Community ecology is tasked with the considerable challenge of predicting the structure, and properties, of emerging ecosystems. It requires the ability to understand how and why species interact, as ...this will allow the development of mechanism-based predictive models, and as such to better characterize how ecological mechanisms act locally on the existence of inter-specific interactions. Here we argue that the current conceptualization of species interaction networks is ill-suited for this task. Instead, we propose that future research must start to account for the intrinsic variability of species interactions, then scale up from here onto complex networks. This can be accomplished simply by recognizing that there exists intra-specific variability, in traits or properties related to the establishment of species interactions. By shifting the scale towards population-based processes, we show that this new approach will improve our predictive ability and mechanistic understanding of how species interact over large spatial or temporal scales.
Synthesis
Although species interactions are the backbone of ecological communities, we have little insights on how (and why) they vary through space and time. In this article, we build on existing empirical literature to show that the same species may happen to interact in different ways when their local abundances vary, their trait distribution changes, or when the environment affects either of these factors. We discuss how these findings can be integrated in existing frameworks for the analysis and simulation of species interactions.
A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of ...existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance of 33 variants of 15 widely applied and recently emerged SDMs in the context of multispecies data, including both joint SDMs that model multiple species together, and stacked SDMs that model each species individually combining the predictions afterward. We offer a comprehensive evaluation of these SDM approaches by examining their performance in predicting withheld empirical validation data of different sizes representing five different taxonomic groups, and for prediction tasks related to both interpolation and extrapolation. We measure predictive performance by 12 measures of accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, and precision of predictions, for the biological levels of species occurrence, species richness, and community composition. Our results show large variation among the models in their predictive performance, especially for communities comprising many species that are rare. The results do not reveal any major trade-offs among measures of model performance; the same models performed generally well in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, and for the biological levels of individual species, species richness, and community composition. In contrast, the models that gave the most precise predictions were not well calibrated, suggesting that poorly performing models can make overconfident predictions. However, none of the models performed well for all prediction tasks. As a general strategy, we therefore propose that researchers fit a small set of models showing complementary performance, and then apply a cross-validation procedure involving separate data to establish which of these models performs best for the goal of the study.
The diversity of life and its organization in networks of interacting species has been a long-standing theoretical puzzle for ecologists. Ever since May's provocative paper challenging whether 'large ...complex systems are stable' various hypotheses have been proposed to explain when stability should be the rule, not the exception. Spatial dynamics may be stabilizing and thus explain high community diversity, yet existing theory on spatial stabilization is limited, preventing comparisons of the role of dispersal relative to species interactions. Here we incorporate dispersal of organisms and material into stability-complexity theory. We find that stability criteria from classic theory are relaxed in direct proportion to the number of ecologically distinct patches in the meta-ecosystem. Further, we find the stabilizing effect of dispersal is maximal at intermediate intensity. Our results highlight how biodiversity can be vulnerable to factors, such as landscape fragmentation and habitat loss, that isolate local communities.
In a context of global changes, and amidst the perpetual modification of community structure undergone by most natural ecosystems, it is more important than ever to understand how species ...interactions vary through space and time. The integration of biogeography and network theory will yield important results and further our understanding of species interactions. It has, however, been hampered so far by the difficulty to quantify variation among interaction networks. Here, we propose a general framework to study the dissimilarity of species interaction networks over time, space or environments, allowing both the use of quantitative and qualitative data. We decompose network dissimilarity into interactions and species turnover components, so that it is immediately comparable to common measures of β‐diversity. We emphasise that scaling up β‐diversity of community composition to the β‐diversity of interactions requires only a small methodological step, which we foresee will help empiricists adopt this method. We illustrate the framework with a large dataset of hosts and parasites interactions and highlight other possible usages. We discuss a research agenda towards a biogeographical theory of species interactions.
Food webs are complex ecological networks whose structure is both ecologically and statistically constrained, with many network properties being correlated with each other. Despite the recognition of ...these invariable relationships in food webs, the use of the principle of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) in network ecology is still rare. This is surprising considering that MaxEnt is a statistical tool precisely designed for understanding and predicting many types of constrained systems. This principle asserts that the least-biased probability distribution of a system’s property, constrained by prior knowledge about that system, is the one with maximum information entropy. MaxEnt has been proven useful in many ecological modeling problems, but its application in food webs and other ecological networks is limited. Here we show how MaxEnt can be used to derive many food-web properties both analytically and heuristically. First, we show how the joint degree distribution (the joint probability distribution of the numbers of prey and predators for each species in the network) can be derived analytically using the number of species and the number of interactions in food webs. Second, we present a heuristic and flexible approach of finding a network’s adjacency matrix (the network’s representation in matrix format) based on simulated annealing and SVD entropy. We built two heuristic models using the connectance and the joint degree sequence as statistical constraints, respectively. We compared both models’ predictions against corresponding null and neutral models commonly used in network ecology using open access data of terrestrial and aquatic food webs sampled globally (N = 257). We found that the heuristic model constrained by the joint degree sequence was a good predictor of many measures of food-web structure, especially the nestedness and motifs distribution. Specifically, our results suggest that the structure of terrestrial and aquatic food webs is mainly driven by their joint degree distribution.
