This paper studies the temporal consistency of health care expenditures in a large state Medicaid program. Predictive machine learning models were used to forecast the expenditures, especially for ...the high-cost, high-need (HCHN) patients.
We systematically tests temporal correlation of patient-level health care expenditures in both the short and long terms. The results suggest that medical expenditures are significantly correlated over multiple periods. Our work demonstrates a prevalent and strong temporal correlation and shows promise for predicting future health care expenditures using machine learning. Temporal correlation is stronger in HCHN patients and their expenditures can be better predicted. Including more past periods is beneficial for better predictive performance.
This study shows that there is significant temporal correlation in health care expenditures. Machine learning models can help to accurately forecast the expenditures. These results could advance the field toward precise preventive care to lower overall health care costs and deliver care more efficiently.
Location and environmental social determinants of health are increasingly important factors in both an individual's health and the monitoring of community-level public health issues.
We aimed to ...measure the extent to which location obfuscation techniques, designed to protect an individual's privacy, can unintentionally shift geographical coordinates into neighborhoods with significantly different socioeconomic demographics, which limits the precision of findings for public health stakeholders.
Point obfuscation techniques intentionally blur geographic coordinates to conceal the original location. The pinwheel obfuscation method is an existing technique in which a point is moved along a pinwheel-like path given a randomly chosen angle and a maximum radius; we evaluate the impact of this technique using 2 data sets by comparing the demographics of the original point and the resulting shifted point by cross-referencing data from the United States Census Bureau.
Using poverty measures showed that points from regions of low poverty may be shifted to regions of high poverty; similarly, points in regions with high poverty may be shifted into regions of low poverty. We varied the maximum allowable obfuscation radius; the mean difference in poverty rate before and after obfuscation ranged from 6.5% to 11.7%. Additionally, obfuscation inadvertently caused false hot spots for deaths by suicide in Cook County, Illinois.
Privacy concerns require patient locations to be imprecise to protect against risk of identification; precision public health requires accuracy. We propose a modified obfuscation technique that is constrained to generate a new point within a specified census-designated region to preserve both privacy and analytical accuracy by avoiding demographic shifts.
High utilizers receive great attention in health care research because they have a largely disproportionate spending. Existing analyses usually identify high utilizers with an empirical threshold on ...the number of health care visits or associated expenditures. However, such count-and-cost based criteria might not be best for identifying impactable high utilizers.
We propose an approach to identify impactable high utilizers using residuals from regression-based health care utilization risk adjustment models to analyze the variations in health care expenditures. We develop linear and tree-based models to best adjust per-member per-month health care cost by clinical and socioeconomic risk factors using a large administrative claims dataset from a state public insurance program.
The risk adjustment models identify a group of patients with high residuals whose demographics and categorization of comorbidities are similar to other patients but who have a significant amount of unexplained health care utilization. Deeper analysis of the essential hypertension cohort and chronic kidney disease cohort shows these variations in expenditures could be within individual ICD-9-CM codes and from different mixtures of ICD-9-CM codes. Additionally, correlation analysis with 3M™ Potentially Preventable Events (PPE) software shows that a portion of this utilization may be preventable. In addition, the high utilizers persist from year to year.
After risk adjustment, patients with higher than expected expenditures (high residuals) are associated with more potentially preventable events. These residuals are temporally consistent and hence may be useful in identifying and intervening impactable high utilizers.
Studies of viral suppression on first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV) in Haiti are limited, particularly among PLHIV outside of the Ouest ...department, where the capital Port-au-Prince is located. This study described the prevalence and risk factors for delayed viral suppression among PLHIV in all geographic departments of Haiti between 2013 and 2017. Individuals who received viral load testing 3 to 12 months after ART initiation were included. Data on demographics and clinical care were obtained from the Haitian Active Longitudinal Tracking of HIV database. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to predict delayed viral suppression, defined as a viral load ≥1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL after at least 3 months on ART. Viral load test results were available for 3,368 PLHIV newly-initiated on ART. Prevalence of delayed viral suppression was 40%, which is slightly higher than previous estimates in Haiti. In the multivariable analysis, delayed viral suppression was significantly associated with younger age, receiving of care in the Ouest department, treatment with lamivudine (3TC), zidovudine (AZT), and nevirapine (NVP) combined ART regimen, and CD4 counts below 200 cells/mm3. In conclusion, this study was the first to describe and compare differences in delayed viral suppression among PLHIV by geographic department in Haiti. We identified populations to whom public health interventions, such as more frequent viral load testing, drug resistance testing, and ART adherence counseling should be targeted.
