Highlights • Exponential growth is assumed for lung cancer but has never been quantified in-vivo. • Growth patterns of 47 screen-detected solid lung cancers were quantified. • Lung cancer growth ...could be described by an exponential function with excellent fit. • Therefore, volume-doubling time can be used to describe growth of pulmonary nodules.
Objectives The aim of this study was to derivate and validate a prediction model for cardiovascular events based on quantification of coronary and aortic calcium volume in lung cancer screening chest ...computed tomography (CT). Background CT-based lung cancer screening in heavy smokers is a very timely topic. Given that the heavily smoking screening population is also at risk for cardiovascular disease, CT-based screening may provide the opportunity to additionally identify participants at high cardiovascular risk. Methods Inspiratory screening CT of the chest was obtained in 3,648 screening participants. Next, smoking characteristics, patient demographics, and physician-diagnosed cardiovascular events were collected from 10 years before the screening CT (i.e., cardiovascular history) until 3 years after the screening CT (i.e., follow-up time). Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to derivate and validate a prediction model for cardiovascular risk. Age, smoking status, smoking history, and cardiovascular history, together with automatically quantified coronary and aortic calcium volume from the screening CT, were included as independent predictors. The primary outcome measure was the discriminatory value of the model. Results Incident cardiovascular events occurred in 145 of 1,834 males (derivation cohort) and 118 of 1,725 males and 2 of 89 females (validation cohort). The model showed good discrimination in the validation cohort with a C-statistic of 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.67 to 0.76). When high risk was defined as a 3-year risk of 6% and higher, 589 of 1,725 males were regarded as high risk and 72 of 118 of all events were correctly predicted by the model. Conclusions Quantification of coronary and aortic calcium volumes in lung cancer screening CT images—information that is readily available—can be used to predict cardiovascular risk. Such an approach might prove useful in the reduction of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and may enhance the cost-effectiveness of CT-based screening in heavy smokers.
Background Up to 50% of the participants in CT scan lung cancer screening trials have at least one pulmonary nodule. To date, the role of conventional bronchoscopy in the workup of suspicious ...screen-detected pulmonary nodules is unknown. If a bronchoscopic evaluation could be eliminated, the cost-effectiveness of a screening program could be enhanced and the potential harms of bronchoscopy avoided. Methods All consecutive participants with a positive result on a CT scan lung cancer screening between April 2004 and December 2008 were enrolled. The diagnostic sensitivity and negative predictive value were calculated at the level of the suspicious nodules. In 95% of the nodules, the gold standard for the outcome of the bronchoscopy was based on surgical resection specimens. Results A total of 318 suspicious lesions were evaluated by bronchoscopy in 308 participants. The mean ± SD diameter of the nodules was 14.6 ± 8.7 mm, whereas only 2.8% of nodules were > 30 mm in diameter. The sensitivity of bronchoscopy was 13.5% (95% CI, 9.0%-19.6%); the specificity, 100%; the positive predictive value, 100%; and the negative predictive value, 47.6% (95% CI, 41.8%-53.5%). Of all cancers detected, 1% were detected by bronchoscopy only and were retrospectively invisible on both low-dose CT scan and CT scan with IV contrast. Conclusion Conventional white-light bronchoscopy should not be routinely recommended for patients with positive test results in a lung cancer screening program. Trial registration Nederlands Trial Register; No.: ISRCTN63545820; URL: www.trialregister.nl.
The TIGER-3 (NCT02322281) study was initiated to compare the efficacy and safety of rociletinib, a third-generation EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) that targets EGFR T790M and common ...EGFR-activating mutations, versus chemotherapy in patients with NSCLC who progressed on first- or second-generation EGFR TKIs.
Patients with advanced or metastatic EGFR-mutated NSCLC with disease progression on standard therapy (previous EGFR TKI and platinum-based chemotherapy) were randomized to oral rociletinib (500 or 625 mg twice daily) or single-agent chemotherapy (pemetrexed, gemcitabine, docetaxel, or paclitaxel).
