Atmospheric moisture transport is the primary component of the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, and its anomalies strongly influence drought and precipitation extremes. We utilised the full ...geographical and temporal spectrum of the ERA-5 reanalysis data and extreme value theory to identify regions where the atmospheric moisture transport, quantified as local integrated moisture vertical transport (IVT), influences daily extreme precipitation, and where this influence has a relevant dynamic component, which may alter the dependency between IVT and extreme precipitation as temperatures increase with climate change. We showed that this dependency is weak or negligible in tropical regions and strong but nonuniform in extratropical regions. Its influence is much greater in areas where the main moisture transport mechanisms occur, namely, atmospheric rivers, low-level jets, and tropical cyclones. The dynamic component of IVT, linked to wind, is highly consequential in regions with landfalling atmospheric rivers, landfalling tropical cyclones, or moisture-transporting low-level jets.
An analysis of concurrent extreme events of continental precipitation and Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) is crucial to our understanding of the role of the major global mechanisms of ...atmospheric moisture transport, including that of the landfalling Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) in extratropical regions. For this purpose, gridded data on CPC precipitation and ERA-5 IVT at a spatial resolution of 0.5° were used to analyse these concurrent events, covering the period from Winter 1980/1981 to Autumn 2017. For each season, and for each point with more than 400 non-dry days, several copula models were fitted to model the joint distribution function of the two variables. At each of the analysed points, the best copula model was used to estimate the probability of a concurrent extreme. At the same time, within the sample of observed concurrent extremes, the proportion of days with landfalling ARs was calculated for the whole period and for two 15-year sub-periods, one earlier period and one more recent (warmer) period. Three metrics based on copulas were used to analyse carefully the influence of IVT on extreme precipitation in the main regions of occurrence of AR landfall. The results show that the probability of occurrence of concurrent extremes is strongly conditioned by the dynamic component of the IVT, the wind. The occurrence of landfalling ARs accounts for most of the concurrent extreme days of IVT and continental precipitation, with percentages of concurrent extreme days close to 90% in some seasons in almost all the known regions of maximum occurrence of landfalling ARs, and with percentages greater than 75% downwind of AR landfall regions. This coincidence was lower in tropical regions, and in monsoonal areas in particular, with percentages of less than 50%. With a few exceptions, the role of landfalling ARs as drivers of concurrent extremes of IVT and continental precipitation tends to show a decrease in recent (warmer) periods. For almost all the landfalling AR regions with high or very high probabilities of achieving a concurrent extreme, there is a general trend towards a lower influence of IVT on extreme continental precipitation in recent (warmer) periods.
•Concurrent extremes of moisture transport and precipitation were analysed via copulas.•Maxima of concurrence are found on coasts mostly affected by atmospheric rivers.•Influence of atmospheric rivers on this concurrence decreased in recent periods.
Abstract In this article, we focus on studying the nexus between moisture transport deficit and drought occurrence in nine key regions across the world where the magnitude of meteorological drought ...is projected to increase from 1850 to 2100 under a high anthropogenic emission scenario. These regions are central America, southwestern South America, northern Brazil, the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, the western Mediterranean, southern Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and southwestern Australia. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART, we identify the specific moisture sources of the regions (the own region, the nearby continental source and the oceanic sources) and obtain their contributions to the precipitation in the regions for the period 1980–2018. For each region and specific moisture source, the conditional probability of meteorological drought occurrence given an equivalent contribution deficit from the source is estimated using copula models, a statistical methodology that allows us to capture complex relationships between variables. We identify the dominant moisture source in each region, which is the source for which the contribution deficit maximises drought probability. A variety of cases are found: in three regions, the dominant source is the region itself, in one region, it is the nearby terrestrial source, and in five regions, it is an oceanic source. In general, contribution deficits from specific moisture sources are associated with only slightly greater drought probabilities than those from major global moisture sources. We also reveal that the source that contributes the most to precipitation in a given region is not necessarily the dominant source of drought in the region. These results highlight the importance of understanding the role of dominant moisture sources and moisture transport deficits on meteorological drought occurrence at a regional scale.
