To date, few studies have investigated the causal relationship between mortality and long-term exposure to a low level of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations.
We studied 242,320 registered ...deaths in Queensland between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2013, with satellite-retrieved annual average PM2.5 concentrations to each postcode. A variant of difference-in-differences (DID) approach was used to investigate the association of long-term PM2.5 exposure with total mortality and cause-specific (cardiovascular, respiratory, and non-accidental) mortality. We observed 217,510 non-accidental deaths, 133,661 cardiovascular deaths, and 30,748 respiratory deaths in Queensland during the study period. The annual average PM2.5 concentrations ranged from 1.6 to 9.0 μg/m3, which were well below the current World Health Organization (WHO) annual standard (10 μg/m3). Long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with increased total mortality and cause-specific mortality. For each 1 μg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5, we found a 2.02% (95% CI 1.41%-2.63%; p < 0.01) increase in total mortality. Higher effect estimates were observed in Brisbane than those in Queensland for all types of mortality. A major limitation of our study is that the DID design is under the assumption that no predictors other than seasonal temperature exhibit different spatial-temporal variations in relation to PM2.5 exposure. However, if this assumption is violated (e.g., socioeconomic status SES and outdoor physical activities), the DID design is still subject to confounding.
Long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with total, non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in Queensland, Australia, where PM2.5 levels were measured well below the WHO air quality standard.
Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality relationship. It reflects human adaptability to local climate. The existing MMT estimates were ...usually based on case studies in data rich regions, and limited evidence about MMT was available at a global scale. It is still unclear what the most significant driver of MMT is and how MMT will change under global climate change. Here, by analysing MMTs in 420 locations covering six continents (Antarctica was excluded) in the world, we found that although the MMT changes geographically, it is very close to the local most frequent temperature (MFT) in the same period. The association between MFT and MMT is not changed when we adjust for latitude and study year. Based on the MFT~MMT association, we estimate and map the global distribution of MMTs in the present (2010s) and the future (2050s) for the first time.
Summary Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the ...whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures. Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles. Findings We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality. Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios. Funding UK Medical Research Council.
Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess ...cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2-3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4-4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5-9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0-1.2%) and 3.6% (-0.5-7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change.
Mortality displacement (or "harvesting") has been identified as a key issue in the assessment of the temperature-mortality relationship. However, only a few studies have addressed the "harvesting" ...issue and findings have not been consistent.
We examined the potential impact of both short- and long-term harvesting effects on heat-related deaths in Brisbane, Australia.
We collected data on daily counts of deaths (nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory), weather, and air pollution in Brisbane from 1 January 1996 to 30 November 2004. We estimated heat-related deaths, identified potential short-term mortality displacement, and assessed how and to what extent the impact of summer temperature on mortality was modified by mortality in the previous winter using a Poisson time-series regression combined with distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM).
There were significant associations between temperature and each mortality outcome in summer. We found evidence of short-term mortality displacement for respiratory mortality, and evidence of longer-term mortality displacement for nonaccidental and cardiovascular mortality when the preceding winter's mortality was low. The estimated heat effect on mortality was generally stronger when the preceding winter mortality level was low. For example, we estimated a 22% increase in nonaccidental mortality (95% CI: 14, 30) with a 1°C increase in mean temperature above a 28°C threshold in summers that followed a winter with low mortality, compared with 12% (95% CI: 7, 17) following a winter with high mortality. The short- and long-term mortality displacement appeared to jointly influence the assessment of heat-related deaths.
We found evidence of both short- and long-term harvesting effects on heat-related mortality in Brisbane, Australia. Our finding may clarify temperature-related health risks and inform effective public health interventions to manage the health impacts of climate change.
The present study was carried out to evaluate the pharmacological effect of Zn in diarrhoea in relation to intestinal permeability. Seventy-two weaning piglets, aged 24 d, were allocated to three ...dietary treatments: (1) control diet without supplemental Zn; (2) control diet supplemented with 2000 mg Zn/kg from ZnO; (3) control diet supplemented with 2000 mg Zn/kg from tetrabasic zinc chloride (TBZC). At the end of a 14 d experiment period, piglets were weighed, feed consumption was measured, and mucosal barrier function was determined using the lactulose/mannitol test. Expression of mucosal tight junction protein was measured at RNA and protein level. Inclusion of TBZC or ZnO in the diet significantly increased average daily gain (P < 0·01) and average daily feed intake (P < 0·05), while leading to reduced feed conversion ratio (P < 0·05) and faecal scores (P < 0·01). TBZC reduced urinary lactulose:mannitol ratios of weaning piglets (P < 0·05), while dietary supplementation with ZnO tended to reduce urinary lactulose:mannitol ratios (P = 0·061). ZnO or TBZC significantly enhanced the mRNA and protein expression of occludin (P < 0·05) and zonula occludens protein-1 (ZO-1) (P < 0·05) in the ileal mucosa. Piglets fed the TBZC-supplemented diet had a higher level of occludin than pigs fed the ZnO-supplemented diet (P < 0·05). The results indicate that Zn supplementation decreased faecal scores and the reduction was accompanied by reduced intestinal permeability, which was evident from the reduced urinary lactulose:mannitol ratios and increased expression of occludin and ZO-1. Therefore, the protective effect of pharmacological levels of dietary Zn in reducing diarrhoea might, at least partly, be associated with reduced intestinal permeability.