Enrollment was halted when rociletinib development was discontinued in 2016. Of 149 enrolled patients, 75 were randomized to rociletinib (n = 53: 500 mg twice daily; n = 22: 625 mg twice daily) and 74 to chemotherapy. The median investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS) was 4.1 months (95% confidence interval CI: 2.6–5.4) in the rociletinib 500-mg group and 5.5 months (95% CI: 1.8–8.1) in the 625-mg group versus 2.5 months (95% CI: 1.4–2.9) in the chemotherapy group. An improved PFS was observed in patients with T790M-positive NSCLC treated with rociletinib (n = 25; 500 mg and 625 mg twice daily) versus chemotherapy (n = 20; 6.8 versus 2.7 mo; hazard ratio = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.28–1.07, p = 0.074). Grade 3 or higher hyperglycemia (24.0%), corrected QT prolongation (6.7%), diarrhea (2.7%), and vomiting (1.3%) were more frequent with rociletinib than chemotherapy (0%, 0%, 1.4%, and 0%, respectively).
Rociletinib had a more favorable median PFS versus chemotherapy but had higher rates of hyperglycemia and corrected QT prolongation in patients with advanced EGFR-mutated NSCLC who progressed on previous EGFR TKI. Incomplete enrollment prevented evaluation of the primary efficacy end point.
We report brigatinib long-term efficacy and safety from phase 1/2 and phase 2 (ALTA) trials in ALK–rearrangement positive (ALK+) NSCLC.
The phase 1/2 study evaluated brigatinib 30 to 300 mg/d in ...patients with advanced malignancies. ALTA randomized patients with crizotinib-refractory ALK+ NSCLC to brigatinib 90 mg once daily (arm A) or 180 mg once daily (7-d lead-in at 90 mg; arm B).
In the phase 1/2 study, 79 of 137 brigatinib-treated patients had ALK+ NSCLC; 71 were crizotinib pretreated. ALTA randomized 222 patients (n = 112 in arm A; n = 110 in arm B). Median follow-up at phase 1/2 study end (≈5.6 y after last patient enrolled) was 27.7 months; at ALTA study end (≈4.4 y after last patient enrolled), 19.6 months (A) and 28.3 months (B). Among patients with ALK+ NSCLC in the phase 1/2 study, median investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS) was 14.5 months (95% confidence interval CI: 10.8–21.2); median overall survival was 47.6 months (28.6–not reached). In ALTA, median investigator-assessed PFS was 9.2 months (7.4–11.1) in arm A and 15.6 months (11.1–18.5) in arm B; median independent review committee (IRC)-assessed PFS was 9.9 (7.4–12.8) and 16.7 (11.6–21.4) months, respectively; median overall survival was 25.9 (18.2–45.8) and 40.6 (32.5–not reached) months, respectively. Median intracranial PFS for patients with any brain metastases was 12.8 (9.2–18.4) months in arm A and 18.4 (12.6–23.9) months in arm B. No new safety signals were identified versus previous analyses.
Brigatinib exhibited sustained long-term activity and PFS with manageable safety in patients with crizotinib-refractory ALK+ NSCLC.