Previous studies indicate atmospheric instability, total column water vapor, and horizontal moisture transport as major drivers of precipitation extremes, however little is known about how the ...combination of these drivers affects precipitation extremes across the world. Here, using daily data from the ERA-5 reanalysis spanning the period 1981–2020, we identified the combinations of extreme values for these three major drivers that enhance the probability of daily precipitation extremes on a global scale. Our findings show that extreme daily precipitation is practically impossible without any of these drivers being extreme. Atmospheric instability is the primary driver of precipitation extremes, meaning that, among the three cases of the drivers being extreme in isolation, extreme atmospheric instability is associated with the highest average probability of extreme precipitation over landmasses (29% during December–February, 32% during June–August). When considering the combination of two drivers being simultaneously extreme, joint extremes of atmospheric instability and total column water vapor (and non-extreme horizontal moisture transport) lead to the highest probability of extreme precipitation (69% during December–February, 70% during June–August), which is similar to the probability under three drivers in extreme conditions (67% and 72%). Our results point to a latitudinal variation of the combination that leads to the highest probability of extreme precipitation. In subtropics, the case of the three extreme drivers dominates, whereas in extratropical regions, the dominant combination is that of the joint extremes of atmospheric instability and total column water vapor (and non-extreme horizontal moisture transport). By providing information on the most important drivers of precipitation extremes worldwide, these results can serve as a basis for evaluating precipitation extremes in climate models and understanding projected changes, which is vital for developing robust risk assessments.
•The dominant combination of three drivers of extreme precipitation is analyzed.•Extreme values of at least one driver are needed for extreme precipitation.•One combination of only two extreme drivers is the most relevant in many regions.•The most influential combination varies according to latitude.
The primary objective of this study was to identify the existence of chronic disease multimorbidity patterns in the primary care population, describing their clinical components and analysing how ...these patterns change and evolve over time both in women and men. The secondary objective of this study was to generate evidence regarding the pathophysiological processes underlying multimorbidity and to understand the interactions and synergies among the various diseases.
This observational, retrospective, multicentre study utilised information from the electronic medical records of 19 primary care centres from 2008. To identify multimorbidity patterns, an exploratory factor analysis was carried out based on the tetra-choric correlations between the diagnostic information of 275,682 patients who were over 14 years of age. The analysis was stratified by age group and sex.
Multimorbidity was found in all age groups, and its prevalence ranged from 13% in the 15 to 44 year age group to 67% in those 65 years of age or older. Goodness-of-fit indicators revealed sample values between 0.50 and 0.71. We identified five patterns of multimorbidity: cardio-metabolic, psychiatric-substance abuse, mechanical-obesity-thyroidal, psychogeriatric and depressive. Some of these patterns were found to evolve with age, and there were differences between men and women.
Non-random associations between chronic diseases result in clinically consistent multimorbidity patterns affecting a significant proportion of the population. Underlying pathophysiological phenomena were observed upon which action can be taken both from a clinical, individual-level perspective and from a public health or population-level perspective.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for health care systems globally. This study aimed to explore the presence of mental illness in a Spanish cohort of COVID-19-infected ...population and to evaluate the association between the presence of specific mental health conditions and the risk of death and hospitalization. This is a retrospective cohort study including all individuals with confirmed infection by SARS-CoV-2 from the PRECOVID (Prediction in COVID-19) Study (Aragon, Spain). Mental health illness was defined as the presence of schizophrenia and other psychotic disorders, anxiety, cognitive disorders, depression and mood disorders, substance abuse, and personality and eating disorders. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the likelihood of 30-day all-cause mortality and COVID-19 related hospitalization based on baseline demographic and clinical variables, including the presence of specific mental conditions, by gender. We included 144,957 individuals with confirmed COVID-19 from the PRECOVID Study (Aragon, Spain). The most frequent diagnosis in this cohort was anxiety. However, some differences were observed by sex: substance abuse, personality disorders and schizophrenia were more frequently diagnosed in men, while eating disorders, depression and mood, anxiety and cognitive disorders were more common among women. The presence of mental illness, specifically schizophrenia spectrum and cognitive disorders in men, and depression and mood disorders, substance abuse, anxiety and cognitive and personality disorders in women, increased the risk of mortality or hospitalization after COVID-19, in addition to other well-known risk factors such as age, morbidity and treatment burden. Identifying vulnerable patient profiles at risk of serious outcomes after COVID-19 based on their mental health status will be crucial to improve their access to the healthcare system and the establishment of public health prevention measures for future outbreaks.
On the origin of continental precipitation Gimeno, Luis; Drumond, Anita; Nieto, Raquel ...
