Abstract
Time is running out to limit further devastating losses of biodiversity and nature's contributions to humans. Addressing this crisis requires accurate predictions about which species and ...ecosystems are most at risk to ensure efficient use of limited conservation and management resources. We review existing biodiversity projection models and discover problematic gaps. Current models usually cannot easily be reconfigured for other species or systems, omit key biological processes, and cannot accommodate feedbacks with Earth system dynamics. To fill these gaps, we envision an adaptable, accessible, and universal biodiversity modeling platform that can project essential biodiversity variables, explore the implications of divergent socioeconomic scenarios, and compare conservation and management strategies. We design a roadmap for implementing this vision and demonstrate that building this biodiversity forecasting platform is possible and practical.
Shade tolerance and the functional trait Ameztegui, Aitor; Paquette, Alain; Shipley, Bill ...
Functional ecology,
April 2017, Letnik:
31, Številka:
4
Journal Article
Recenzirano
Odprti dostop
Summary
Despite being instrumental in forest ecology, the definition and nature of shade tolerance are complex and not beyond controversy. Moreover, the role it plays in the trait–demography ...relationship remains unclear.
Here, we hypothesize that shade tolerance can be achieved by alternative combinations of traits depending on the species' functional group (evergreen vs. deciduous species) and that its ability to explain the array of traits involved in demography will also vary between these two groups.
We used dimension reduction to identify the main trait spectra for 48 tree species, including 23 evergreens and 25 deciduous – dispersed across 21 genera and 13 families. We assessed the relationship between functional traits, shade tolerance, and demographic performance at high and low light using structural equation modelling.
The dimensions found corresponded to the trait spectra previously observed in the literature and were significantly related to measures of demography. However, our results support the existence of a divergence between evergreen and deciduous species in the way shade tolerance relates to the demography of species along light gradients.
We show that shade tolerance can be attained through different combination of traits depending on the functional and geographical context, and thus, its utilization as a predictor of forest dynamics and species coexistence requires previous knowledge on the role it plays in the demographic performance of the species under study.
A lay summary is available for this article.
Lay Summary
The study of species co-occurrences has been central in community ecology since the foundation of the discipline. Co-occurrence data are, nevertheless, a neglected source of information to model ...species distributions and biogeographers are still debating about the impact of biotic interactions on species distributions across geographical scales. We argue that a theory of species co-occurrence in ecological networks is needed to better inform interpretation of co-occurrence data, to formulate hypotheses for different community assembly mechanisms, and to extend the analysis of species distributions currently focused on the relationship between occurrences and abiotic factors. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first building blocks of a general theory for species co-occurrences. We formalize the problem with definitions of the different probabilities that are studied in the context of co-occurrence analyses. We analyze three species interactions modules and conduct multi-species simulations in order to document five principles influencing the associations between species within an ecological network: (i) direct interactions impact pairwise co-occurrence, (ii) indirect interactions impact pairwise co-occurrence, (iii) pairwise co-occurrence rarely are symmetric, (iv) the strength of an association decreases with the length of the shortest path between two species, and (v) the strength of an association decreases with the number of interactions a species is experiencing. Our analyses reveal the difficulty of the interpretation of species interactions from co-occurrence data. We discuss whether the inference of the structure of interaction networks is feasible from co-occurrence data. We also argue that species distributions models could benefit from incorporating conditional probabilities of interactions within the models as an attempt to take into account the contribution of biotic interactions to shaping individual distributions of species.
Species interactions are a key component of ecosystems but we generally have an incomplete picture of who-eats-who in a given community. Different techniques have been devised to predict species ...interactions using theoretical models or abundances. Here, we explore the K nearest neighbour approach, with a special emphasis on recommendation, along with a supervised machine learning technique. Recommenders are algorithms developed for companies like Netflix to predict whether a customer will like a product given the preferences of similar customers. These machine learning techniques are well-suited to study binary ecological interactions since they focus on positive-only data. By removing a prey from a predator, we find that recommenders can guess the missing prey around 50% of the times on the first try, with up to 881 possibilities. Traits do not improve significantly the results for the K nearest neighbour, although a simple test with a supervised learning approach (random forests) show we can predict interactions with high accuracy using only three traits per species. This result shows that binary interactions can be predicted without regard to the ecological community given only three variables: body mass and two variables for the species' phylogeny. These techniques are complementary, as recommenders can predict interactions in the absence of traits, using only information about other species' interactions, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests base their predictions on traits only but do not exploit other species' interactions. Further work should focus on developing custom similarity measures specialized for ecology to improve the KNN algorithms and using richer data to capture indirect relationships between species.
Scientists, policy makers, and journalists are three key, interconnected players involved in prioritizing and implementing solutions to mitigate the consequences of anthropogenic pressures on the ...environment. The way in which information is framed and expertise is communicated by the media is crucial for political decisions and for the integrated management of environmental issues. Here we present a comparative study of scientific literature and press articles addressing climate change and biodiversity. We extensively scrutinized the scientific literature, research funding, and press articles from the USA, Canada, and United Kingdom addressing climate change and biodiversity issues between 1991 and 2016. We found that media coverage of climate change was up to eight times higher compared to biodiversity. This discrepancy could not be explained by different scientific output between the two issues. Moreover, climate change media coverage was often related to specific events whereas no such indication of a connection was found in the case of biodiversity. An international communication strategy is urgently required to raise public awareness on biodiversity issues. We discussed several initiatives that scientists could undertake to better communicate major discoveries to the public and policy makers.
