Summary Background Long-term disorders are the main challenge facing health-care systems worldwide, but health systems are largely configured for individual diseases rather than multimorbidity. We ...examined the distribution of multimorbidity, and of comorbidity of physical and mental health disorders, in relation to age and socioeconomic deprivation. Methods In a cross-sectional study we extracted data on 40 morbidities from a database of 1 751 841 people registered with 314 medical practices in Scotland as of March, 2007. We analysed the data according to the number of morbidities, disorder type (physical or mental), sex, age, and socioeconomic status. We defined multimorbidity as the presence of two or more disorders. Findings 42·2% (95% CI 42·1–42·3) of all patients had one or more morbidities, and 23·2% (23·08–23·21) were multimorbid. Although the prevalence of multimorbidity increased substantially with age and was present in most people aged 65 years and older, the absolute number of people with multimorbidity was higher in those younger than 65 years (210 500 vs 194 996). Onset of multimorbidity occurred 10–15 years earlier in people living in the most deprived areas compared with the most affluent, with socioeconomic deprivation particularly associated with multimorbidity that included mental health disorders (prevalence of both physical and mental health disorder 11·0%, 95% CI 10·9–11·2% in most deprived area vs 5·9%, 5·8%–6·0% in least deprived). The presence of a mental health disorder increased as the number of physical morbidities increased (adjusted odds ratio 6·74, 95% CI 6·59–6·90 for five or more disorders vs 1·95, 1·93–1·98 for one disorder), and was much greater in more deprived than in less deprived people (2·28, 2·21–2·32 vs 1·08, 1·05–1·11). Interpretation Our findings challenge the single-disease framework by which most health care, medical research, and medical education is configured. A complementary strategy is needed, supporting generalist clinicians to provide personalised, comprehensive continuity of care, especially in socioeconomically deprived areas. Funding Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office.
The escalating use of prescribed drugs has increasingly raised concerns about polypharmacy. This study aims to examine changes in rates of polypharmacy and potentially serious drug-drug interactions ...in a stable geographical population between 1995 and 2010.
This is a repeated cross-sectional analysis of community-dispensed prescribing data for all 310,000 adults resident in the Tayside region of Scotland in 1995 and 2010. The number of drug classes dispensed and the number of potentially serious drug-drug interactions (DDIs) in the previous 84 days were calculated, and age-sex standardised rates in 1995 and 2010 compared. Patient characteristics associated with receipt of ≥ 10 drugs and with the presence of one or more DDIs were examined using multilevel logistic regression to account for clustering of patients within primary care practices.
Between 1995 and 2010, the proportion of adults dispensed ≥ 5 drugs doubled to 20.8%, and the proportion dispensed ≥ 10 tripled to 5.8%. Receipt of ≥ 10 drugs was strongly associated with increasing age (20-29 years, 0.3%; ≥ 80 years, 24.0%; adjusted OR, 118.3; 95% CI, 99.5-140.7) but was also independently more common in people living in more deprived areas (adjusted OR most vs. least deprived quintile, 2.36; 95% CI, 2.22-2.51), and in people resident in a care home (adjusted OR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.65-3.13). The proportion with potentially serious drug-drug interactions more than doubled to 13% of adults in 2010, and the number of drugs dispensed was the characteristic most strongly associated with this (10.9% if dispensed 2-4 drugs vs. 80.8% if dispensed ≥ 15 drugs; adjusted OR, 26.8; 95% CI 24.5-29.3).
Drug regimens are increasingly complex and potentially harmful, and people with polypharmacy need regular review and prescribing optimisation. Research is needed to better understand the impact of multiple interacting drugs as used in real-world practice and to evaluate the effect of medicine optimisation interventions on quality of life and mortality.
The benefits of pay-for-performance schemes in improving the quality of care remain uncertain. There is little information on the effect of removing incentives from existing pay-for-performance ...schemes.
We conducted interrupted time-series analyses of electronic medical record (EMR) data from 2010 to 2017 for 12 quality-of-care indicators in the United Kingdom's Quality and Outcomes Framework for which financial incentives were removed in 2014 and 6 indicators for which incentives were maintained. We estimated the effects of removing incentives on changes in performance on quality-of-care measures.
Complete longitudinal data were available for 2819 English primary care practices with more than 20 million registered patients. There were immediate reductions in documented quality of care for all 12 indicators in the first year after the removal of financial incentives. Reductions were greatest for indicators related to health advice, with a reduction of 62.3 percentage points (95% confidence interval CI, -65.6 to -59.0) in EMR documentation of lifestyle counseling for patients with hypertension. Changes were smaller for indicators involving clinical actions that automatically update the EMR, such as laboratory testing, with a reduction of 10.7 percentage points (95% CI, -13.6 to -7.8) in control of cholesterol in patients with coronary heart disease and 12.1 percentage points (95% CI, -13.6 to -10.6) for thyroid-function testing in patients with hypothyroidism. There was little change in performance on the 6 quality measures for which incentives were maintained.