Geophysical research letters,
July 2010, Letnik:
37, Številka:
13
Journal Article
Recenzirano
About 9 out of 10 liters of water evaporated from the oceans every year precipitates back onto oceans. However, the remaining 10% that get transported to continents play an irreplaceable role feeding ...the land branch of the hydrological cycle. Here we use an objective 3‐D Lagrangian model (FLEXPART) to detect major oceanic moisture source areas and the associated continental regions significantly influenced by each moisture source. Our results reveal a highly asymmetrical supply of oceanic moisture to the continents, with the Northern Atlantic subtropical ocean source impacting the continents considerably more than the large Southern Indian and North Pacific sources. Also, the small Mediterranean Sea and Red Sea basins are important moisture sources for relatively large land areas. The Indian subcontinent receives moisture from six different major oceanic source regions. Future changes in meteorological conditions over the oceanic moisture source regions may have an impact on water availability for many river basins.
The effect of increased populations concentrated in urban areas, coupled with the ongoing threat of climate change, means that society is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the effects of extreme ...precipitation. The study of these events is therefore a key topic in climate research, in their physical basis, in the study of their impacts, and in our adaptation to them. From a meteorological perspective, the main questions are related to the definition of extreme events, changes in their distribution and intensity both globally and regionally, the dependence on large‐scale phenomena including the role of moisture transport, and changes in their behavior due to anthropogenic pressures. In this review article, we address all these points and propose a set of challenges for future research.
This article is categorized under:
Science of Water > Water Extremes
Science of Water > Hydrological Processes
Main oceanic and terrestrial moisture sources and their area of higher moisture contribution are associated with extreme precipitation events. The rounded areas represent the regions where the source of higher contribution changed compared with climatological mean precipitation. The sources defined are North and South Atlantic Ocean (NATL and SATL), North and South Pacific Ocean (NPAC and SPAC), Mediterranean and Red Seas (MED and REDS), Gulf of Mexico (MEXCAR), Indian Ocean and Zanzibar Current and Arabian Sea (IND and ZANAR), Agulhas Current (AGU), South America (SAM), Sahel Region (SAHEL), and South Africa (SAFR).
Objectives
International migration is rapidly increasing worldwide. However, the health status of migrants differs across groups. Information regarding health at arrival and subsequent periodic ...follow‐up in the host country is necessary to develop equitable health care to immigrants. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of the length of stay in Norway and other sociodemographic variables on the prevalence of multimorbidity across immigrant groups (refugees, labour immigrants, family reunification immigrants and education immigrants).
Methods
This is a register‐based study merging data from the National Population Register and the Norwegian Health Economics Administration database. Sociodemographic variables and multimorbidity across the immigrant groups were compared using Persons’ chi‐square test and anova as appropriate. Several binary logistic regression models were conducted.
Results
Multimorbidity was significantly lower among labour immigrants (OR (95% CI) 0.23 (0.21–0.26) and 0.45 (0.40–0.50) for men and women, respectively) and education immigrants (OR (95% CI) 0.40 (0.32–0.50) and 0.38 (0.33–0.43)) and higher among refugees (OR (95% CI) 1.67 (1.57–1.78) and 1.83 (1.75–1.92)), compared to family reunification immigrants. For all groups, multimorbidity doubled after a five‐year stay in Norway. Effect modifications between multimorbidity and sociodemographic characteristics across the different reasons for migration were observed.
Conclusions
Multimorbidity was highest among refugees at arrival but increased rapidly among labour immigrants, especially females. Health providers need to ensure tailor‐made preventive and management strategies that take into account pre‐migration and post‐migration experiences for immigrants in order to address their needs.
Objectifs
La migration internationale augmente rapidement dans le monde entier. Cependant, l’état de santé des migrants diffère selon les groupes. Les informations concernant la santé à l'arrivée et le suivi périodique ultérieur dans le pays d'accueil sont nécessaires pour développer des soins de santé équitable pour les immigrés. L'objectif de cette étude était de déterminer l'impact de la durée de séjour en Norvège et d'autres variables sociodémographiques sur la prévalence de la multimorbidité entre les groupes d'immigrés (réfugiés, travailleurs immigrés, immigrés du regroupement familial et immigrés pour des études).
Méthodes
Cette étude est basée sur le registre, en fusionnant les données du Registre de la Population et de la base de données de l'Administration Norvégienne d'Economie de la Santé. Les variables sociodémographiques et la multimorbidité entre les groupes d'immigrés ont été comparées à l'aide du chi carré de Persons et de l'analyse de la variance, le cas échéant. Plusieurs modèles de régression logistique binaire ont été appliqués.