The Arctic tundra has a relatively low biodiversity but species living there have unique adaptations and are exposed to unprecedented rates of climate warming. Monitoring changes in Arctic ...biodiversity and identifying the driving forces is thus a pressing issue. Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic has one of the longest and most comprehensive monitoring programs of the tundra food web, spanning four decades. We provide a historical overview of ecological studies on Bylot Island, summarize their key scientific contributions, show their impacts, and present the ingredients for the success of the program and the main challenges encountered. Some major contributions include demonstrating the key role of predation in structuring the tundra food web, the importance of exchanges between ecosystems for the persistence of top predators and their cascading effects on trophic interactions, the apparent resistance of the vertebrate biota to climate warming, the need to consider multiple hypotheses to explain northward range expansion of species and the benefits of integrating scientific data and local knowledge into ecological monitoring. The program has produced >250 journal articles and >80 graduate student theses, which generated >7,700 citations in the scientific literature. A high proportion (65%) of the articles had more citations than comparable publications in their field. The longevity and success of the program can be attributed to several factors, including a researcher-driven (i.e. bottom-up) approach to design the monitoring; long-term commitment of a small number of dedicated researchers and the strong participation of graduate students; the adoption of a food web rather than a single species perspective; extensive presence in the field; the combination of several methodological approaches; and the use of multiple spatial scales adapted to research questions of interest. Challenges encountered include funding issues, transfer of expertise over time, limited spatial replication, statistical design and maintaining partnerships. Robust monitoring is essential to provide sound baseline to detect future changes, and lessons learned from our program could improve future monitoring schemes in the Arctic. Paradoxically, we believe that ecological monitoring on Bylot Island has been successful in large part because it was not originally designed as a monitoring program per se.
The correspondence between species distribution and the environment depends on species' ability to track favorable environmental conditions (via dispersal) and to maintain competitive hierarchy ...against the constant influx of migrants (mass effect) and demographic stochasticity (ecological drift). Here we report a simulation study of the influence of landscape structure on species distribution. We consider lottery competition for space in a spatially heterogeneous environment, where the landscape is represented as a network of localities connected by dispersal. We quantified the contribution of neutrality and species sorting to their spatial distribution. We found that neutrality increases and the strength of species-sorting decreases with the centrality of a community in the landscape when the average dispersal among communities is low, whereas the opposite was found at elevated dispersal. We also found that the strength of species-sorting increases with environmental heterogeneity. Our results illustrate that spatial structure of the environment and of dispersal must be taken into account for understanding species distribution. We stress the importance of spatial geographic structure on the relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes in controlling community dynamics.
Temperature is the most significant environmental gradient at the global scale, impacting the distributions of species and their ecological interactions. It is now established that temperature ...affects several biological rates and body mass, and can, in turn, alter interaction strength. Latitudinal variation in the strength of interactions has been observed for trophic and competitive interactions and many studies support that biotic interactions are more intense at low latitudes. Nevertheless, the mechanisms underlying the temperature dependence of trophic regulation, the effect of consumers on their preys, remain unclear. The aim of our study is to get better insights on the effects of temperature on trophic regulation. We used a consumer-resource model and considered that organisms' biological rates present a unimodal thermal response and that body mass decreases with temperature. We compared three measures of interaction strength: per capita, per population and net interaction strength. Our results demonstrate that the effect of temperature on interaction strength is contingent upon which species' biological rates are temperature dependent. When all biological rates are temperature dependent, the thermal response of interaction strength is hump-shaped following the scaling of search rate, whilst it is monotonically decreasing when only mortality rates vary with temperature. Finally, we show that temperature can indirectly impact trophic interaction strength through the temperature-size rule. A decrease in organisms' body size due to temperature induces a decrease in per capita and per population interaction strength and tend to decrease net interaction strength, depending on which trophic level follows the temperature-size rule. Our analysis gives an overview of how temperature, through various effects, may impact different measures of interaction strength.
Interaction networks are central elements of ecological systems and have very complex structures. Historically, much effort has focused on niche-mediated processes to explain these structures, while ...an emerging consensus posits that both niche and neutral mechanisms simultaneously shape many features of ecological communities. However, the study of interaction networks still lacks a comprehensive neutral theory. Here we present a neutral model of predator-prey interactions and analyze the structural characteristics of the simulated networks. We find that connectance values (complexity) and complexity-diversity relationships of neutral networks are close to those observed in empirical bipartite networks. High nestedness and low modularity values observed in neutral networks fall in the range of those from empirical antagonist bipartite networks. Our results suggest that, as an alternative to niche-mediated processes that induce incompatibility between species ("niche forbidden links"), neutral processes create "neutral forbidden links" due to uneven species abundance distributions and the low probability of interaction between rare species. Neutral trophic networks must be seen as the missing endpoint of a continuum from niche to purely stochastic approaches of community organization.
The study of ecological networks is severely limited by 1) the difficulty to access data, 2) the lack of a standardized way to link meta‐data with interactions, and 3) the disparity of formats in ...which ecological networks themselves are stored and represented. To overcome these limitations, we have designed a data specification for ecological networks. We implemented a database respecting this standard, and released an R package (rmangal) allowing users to programmatically access, curate, and deposit data on ecological interactions. In this article, we show how these tools, in conjunction with other frameworks for the programmatic manipulation of open ecological data, streamlines the analysis process and improves replicability and reproducibility of ecological network studies.
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