Removal of financial incentives was associated with an immediate decline in performance on quality measures. In part, the decline probably reflected changes in EMR documentation, but declines on measures involving laboratory testing suggest that incentive removal also changed the care delivered.
High-risk prescribing and preventable drug-related complications are common in primary care. We evaluated whether the rates of high-risk prescribing by primary care clinicians and the related ...clinical outcomes would be reduced by a complex intervention.
In this cluster-randomized, stepped-wedge trial conducted in Tayside, Scotland, we randomly assigned participating primary care practices to various start dates for a 48-week intervention comprising professional education, informatics to facilitate review, and financial incentives for practices to review patients' charts to assess appropriateness. The primary outcome was patient-level exposure to any of nine measures of high-risk prescribing of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or selected antiplatelet agents (e.g., NSAID prescription in a patient with chronic kidney disease or coprescription of an NSAID and an oral anticoagulant without gastroprotection). Prespecified secondary outcomes included the incidence of related hospital admissions. Analyses were performed according to the intention-to-treat principle, with the use of mixed-effect models to account for clustering in the data.
A total of 34 practices underwent randomization, 33 of which completed the study. Data were analyzed for 33,334 patients at risk at one or more points in the preintervention period and for 33,060 at risk at one or more points in the intervention period. Targeted high-risk prescribing was significantly reduced, from a rate of 3.7% (1102 of 29,537 patients at risk) immediately before the intervention to 2.2% (674 of 30,187) at the end of the intervention (adjusted odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.57 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of hospital admissions for gastrointestinal ulcer or bleeding was significantly reduced from the preintervention period to the intervention period (from 55.7 to 37.0 admissions per 10,000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.86; P=0.002), as was the rate of admissions for heart failure (from 707.7 to 513.5 admissions per 10,000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.95; P=0.02), but admissions for acute kidney injury were not (101.9 and 86.0 admissions per 10,000 person-years, respectively; rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.09; P=0.19).
A complex intervention combining professional education, informatics, and financial incentives reduced the rate of high-risk prescribing of antiplatelet medications and NSAIDs and may have improved clinical outcomes. (Funded by the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01425502.).
Remission has been identified as a top priority by people with type 2 diabetes. Remission is commonly used as an outcome in research studies; however, a widely accepted definition of remission of ...type 2 diabetes is lacking. A report on defining remission was published (but not formally endorsed) in Diabetes Care, an American Diabetes Association (ADA) journal. This Diabetes Care report remains widely used. It was the first to suggest 3 components necessary to define the presence of remission: (1) absence of glucose-lowering therapy (GLT); (2) normoglycaemia; and (3) for duration ≥1 year. Our aim is to systematically review how remission of type 2 diabetes has been defined by observational and interventional studies since publication of the 2009 report.
Four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL) were searched for studies published from 1 September 2009 to 18 July 2020 involving at least 100 participants with type 2 diabetes in their remission analysis, which examined an outcome of type 2 diabetes remission in adults ≥18 years and which had been published in English since 2009. Remission definitions were extracted and categorised by glucose-lowering therapy, glycaemic thresholds, and duration. A total of 8,966 titles/abstracts were screened, and 178 studies (165 observational and 13 interventional) from 33 countries were included. These contributed 266 definitions, of which 96 were unique. The 2009 report was referenced in 121 (45%) definitions. In total, 247 (93%) definitions required the absence of GLT, and 232 (87%) definitions specified numeric glycaemic thresholds. The most frequently used threshold was HbA1c<42 mmol/mol (6.0%) in 47 (20%) definitions. Time was frequently omitted. In this study, a total of 104 (39%) definitions defined time as a duration. The main limitations of this systematic review lie in the restriction to published studies written in English with sample sizes of over 100. Grey literature was not included in the search.
We found that there is substantial heterogeneity in the definition of type 2 diabetes remission in research studies published since 2009, at least partly reflecting ambiguity in the 2009 report. This complicates interpretation of previous research on remission of type 2 diabetes and the implications for people with type 2 diabetes. Any new consensus definition of remission should include unambiguous glycaemic thresholds and emphasise duration. Until an international consensus is reached, studies describing remission should clearly define all 3 components of remission.
PROSPERO CRD42019144619.