A rich body of knowledge links biodiversity to ecosystem functioning (BEF), but it is primarily focused on small scales. We review the current theory and identify six expectations for scale ...dependence in the BEF relationship: (1) a nonlinear change in the slope of the BEF relationship with spatial scale; (2) a scale‐dependent relationship between ecosystem stability and spatial extent; (3) coexistence within and among sites will result in a positive BEF relationship at larger scales; (4) temporal autocorrelation in environmental variability affects species turnover and thus the change in BEF slope with scale; (5) connectivity in metacommunities generates nonlinear BEF and stability relationships by affecting population synchrony at local and regional scales; (6) spatial scaling in food web structure and diversity will generate scale dependence in ecosystem functioning. We suggest directions for synthesis that combine approaches in metaecosystem and metacommunity ecology and integrate cross‐scale feedbacks. Tests of this theory may combine remote sensing with a generation of networked experiments that assess effects at multiple scales. We also show how anthropogenic land cover change may alter the scaling of the BEF relationship. New research on the role of scale in BEF will guide policy linking the goals of managing biodiversity and ecosystems.
We address the challenge of scale for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) research. We review current theory and identify six expectations for scale dependence in the BEF relationship. We suggest directions for synthesis that combine theoretical and empirical methods and suggest their application to human transformed landscapes.
Evaluating the effects of multiple stressors on ecosystems is becoming increasingly vital with global changes. The role of species interactions in propagating the effects of stressors, although ...widely acknowledged, has yet to be formally explored. Here, we conceptualise how stressors propagate through food webs and explore how they affect simulated three‐species motifs and food webs of the Canadian St. Lawrence System. We find that overlooking species interactions invariably underestimate the effects of stressors, and that synergistic and antagonistic effects through food webs are prevalent. We also find that interaction type influences a species’ susceptibility to stressors; species in omnivory and tri‐trophic food chain interactions in particular are sensitive and prone to synergistic and antagonistic effects. Finally, we find that apex predators were negatively affected and mesopredators benefited from the effects of stressors due to their trophic position in the St. Lawrence System, but that species sensitivity is dependent on food web structure. In conceptualising the effects of multiple stressors on food webs, we bring theory closer to practice and show that considering the intricacies of ecological communities is key to assess the net effects of stressors on species.
The role of species interactions in propagating the effects of stressors, although widely acknowledged, has yet to be formally explored. Here, we conceptualise how stressors propagate through food webs and we find that overlooking species interactions invariably underestimate the effects of stressors. In conceptualising the effects of multiple stressors on food webs, we bring theory closer to practice and show that considering the intricacies of ecological communities is key to assess the net effects of stressors on species.
ABSTRACT
Biological insurance theory predicts that, in a variable environment, aggregate ecosystem properties will vary less in more diverse communities because declines in the performance or ...abundance of some species or phenotypes will be offset, at least partly, by smoother declines or increases in others. During the past two decades, ecology has accumulated strong evidence for the stabilising effect of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning. As biological insurance is reaching the stage of a mature theory, it is critical to revisit and clarify its conceptual foundations to guide future developments, applications and measurements. In this review, we first clarify the connections between the insurance and portfolio concepts that have been used in ecology and the economic concepts that inspired them. Doing so points to gaps and mismatches between ecology and economics that could be filled profitably by new theoretical developments and new management applications. Second, we discuss some fundamental issues in biological insurance theory that have remained unnoticed so far and that emerge from some of its recent applications. In particular, we draw a clear distinction between the two effects embedded in biological insurance theory, i.e. the effects of biodiversity on the mean and variability of ecosystem properties. This distinction allows explicit consideration of trade‐offs between the mean and stability of ecosystem processes and services. We also review applications of biological insurance theory in ecosystem management. Finally, we provide a synthetic conceptual framework that unifies the various approaches across disciplines, and we suggest new ways in which biological insurance theory could be extended to address new issues in ecology and ecosystem management. Exciting future challenges include linking the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning and stability, incorporating multiple functions and feedbacks, developing new approaches to partition biodiversity effects across scales, extending biological insurance theory to complex interaction networks, and developing new applications to biodiversity and ecosystem management.
Understanding the mechanisms responsible for stability and persistence of ecosystems is one of the greatest challenges in ecology. Robert May showed that, contrary to intuition, complex randomly ...built ecosystems are less likely to be stable than simpler ones. Few attempts have been tried to test May's prediction empirically, and we still ignore what is the actual complexity-stability relationship in natural ecosystems. Here we perform a stability analysis of 116 quantitative food webs sampled worldwide. We find that classic descriptors of complexity (species richness, connectance and interaction strength) are not associated with stability in empirical food webs. Further analysis reveals that a correlation between the effects of predators on prey and those of prey on predators, combined with a high frequency of weak interactions, stabilize food web dynamics relative to the random expectation. We conclude that empirical food webs have several non-random properties contributing to the absence of a complexity-stability relationship.
Keystone species are defined as having disproportionate importance in their community. This concept has proved useful and is now often used in conservation ecology. Here, we introduce the concept of ...keystone communities (and ecosystems) within metacommunities (and metaecosystems). We define keystone and burden communities as communities with impacts disproportionately large (positive or negative respectively) relative to their weight in the metacommunity. We show how a simple metric, based on the effects of single‐community removals, can characterise communities along a ‘keystoneness’ axis. We illustrate the usefulness of this approach with examples from two different theoretical models. We further distinguish environmental heterogeneity from species trait heterogeneity as determinants of keystoneness. We suggest that the concept of keystone communities/ecosystems will be highly beneficial, not only as a fundamental step towards understanding species interactions in a spatial context, but also as a tool for the management of disturbed landscapes.
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