This study shows the effects of dietary supplementation with Lactobacillus acidophilus on the gut microbiota of broiler chickens challenged with Clostridium perfringens infection during a 21-day ...period according to pyrosequencing of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. In a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement of treatments, 308 1-day-old male Arbor Acres broiler chicks were analyzed for the effects of the probiotic (groups without or with L. acidophilus supplementation), pathogen challenge (groups without or with C. perfringens), and the effects of interaction. The infection decreased the number of Observed species, Chao1, and ACE of ileal microbiota and increased Chao1 of cecal microbiota of broilers, whereas L. acidophilus supplementation decreased the Shannon index of the ileal microbiota. Shannon index and Simpson indices were lower in the ileal microbiota than in the cecal microbiota. In the ileal microbiota, the control group had higher relative abundance of Lachnospiraceae and Ruminococcaceae in comparison with the other groups; however, the relative abundance of Gammaproteobacteria was significantly higher in the challenge group than in the other groups. C. perfringens infection tended to increase lactate concentration and decreasedconcentrations of formate, acetate and propionate in the ileum; decreased isobutyrate concentration; and tended to decrease isovalerate concentration in the cecum. Besides, L. acidophilus supplementation increased the concentration of lactate and butyrate and decreased concentrations of formate and propionate in the ileum, and increased concentrations of lactate and valerate in the cecum. In conclusion, C. perfringens infection and/or dietary supplementation with L. acidophilus modulated the relative abundance of some bacteria taxa, and the L. acidophilus supplementation helped to restore the microbial community disrupted by C. perfringens infection.
Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Pei; Abramson, Michael J ...
New England journal of medicine/The New England journal of medicine,
11/2020, Letnik:
383, Številka:
22
Journal Article
BACKGROUND: Although interest in assessing the impacts of temperature on mortality has increased,few studies have used a case-crossover design to examine nonlinear and distributed lag effects of ...temperature on mortality. Additionally, little evidence is available on the temperature—mortality relationship in China or on what temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality, OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to use a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) as a part of case crossover design to examine the nonlinear and distributed lag effects of temperature on mortality in Tianjin, China and to explore which temperature measure is the best predictor of mortality. METHODS: We applied die DLNM to a case-crossover design to assess die nonlinear and delayed effects of temperatures (maximum, mean, and minimum) on deaths (nonaccidental, cardiopulmonary,cardiovascular, and respiratory). RESULTS: A U-shaped relationship was found consistently between temperature and mortality. Cold effects (i.e., significantly increased mortality associated with low temperatures) were delayed by 3 days and persisted for 10 days. Hot effects (i.e., significantly increased mortality associated with high temperatures) were acute and lasted for 3 days and were followed by mortality displacement for nonaccidental, cardiopulmonary, and cardiovascular deatiis. Mean temperature was a better predictor of mortality (based on model fit) than maximum or minimum temperature. CONCLUSIONS: In Tianjin, extreme cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality. The effects of cold last longer than the effects of heat. Combining the DLNM and the case-crossover design allows the case-crossover design to flexibly estimate the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature(or air pollution) while controlling for season.
Studies worldwide have estimated the number of deaths attributable to long-term exposure to fine airborne particles (PM2.5), but limited information is available on short-term exposure, particularly ...in China. In addition, most existing studies have assumed that short-term PM2.5-mortality associations were linear. For this reason, the use of linear exposure-response functions for calculating disease burden of short-term exposure to PM2.5 in China may not be appropriate. There is an urgent need for a comprehensive, evidence-based assessment of the disease burden related to short-term PM2.5 exposure in China. Here, we explored the non-linear association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and all-cause mortality in 104 counties in China; estimated county-specific mortality burdens attributable to short-term PM2.5 exposure for all counties in the country and analyzed spatial characteristics of the mortality burden due to short-term PM2.5 exposure in China. The pooled PM2.5-mortality association was non-linear, with a reversed J-shape. We found an approximately linear increased risk of mortality from 0 to 62 μg/m3 and decreased risk from 62 to 250 μg/m3. We estimated a total of 169,862 additional deaths from short-term PM2.5 exposure throughout China in 2015. Models using linear exposure-response functions for the PM2.5-mortality association estimated 32,186 deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure, which is 5.3 times lower than estimates from the non-linear effect model. Short-term PM2.5 exposure contributed greatly to the death burden in China, approximately one seventh of the estimates from the chronic effect. It is essential and crucial to incorporate short-term PM2.5-related mortality estimations when considering the disease burden attributable to PM2.5 in developing countries such as China. Traditional linear effect models likely underestimated the mortality burden due to short-term exposure to PM2.5.
•The first county-level assessment of short-term PM2.5 related mortality in China.•The association between short-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality was non-linear.•A total of 169,862 additional deaths from short-term PM2.5 exposure in China in 2015.•Previous linear models might have largely underestimated the burden of mortality.
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