Background Recent evidence indicates that the rate of lung function decline is steepest in mild COPD and slower in moderate to severe COPD. The current study assessed whether lung function decline ...relates to baseline airflow obstruction severity in male heavy smokers. Methods In total, 2,003 male smokers with a mean (SD) age of 59.8 (5.3) years underwent pulmonary function testing at baseline and after 3-year follow-up. Participants were classified by entry FEV1 /FVC as follows: group 1, >70%; group 2, <70%, but greater than lower limit of normal (LLN); and group 3, less than LLN. Differences in lung function decline among the groups were assessed using multiple regression after adjustment for pack-years, smoking status (current or former smoker), presence or absence of mucus production, medical center, height, age, CT scan-derived emphysema severity (15th percentile), observation time (years in study), and the baseline values. Results Over 3 years, the mean (SD) FEV1 /FVC, FEV1 , and maximum expiratory flow at 50% of FVC decreases in group 1 were 3.1% (1), 0.21 L (0.07), and 0.40 L/s (0.26), respectively. In group 3, these decreases were 2.4% (1.1), 0.15 L (0.08), and 0.06 L/s (0.19), respectively. All lung function parameters showed the greatest decline in group 1 ( P < .001). Conclusions Diagnosing COPD based on the presence of more severe airflow obstruction (as defined by FEV1 /FVC less than LLN) means that, at the time of such a diagnosis, subjects had passed the phase of strong lung-function decline. Trial registry ISRCTN Register; No.: ISRCTN63545820; URL: www.trialregister.nl
Summary Background The main challenge in CT screening for lung cancer is the high prevalence of pulmonary nodules and the relatively low incidence of lung cancer. Management protocols use thresholds ...for nodule size and growth rate to determine which nodules require additional diagnostic procedures, but these should be based on individuals' probabilities of developing lung cancer. In this prespecified analysis, using data from the NELSON CT screening trial, we aimed to quantify how nodule diameter, volume, and volume doubling time affect the probability of developing lung cancer within 2 years of a CT scan, and to propose and evaluate thresholds for management protocols. Methods Eligible participants in the NELSON trial were those aged 50–75 years, who have smoked 15 cigarettes or more per day for more than 25 years, or ten cigarettes or more for more than 30 years and were still smoking, or had stopped smoking less than 10 years ago. Participants were randomly assigned to low-dose CT screening at increasing intervals, or no screening. We included all participants assigned to the screening group who had attended at least one round of screening, and whose results were available from the national cancer registry database. We calculated lung cancer probabilities, stratified by nodule diameter, volume, and volume doubling time and did logistic regression analysis using diameter, volume, volume doubling time, and multinodularity as potential predictor variables. We assessed management strategies based on nodule threshold characteristics for specificity and sensitivity, and compared them to the American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) guidelines. The NELSON trial is registered at www.trialregister.nl , number ISRCTN63545820. Findings Volume, volume doubling time, and volumetry-based diameter of 9681 non-calcified nodules detected by CT screening in 7155 participants in the screening group of NELSON were used to quantify lung cancer probability. Lung cancer probability was low in participants with a nodule volume of 100 mm3 or smaller (0·6% 95% CI 0·4–0·8) or maximum transverse diameter smaller than 5 mm (0·4% 0·2–0·7), and not significantly different from participants without nodules (0·4% 0·3–0·6, p=0·17 and p=1·00, respectively). Lung cancer probability was intermediate (requiring follow-up CT) if nodules had a volume of 100–300 mm3 (2·4% 95% CI 1·7–3·5) or a diameter 5–10 mm (1·3% 1·0–1·8). Volume doubling time further stratified the probabilities: 0·8% (95% CI 0·4–1·7) for volume doubling times 600 days or more, 4·0% (1·8–8·3) for volume doubling times 400–600 days, and 9·9% (6·9–14·1) for volume doubling times of 400 days or fewer. Lung cancer probability was high for participants with nodule volumes 300 mm3 or bigger (16·9% 95% CI 14·1–20·0) or diameters 10 mm or bigger (15·2% 12·7–18·1). The simulated ACCP management protocol yielded a sensitivity and specificity of 90·9% (95% CI 81·2–96·1), and 87·2% (86·4–87·9), respectively. A diameter-based protocol with volumetry-based nodule diameter yielded a higher sensitivity (92·4% 95% CI 83·1–97·1), and a higher specificity (90·0% 89·3–90·7). A volume-based protocol (with thresholds based on lung cancer probability) yielded the same sensitivity as the ACCP protocol (90·9% 95% CI 81·2–96·1), and a higher specificity (94·9% 94·4–95·4). Interpretation Small nodules (those with a volume <100 mm3 or diameter <5 mm) are not predictive for lung cancer. Immediate diagnostic evaluation is necessary for large nodules (≥300 mm3 or ≥10 mm). Volume doubling time assessment is advocated only for intermediate-sized nodules (with a volume ranging between 100–300 mm3 or diameter of 5–10 mm). Nodule management protocols based on these thresholds performed better than the simulated ACCP nodule protocol. Funding Zorgonderzoek Nederland Medische Wetenschappen and Koningin Wilhelmina Fonds.
