Extreme climate events often cause population crashes but are difficult to account for in population-dynamic studies. Especially in long-lived animals, density dependence and demography may induce ...lagged impacts of perturbations on population growth. In Arctic ungulates, extreme rain-on-snow and ice-locked pastures have led to severe population crashes, indicating that increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events could destabilize populations. Here, using empirically parameterized, stochastic population models for High-Arctic wild reindeer, we show that more frequent rain-on-snow events actually reduce extinction risk and stabilize population dynamics due to interactions with age structure and density dependence. Extreme rain-on-snow events mainly suppress vital rates of vulnerable ages at high population densities, resulting in a crash and a new population state with resilient ages and reduced population sensitivity to subsequent icy winters. Thus, observed responses to single extreme events are poor predictors of population dynamics and persistence because internal density-dependent feedbacks act as a buffer against more frequent events.
Meaningful comparison of variation in quantitative trait requires controlling for both the dimension of the varying entity and the dimension of the factor generating variation. Although the ...coefficient of variation (CV; standard deviation divided by the mean) is often used to measure and compare variation of quantitative traits, it only accounts for the dimension of the former, and its use for comparing variation may sometimes be inappropriate. Here, we discuss the use of the CV to compare measures of evolvability and phenotypic plasticity, two variational properties of quantitative traits. Using a dimensional analysis, we show that contrary to evolvability, phenotypic plasticity cannot be meaningfully compared across traits and environments by mean‐scaling trait variation. We further emphasize the need of remaining cognizant of the dimensions of the traits and the relationship between mean and standard deviation when comparing CVs, even when the scales on which traits are expressed allow meaningful calculation of the CV.
Many animal populations are subject to hunting or fishing in the wild. Detailed knowledge of demographic parameters (e.g. survival, reproduction) and temporal dynamics of such populations is crucial ...for sustainable management. Despite their relevance for management decisions, structure and size of exploited populations are often not known, and data limited. Recently, joint analysis of different types of demographic data, such as population counts, reproductive data and capture–mark–recapture data, within integrated population models (IPMs) has gained much popularity as it may allow estimating population size and structure, as well as key demographic rates, while fully accounting for uncertainty. IPMs built so far for exploited populations have typically been built as age‐structured population models. However, the age of harvested individuals is usually difficult and/or costly to assess and therefore often not available. Here, we introduce an IPM structured by body size classes, which allows making efficient use of data commonly available in exploited populations for which accurate information on age is often missing. The model jointly analyzes size‐at‐harvest data, capture–mark–recapture–recovery data and reproduction data from necropsies, and we illustrate its applicability in a case study involving heavily hunted wild boar. This species has increased in abundance over the last decades despite intense harvest, and the IPM analysis provides insights into the roles of natural mortality, body growth, maturation schedules and reproductive output in compensating for the loss of individuals to hunting. Early maturation and high reproductive output contributed to wild boar population persistence despite a strong hunting pressure. We thus demonstrate the potential of size‐class‐structured IPMs as tools to investigate the dynamics of exploited populations with limited information on age, and highlight both the applicability of this framework to other species and its potential for follow‐up analyses highly relevant to management.
Pulsed resources influence the demography and evolution of consumer populations and, by cascading effect, the dynamics of the entire community. Mast seeding provides a case study for exploring the ...evolution of life history traits of consumers in fluctuating environments. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) population dynamics is related to seed availability (acorns/beechnuts). From a long-term monitoring of two populations subjected to markedly different environmental contexts (i.e., both low vs. high frequency of pulsed resources and low vs. high hunting pressure in Italy and in France, respectively), we assessed how pulsed resources shape the reproductive output of females. Using path analyses, we showed that in both populations, abundant seed availability increases body mass and both the absolute and the relative (to body mass) allocation to reproduction through higher fertility. In the Italian population, females equally relied on past and current resources for reproduction and ranked at an intermediate position along the capital-income continuum of breeding tactics. In contrast, in the French population, females relied on current more than past resources and ranked closer to the income end of the continuum. In the French population, one-year old females born in acorn-mast years were heavier and had larger litter size than females born in beechnut-mast years. In addition to the quantity, the type of resources (acorns/beechnuts) has to be accounted for to assess reliably how females allocate resources to reproduction. Our findings highlight a high plasticity in breeding tactics in wild boar females and provide new insight on allocation strategies in fluctuating environments.
Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and ...extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.
Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these ...correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.
We use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species to quantify correlation patterns among five demographic parameters. Results show that positive correlations are ubiquitous and suggest that correlations are more strongly driven by ecological rather than evolutionary factors.
Empirical evidence for declines in fitness components (survival and reproductive performance) with age has recently accumulated in wild populations, highlighting that the process of senescence is ...nearly ubiquitous in the living world. Senescence patterns are highly variable among species and current evolutionary theories of ageing propose that such variation can be accounted for by differences in allocation to growth and reproduction during early life. Here, we compiled 26 studies of free-ranging vertebrate populations that explicitly tested for a trade-off between performance in early and late life. Our review brings overall support for the presence of early-late life trade-offs, suggesting that the limitation of available resources leads individuals to trade somatic maintenance later in life for high allocation to reproduction early in life. We discuss our results in the light of two closely related theories of ageing—the disposable soma and the antagonistic pleiotropy theories—and propose that the principle of energy allocation roots the ageing process in the evolution of life-history strategies. Finally, we outline research topics that should be investigated in future studies, including the importance of natal environmental conditions in the study of trade-offs between early- and late-life performance and the evolution of sex-differences in ageing patterns.
Earlier breeding is one of the strongest responses to global change in birds and is a key factor determining reproductive success. In most studies of climate effects, the focus has been on ...large-scale environmental indices or temperature averaged over large geographical areas, neglecting that animals are affected by the local conditions in their home ranges. In riverine ecosystems, climate change is altering the flow regime, in addition to changes resulting from the increasing demand for renewable and clean hydropower. Together with increasing temperatures, this can lead to shifts in the time window available for successful breeding of birds associated with the riverine habitat. Here, we investigated specifically how the environmental conditions at the territory level influence timing of breeding in a passerine bird with an aquatic lifestyle, the white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus. We relate daily river discharge and other important hydrological parameters, to a long-term dataset of breeding phenology (1978-2015) in a natural river system.
Dippers bred earlier when winter river discharge and groundwater levels in the weeks prior to breeding were high, and when there was little snow in the catchment area. Breeding was also earlier at lower altitudes, although the effect dramatically declined over the period. This suggests that territories at higher altitudes had more open water in winter later in the study period, which permitted early breeding also here. Unexpectedly, the largest effect inducing earlier breeding time was territory river discharge during the winter months and not immediately prior to breeding. The territory river discharge also increased during the study period.
The observed earlier breeding can thus be interpreted as a response to climate change. Measuring environmental variation at the scale of the territory thus provides detailed information about the interactions between organisms and the abiotic environment.
Reproduction requires resources that cannot be allocated to other functions resulting in direct reproductive costs (i.e. trade-offs between current reproduction and subsequent survival/reproduction). ...In wild vertebrates, direct reproductive costs have been widely described in females, but their occurrence in males remains to be explored. To fill this gap, we gathered 53 studies on 48 species testing direct reproductive costs in male vertebrates. We found a trade-off between current reproduction and subsequent performances in 29% of the species and in every clade. As 73% of the studied species are birds, we focused on that clade to investigate whether such trade-offs are associated with (i) levels of paternal care, (ii) polygyny or (iii) pace of life. More precisely for this third question, it is expected that fast species (i.e. short lifespan, early maturity, high fecundity) pay a cost in terms of survival, whereas slow species (with opposite characteristics) do so in terms of fecundity. Our findings tend to support this hypothesis. Finally, we pointed out the potential confounding effects that should be accounted for when investigating reproductive costs in males and strongly encourage the investigation of such costs in more clades to understand to what extent our results are relevant for other vertebrates.
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