Résultats
La multimorbidité était significativement plus faible chez les immigrés du travail (OR (IC95%): 0,23 (0,21 à 0,26) et 0,45 (0,40 à 0,50) pour les hommes et les femmes respectivement) et les immigrés pour des études (OR (IC95%): 0,40 (0,32 à 0,50) et 0,38 (0,33 à 0,43)) et plus élevée chez les réfugiés (OR (IC95%): 1,67 (1,57 à 1,78) et 1,83 (1,75 à 1,92)), comparativement aux immigrés de regroupement familial. Pour tous les groupes, la multimorbidité doublait après un séjour de cinq ans en Norvège. Des modifications d'effet entre la multimorbidité et les caractéristiques sociodémographiques selon les différentes raisons de la migration ont été observées.
Conclusions
La multimorbidité était la plus élevée chez les réfugiés à l'arrivée, mais augmentait plus rapidement chez les travailleurs immigrés, en particulier chez les femmes. Les prestataires de santé devraient veiller à des stratégies de prévention et de prise en charge appropriées tenant compte des expériences des immigrés en pré‐ et post‐migration afin de répondre à leurs besoins.
Objetivos
La migración internacional está aumentando rápidamente a nivel mundial. Sin embargo, el estado de salud de los inmigrantes difiere entre grupos. La información sobre el estado de salud en el momento de llegada y un seguimiento periódico en el país de acogida son necesarios para desarrollar una atención sanitaria equitativa para los inmigrantes. El objetivo de este estudio era determinar el impacto de la longitud de la estadía en Noruega y otras variables sociodemográficas sobre la prevalencia de multimorbilidad en diferentes grupos de inmigrantes (refugiados,inmigrantes laborales, inmigrantes por reunificación familiar e inmigrantes por educación).
Métodos
Estudio basado en registros en el que se han juntado datos del Registro Nacional de Población y la base de datos de la Administración de Economía Sanitaria de Noruega. Se compararon las variables sociodemográficas y la multimorbilidad entre los grupos de inmigrantes utilizando el chi cuadrado de Person y la ANOVA. Se realizaron varias regresiones logísticas binarias.
Resultados
La multimorbilidad era significativamente menor entre inmigrantes laborales (OR (IC 95%) 0.23 (0.21‐0.26) y 0.45 (0.40‐0.50) para hombres y mujeres respectivamente) e inmigrantes por educación (OR (IC 95%) 0.40 (0.32‐0.50) y 0.38 (0.33‐0.43)), y mayor entre los refugiados (OR (IC 95%CI) 1.67 (1.57‐1.78) y 1.83 (1.75‐1.92)) al compararlo con los inmigrantes por reunificación familiar. Para todos los grupos, la multimorbilidad se doblaba tras cinco años de permanencia en Noruega. Se observaba un efecto de modificación entre la multimorbilidad y las características sociodemográficas en todas las razones por las cuales se había emigrado.
Conclusiones
La multimorbilidad era mayor entre los refugiados en el momento de llegar pero aumentaba rápidamente entre inmigrantes laborales, especialmente las mujeres. Los proveedores sanitarios deben asegurar estrategias preventivas y de gestión hechas a medida que tengan en cuenta las experiencias pre‐migración y post‐migración de los inmigrantes, con el fin de dar respuesta a sus necesidades.
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There is little doubt about the effects of drought events on human health in the present climate. Projections of climate change indicate an increase in the occurrence and severity of ...droughts in the 21st century in a number of regions, thus it is likely that these types of hydrological extremes could have more of an impact if appropriate adaptation measures are not taken. The majority of studies on the effects of drought are focused on meteorological, agricultural, or hydrological contexts, but there are rather fewer assessments of the impacts of droughts on health. In particular, there have been hardly any attempts to compare different drought indices in order to identify and quantify the impacts of drought on health systems. In addition, rather better knowledge is needed on the mechanisms of vulnerability involved. In this paper, we attempt to describe the complexity of drought phenomena and the difficulty involved in quantifying the health risks linked to their occurrence. From an international perspective, we provide a brief review of the harmful effects of droughts on health in the context of climate change, as well as the vulnerability factors related to droughts. We make an assessment of aspects that have not yet been investigated, or which require further attention to be devoted to this topic. The principal aim of this paper is therefore to draw attention to the need to consider closely the relationship between drought indices and human health, in order to achieve a more fundamental understanding, and to propose specific courses or lines of action for future years, which could eventually be of use to healthcare providers and services.
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