Summary Background US guidelines now recommend lung cancer screening with low-dose CT for high-risk individuals. Reports of new nodules after baseline screening have been scarce and are inconsistent ...because of differences in definitions used. We aimed to identify the occurrence of new solid nodules and their probability of being lung cancer at incidence screening rounds in the Dutch-Belgian Randomized Lung Cancer Screening Trial (NELSON). Methods In the ongoing, multicentre, randomised controlled NELSON trial, between Dec 23, 2003, and July 6, 2006, 15 822 participants who had smoked at least 15 cigarettes a day for more than 25 years or ten cigarettes a day for more than 30 years and were current smokers, or had quit smoking less than 10 years ago, were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive either screening with low-dose CT (n=7915) or no screening (n=7907). From Jan 28, 2004, to Dec 18, 2006, 7557 individuals underwent baseline screening with low-dose CT; 7295 participants underwent second and third screening rounds. We included all participants with solid non-calcified nodules, registered by the NELSON radiologists as new or smaller than 15 mm3 (study detection limit) at previous screens. Nodule volume was generated semiautomatically by software. We calculated the maximum volume doubling time for nodules with an estimated percentage volume change of 25% or more, representing the minimum growth rate for the time since the previous scan. Lung cancer diagnosis was based on histology, and benignity was based on histology or stable size for at least 2 years. The NELSON trial is registered at trialregister.nl, number ISRCTN63545820. Findings We analysed data for participants with at least one solid non-calcified nodule at the second or third screening round. In the two incidence screening rounds, the NELSON radiologists registered 1222 new solid nodules in 787 (11%) participants. A new solid nodule was lung cancer in 49 (6%) participants with new solid nodules and, in total, 50 lung cancers were found, representing 4% of all new solid nodules. 34 (68%) lung cancers were diagnosed at stage I. Nodule volume had a high discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating curve 0·795 95% CI 0·728–0·862; p<0·0001). Nodules smaller than 27 mm3 had a low probability of lung cancer (two 0·5% of 417 nodules; lung cancer probability 0·5% 95% CI 0·0–1·9), nodules with a volume of 27 mm3 up to 206 mm3 had an intermediate probability (17 3·1% of 542 nodules; lung cancer probability 3·1% 1·9–5·0), and nodules of 206 mm3 or greater had a high probability (29 16·9% of 172 nodules; lung cancer probability 16·9% 12·0–23·2). A volume cutoff value of 27 mm3 or greater had more than 95% sensitivity for lung cancer. Interpretation Our study shows that new solid nodules are detected at each screening round in 5–7% of individuals who undergo screening for lung cancer with low-dose CT. These new nodules have a high probability of malignancy even at a small size. These findings should be considered in future screening guidelines, and new solid nodules should be followed up more aggressively than nodules detected at baseline screening. Funding Zorgonderzoek Nederland Medische Wetenschappen and Koningin Wilhelmina Fonds Kankerbestrijding.