The factors associated with chronic opioid therapy (COT) in patients with HIV is understudied. Using Medicaid data (2002-2009), this retrospective cohort study examines COT in beneficiaries with HIV ...who initiated standard combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART). We used generalized estimating equations on logistic regression models with backward selection to identify significant predictors of COT initiation. COT was initiated among 1014 out of 9615 beneficiaries with HIV (male: 10.4%; female: 10.7%). Those with older age, any malignancy, Hepatitis C infection, back pain, arthritis, neuropathy pain, substance use disorder, polypharmacy, (use of) benzodiazepines, gabapentinoids, antidepressants, and prior opioid therapies were positively associated with COT. In sex-stratified analyses, multiple predictors were shared between male and female beneficiaries; however, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, liver disease, any malignancy, and antipsychotic therapy were unique to female beneficiaries. Comorbidities and polypharmacy were important predictors of COT in Medicaid beneficiaries with HIV who initiated cART.
•The odds of opioid-involved deaths at home were 37% higher during stay-at-home orders.•The displacement of heroin by fentanyl was largely uninterrupted during this period.•Open data from the medical ...examiner is a rich source of specific death locations.•Repeat locations of fatal overdoses could be suitable for naloxone kit placement.
Stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic decreased population mobility to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. We empirically tested the hypothesis that this public health measure was associated with a higher likelihood of opioid- and stimulant-involved deaths occurring in homes located in Cook County, Illinois.
The stay-at-home period was from March 21, 2020 to May 30, 2020. We analyzed overdose data from the Cook County Medical Examiner's Office using a death location description from case investigations categorized as home, medical, motel, scene, and other. Two groups of decedents were defined as either having an opioid or stimulant listed in the primary cause of death field. We modeled a weekly time series to detect changes in deaths (number) and trends during segmented time periods. Chi-square or Fisher's exact and adjusted logistic regression was used for testing the differences between the stay-at-home and a 13-week preceding period.
There were 4,169 and 2,012 opioid- and stimulant-involved deaths, respectively, from 2018 to 2020. Both groups were demographically similar: 75% male, 52% White, and aged 45 years (mean). In the 13 weeks before stay-at-home orders, 51% of opioid-involved deaths occurred in homes, which increased to 59% (p<0.0001) during the 10 weeks of the order and decreased back to 51% in the 18 weeks after the order expired. For stimulant-involved deaths, 51% were residential immediately before the orders, with a nonsignificant increase to 52% during the stay-at-home period. Before the pandemic, there were 20 deaths/week, increasing to 37 deaths/week (p<0.0001) during stay-at-home enactment. Deaths involving fentanyl among the opioid-involved group increased from 76% to 89%, whereas those involving heroin decreased from 55% to 37%. The adjusted OR for opioid-involved fatal overdoses occurring at home during this period compared with that occurring the 13 weeks before was 1.37 (95% CI=1.05, 1.79).
The likelihood of a death occurring at home, especially for people using opioids, increased during the stay-at-home order period. Findings have implications for mitigating overdose risks during social isolation.
Abstract Purpose National guidelines for alcohol screening and brief interventions advise practitioners to consider age, drinking frequency, and context to identify at-risk youth. The purpose of this ...study was to identify the contextual risk and protective factors in high school-aged adolescents associated with future driving after drinking (Drinking Under the Influence DUI at age 21) by race/ethnicity. Methods Data included 10,271 adolescents (67% white, 12% Hispanic, 16% black, 3.6% Asian; 49% Male) who participated in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Waves I, II, and III) from 1995 to 2001. A lagged panel design and survey logistic regression was used to examine the association between multiple contextual factors (e.g., demographics, parents, peers, social context) during adolescence and self-reported DUI in young adulthood. Results As expected, the likelihood of DUI was higher among whites followed by Hispanics, Asians, and blacks in all models. Perception of easy home access to alcohol increased risk for future DUI for whites (OR: 1.25 CI: 1.04–1.49), Hispanics (OR: 2.02 CI: 1.29–3.16), and Asians (OR: 1.90 CI: 1.13–3.22), but not for black youth. Drinking frequency and prior DUI were not risk factors for Hispanics. Risk-taking attitudes, marijuana use, and religious affiliation were risk factors for whites only. Conclusions Findings suggest that in addition to screening for drinking behaviors, brief interventions and prevention efforts should assess perceived home access to alcohol and other race-specific factors to reduce alcohol-related injuries and harm.
Abstract
Introduction:
Housing instability is a social determinant of health associated with multiple negative health outcomes including substance use disorders (SUDs). Real-world evidence of housing ...instability is needed to improve translational research on populations with SUDs.
