of years ago played key roles in ending the clement period in its history.
Key Points
Venus could have had habitable conditions for nearly 3 billion years
Surface liquid water is required for any habitable scenario
Solar insolation through time is not a crucial factor if a carbonate‐silicate cycle is in action
Planetary rotation rate has a significant effect on atmospheric circulation, where the strength of the Coriolis effect in part determines the efficiency of latitudinal heat transport, altering cloud ...distributions, surface temperatures, and precipitation patterns. In this study, we use the ROCKE-3D dynamic ocean general circulation model to study the effects of slow rotations and increased insolations on the "fractional habitability" and silicate weathering rate of an Earth-like world. Defining the fractional habitability fh to be the percentage of a planet's surface that falls in the 0 ≤ T ≤ 100 °C temperature regime, we find a moderate increase in fh with a 10% and 20% increase in insolation and a possible maximum in fh at sidereal day lengths between 8 and 32 times that of the modern Earth. By tracking precipitation and runoff, we further determine that there is a rotational regime centered on a 4 day period in which the silicate weathering rate is maximized and is particularly strongly peaked at higher overall insolations. Because of weathering's integral role in the long-term carbonate-silicate cycle, we suggest that climate stability may be strongly affected by the anticipated rotational evolution of temperate terrestrial-type worlds and should be considered a major factor in their study. In light of our results, we argue that planetary rotation period is an important factor to consider when determining the habitability of terrestrial worlds.
High obliquity planets represent potentially extreme limits of terrestrial climate, as they exhibit large seasonality, a reversed annual-mean pole-to-equator gradient of stellar heating, and novel ...cryospheres. A suite of 3D global climate model simulations is performed for low and high obliquity planets with various stellar fluxes, CO2 concentrations, and initial conditions to explore the propensity for high obliquity climates to undergo global glaciation. We also simulate planets with thick CO2 or H2 atmospheres, such as those expected to develop near or beyond the outer edge of the habitable zone. We show that high obliquity planets are hotter than their low obliquity counterparts due to ice-albedo feedbacks for cold climates, and water vapor in warm climates. We suggest that the water vapor greenhouse trapping is greater on high obliquity bodies for a given global-mean temperature due to the different dynamical regimes that occur between the two states. While equatorial ice belts are stable at high obliquity in some climate regimes, it is substantially harder to achieve global glaciation than for a low obliquity planet. Temperate polar conditions can be present at high obliquity at forcings for which low obliquity planets would be in a hard snowball state. Furthermore, open ocean can persist even in the winter hemisphere and when global-mean temperatures are well below freezing. However, the influence of obliquity diminishes for dense atmospheres, in agreement with calculations from 1D energy balance models.
Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) or the Giant Magellan Telescope (GMT) may soon be ...able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M-dwarf system TRAPPIST-1, which has seven known transiting planets for which transit timing variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ∼66 % of the Earth's incident radiation and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is, therefore, one of the prime targets for the JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global climate models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to intercompare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e, but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed of modern-Earth and pure-CO2 atmospheres and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM); however, this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well.
H2O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the ...near future. The detectability of H2O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H2O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapor mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H2O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H2O detection.
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