Summary Background The standard of care for operable, stage I, non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is lobectomy with mediastinal lymph node dissection or sampling. Stereotactic ablative radiotherapy ...(SABR) for inoperable stage I NSCLC has shown promising results, but two independent, randomised, phase 3 trials of SABR in patients with operable stage I NSCLC (STARS and ROSEL) closed early due to slow accrual. We aimed to assess overall survival for SABR versus surgery by pooling data from these trials. Methods Eligible patients in the STARS and ROSEL studies were those with clinical T1–2a (<4 cm), N0M0, operable NSCLC. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to SABR or lobectomy with mediastinal lymph node dissection or sampling. We did a pooled analysis in the intention-to-treat population using overall survival as the primary endpoint. Both trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (STARS: NCT00840749 ; ROSEL: NCT00687986 ). Findings 58 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned (31 to SABR and 27 to surgery). Median follow-up was 40·2 months (IQR 23·0–47·3) for the SABR group and 35·4 months (18·9–40·7) for the surgery group. Six patients in the surgery group died compared with one patient in the SABR group. Estimated overall survival at 3 years was 95% (95% CI 85–100) in the SABR group compared with 79% (64–97) in the surgery group (hazard ratio HR 0·14 95% CI 0·017–1·190, log-rank p=0·037). Recurrence-free survival at 3 years was 86% (95% CI 74–100) in the SABR group and 80% (65–97) in the surgery group (HR 0·69 95% CI 0·21–2·29, log-rank p=0·54). In the surgery group, one patient had regional nodal recurrence and two had distant metastases; in the SABR group, one patient had local recurrence, four had regional nodal recurrence, and one had distant metastases. Three (10%) patients in the SABR group had grade 3 treatment-related adverse events (three 10% chest wall pain, two 6% dyspnoea or cough, and one 3% fatigue and rib fracture). No patients given SABR had grade 4 events or treatment-related death. In the surgery group, one (4%) patient died of surgical complications and 12 (44%) patients had grade 3–4 treatment-related adverse events. Grade 3 events occurring in more than one patient in the surgery group were dyspnoea (four 15% patients), chest pain (four 15% patients), and lung infections (two 7%). Interpretation SABR could be an option for treating operable stage I NSCLC. Because of the small patient sample size and short follow-up, additional randomised studies comparing SABR with surgery in operable patients are warranted. Funding Accuray Inc, Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development, NCI Cancer Center Support, NCI Clinical and Translational Science Award.
Summary Background BRAF mutations act as an oncogenic driver via the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). BRAF inhibition has shown antitumour ...activity in patients with BRAFV600E -mutant NSCLC. Dual MAPK pathway inhibition with BRAF and MEK inhibitors in BRAFV600E -mutant NSCLC might improve efficacy over BRAF inhibitor monotherapy based on observations in BRAFV600 -mutant melanoma. We aimed to assess the antitumour activity and safety of dabrafenib plus trametinib in patients with BRAFV600E -mutant NSCLC. Methods In this phase 2, multicentre, non-randomised, open-label study, we enrolled adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with pretreated metastatic stage IV BRAFV600E -mutant NSCLC who had documented tumour progression after at least one previous platinum-based chemotherapy and had had no more than three previous systemic anticancer therapies. Patients with previous BRAF or MEK inhibitor treatment were ineligible. Patients with brain metastases were allowed to enrol only if the lesions were asymptomatic, untreated (or stable more than 3 weeks after local therapy if treated), and measured less than 1 cm. Enrolled patients received oral dabrafenib (150 mg twice daily) plus oral trametinib (2 mg once daily) in continuous 21-day cycles until disease progression, unacceptable adverse events, withdrawal of consent, or death. The primary endpoint was investigator-assessed overall response, which was assessed by intention to treat in the protocol-defined population (patients who received second-line or later treatment); safety was also assessed in this population and was assessed at least once every 3 weeks, with adverse events, laboratory values, and vital signs graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. The study is ongoing but no longer recruiting patients. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT01336634. Findings Between Dec 20, 2013, and Jan 14, 2015, 59 patients from 30 centres in nine countries across North America, Europe, and Asia met eligibility criteria. Two patients who had previously been untreated due to protocol deviation were excluded; thus, 57 eligible patients were enrolled. 36 patients (63·2% 95% CI 49·3–75·6) achieved an investigator-assessed overall response. Serious adverse events were reported in 32 (56%) of 57 patients and included pyrexia in nine (16%), anaemia in three (5%), confusional state in two (4%), decreased appetite in two (4%), haemoptysis in two (4%), hypercalcaemia in two (4%), nausea in two (4%), and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in two (4%). The most common grade 3–4 adverse events were neutropenia in five patients (9%), hyponatraemia in four (7%), and anaemia in three (5%). Four patients died during the study from fatal adverse events judged to be unrelated to treatment (one retroperitoneal haemorrhage, one subarachnoid haemorrhage, one respiratory distress, and one from disease progression that was more severe than typical progression, as assessed by the investigator). Interpretation Dabrafenib plus trametinib could represent a new targeted therapy with robust antitumour activity and a manageable safety profile in patients with BRAFV600E -mutant NSCLC. Funding GlaxoSmithKline.
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