Methods:
We identified evidence of housing instability by leveraging structured diagnosis codes and unstructured clinical data from electronic health records of 20,556 patients from 2017 to 2021. We applied natural language processing with named-entity recognition and pattern matching to unstructured clinical notes with free-text documentation. Additionally, we analyzed semi-structured addresses containing explicit or implicit housing-related labels. We assessed agreement on identification methods by having three experts review of 300 records.
Results:
Diagnostic codes only identified 58.5% of the population identifiable as having housing instability, whereas 41.5% are identifiable from addresses only (7.1%), clinical notes only (30.4%), or both (4.0%). Reviewers unanimously agreed on 79.7% of cases reviewed; a Fleiss’ Kappa score of 0.35 suggested fair agreement yet emphasized the difficulty of analyzing patients having ambiguous housing situations. Among those with poisoning episodes related to stimulants or opioids, diagnosis codes were only able to identify 63.9% of those with housing instability.
Conclusions:
All three data sources yield valid evidence of housing instability; each has their own inherent practical use and limitations. Translational researchers requiring comprehensive real-world evidence of housing instability should optimize and implement use of structured and unstructured data. Understanding the role of housing instability and temporary housing facilities is salient in populations with SUDs.
•Wastewater surveillance detected xylazine in Kentucky in the absence of more traditional signals.•Xylazine was in 62% of daily wastewater samples across multiple site types.•A comprehensive drug ...wastewater surveillance strategy is needed in the U.S.
In the U.S., xylazine, the veterinary non-opioid sedative, has emerged as a major threat to people who use illicitly manufactured fentanyl and other drugs. The aim of this study was to compare wastewater detection of xylazine with other public health and safety surveillance data from 2019 to 2023 in Kentucky.
Wastewater samples from 5 rest areas, 2 truck weigh stations, and 4 wastewater treatment plants were tested for xylazine. Wastewater xylazine positivity rates were compared with xylazine-positive submission rates from the National Forensic Laboratory Information System and Kentucky's fatal overdoses in 6-month periods (Period 1=January–June; Period 2=July–December).
Xylazine was detected in 61.6% (424 of 688) of daily wastewater samples from roadway sites/wastewater treatment plants. For roadways, detection increased from 55% (Period 1, 2021) to 94% (Period 1, 2023), and wastewater treatment plants had an overall detection of 25.8% (n=66 samples, Periods 1 and 2, 2022). Increasing roadway positivity corresponded to trends in National Forensic Laboratory Information System xylazine-positive submission rates: from 0.19 per 1,000 submissions (Period 1, 2019) to 2.9 per 1,000 (Period 2, 2022, latest available). No deaths from xylazine were reported publicly in Kentucky, although this study's authors identified 1–4 deaths (true count suppressed) in the overdose surveillance system, which, in back-of-the-envelope comparisons with other states, is far fewer than expected.
Wastewater signals indicate broad geographic exposure to xylazine in Kentucky, yet health outcomes data suggest otherwise. These findings may inform regional, national, and international efforts to incorporate wastewater-based drug surveillance. Harm-reduction activities along roadways and other suitable locations may be needed.
Background
Very frequent outpatient emergency department (ED) use—so called “superutilization”—at the state level is not well-studied. To address this gap, we examined frequent ED utilization in the ...largest state Medicaid population to date.
Methods
Using Texas Medicaid (the third largest in the USA) claims data, we examined the variability in expenditures, sociodemographics, comorbidities, and persistence across seven levels of ED utilization/year (i.e., 1, 2, 3–4, 5–6, 7–9, 10–14, and ≥ 15 visits). We classified visits into emergent and non-emergent categories using the most recent New York University algorithm.
Results
Thirty-one percent (
n
= 346,651) of Texas Medicaid adult enrollees visited the ED at least once in 2014. Enrollees with ≥ 3 ED visits accounted for 8.5% of all adult patients, 60.4% of the total ED visits, and 62.1% of the total ED expenditures. Extremely frequent ED users (≥ 10 ED visits) represented < 1% of all users but accounted for 15.5% of all ED visits and 17.4% of the total ED costs. The proportions of ED visits classified as non-emergent or emergent, but primary care treatable varied little as ED visits increased. Overall, approximately 13% of ED visits were considered not preventable or avoidable.
Conclusions
The Texas Medicaid population has a substantial burden of chronic disease with only modest increases in substance use and mental health diagnoses as annual visits increase. Understanding the characteristics that lead to frequent ED use is vital to developing strategies and Medicaid policy to reduce high utilization.
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