Frailty is characterised by a reduced resilience to adversity. In this analysis we examined changes in frailty in people aged 50+ before and during a period of austere public spending in England.
...Data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 2002-2018 were analysed. Associations between austerity and frailty were examined using (1) Multilevel interrupted times series analysis (ITSA); and (2) Accelerated longitudinal modelling comparing frailty trajectories in people of the same age in 2002 and 2012.
The analysis included 16,410 people (mean age 67 years, 55% women), with mean frailty index score of 0.16. Mean scores in women (0.16) where higher than in men (mean 0.14), and higher in the poorest tertile (mean 0.20) than the richest (mean 0.12). In the ITSA, frailty index scores increased more quickly during austerity than before, with the additional increase in frailty 2012-2018 being similar in magnitude to the difference in mean frailty score between people aged 65-69 and 70-74 years. Steeper increases in frailty after 2012 were experienced across the wealth-spectrum and in both sexes but were greater in the very oldest (80+). In the accelerated longitudinal analysis, frailty was lower in 2012 than 2002, but increased more rapidly in the 2012 cohort compared to the 2002 cohort; markedly so in people aged 80+.
The period of austerity politics was associated with steeper increases in frailty with age compared to the pre-austerity period, consistent with previously observed increases in mortality.
People with comorbidities are underrepresented in clinical trials. Empirical estimates of treatment effect modification by comorbidity are lacking, leading to uncertainty in treatment ...recommendations. We aimed to produce estimates of treatment effect modification by comorbidity using individual participant data (IPD).
We obtained IPD for 120 industry-sponsored phase 3/4 trials across 22 index conditions (n = 128,331). Trials had to be registered between 1990 and 2017 and have recruited ≥300 people. Included trials were multicentre and international. For each index condition, we analysed the outcome most frequently reported in the included trials. We performed a two-stage IPD meta-analysis to estimate modification of treatment effect by comorbidity. First, for each trial, we modelled the interaction between comorbidity and treatment arm adjusted for age and sex. Second, for each treatment within each index condition, we meta-analysed the comorbidity-treatment interaction terms from each trial. We estimated the effect of comorbidity measured in 3 ways: (i) the number of comorbidities (in addition to the index condition); (ii) presence or absence of the 6 commonest comorbid diseases for each index condition; and (iii) using continuous markers of underlying conditions (e.g., estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)). Treatment effects were modelled on the usual scale for the type of outcome (absolute scale for numerical outcomes, relative scale for binary outcomes). Mean age in the trials ranged from 37.1 (allergic rhinitis trials) to 73.0 (dementia trials) and percentage of male participants range from 4.4% (osteoporosis trials) to 100% (benign prostatic hypertrophy trials). The percentage of participants with 3 or more comorbidities ranged from 2.3% (allergic rhinitis trials) to 57% (systemic lupus erythematosus trials). We found no evidence of modification of treatment efficacy by comorbidity, for any of the 3 measures of comorbidity. This was the case for 20 conditions for which the outcome variable was continuous (e.g., change in glycosylated haemoglobin in diabetes) and for 3 conditions in which the outcomes were discrete events (e.g., number of headaches in migraine). Although all were null, estimates of treatment effect modification were more precise in some cases (e.g., sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors for type 2 diabetes-interaction term for comorbidity count 0.004, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.02) while for others credible intervals were wide (e.g., corticosteroids for asthma-interaction term -0.22, 95% CI -1.07 to 0.54). The main limitation is that these trials were not designed or powered to assess variation in treatment effect by comorbidity, and relatively few trial participants had >3 comorbidities.
Assessments of treatment effect modification rarely consider comorbidity. Our findings demonstrate that for trials included in this analysis, there was no empirical evidence of treatment effect modification by comorbidity. The standard assumption used in evidence syntheses is that efficacy is constant across subgroups, although this is often criticised. Our findings suggest that for modest levels of comorbidities, this assumption is reasonable. Thus, trial efficacy findings can be combined with data on natural history and competing risks to assess the likely overall benefit of treatments in the context of comorbidity.
Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are a common cause of adverse drug events (ADEs), but renal risks of NSAIDs are less well quantified than gastrointestinal and cardiac risks. This paper ...reports a systematic review of published population-based observational studies examining the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) associated with NSAIDs in community-dwelling adults and those with pre-existing chronic kidney disease (CKD).
MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched until June 2016, and 3789 papers screened. Ten studies reporting NSAID risk of AKI in the general population were included in random effects meta-analysis, of which five additionally reported NSAID risk in people with CKD.
In the general population, the pooled odds ratio (OR) of AKI for current NSAID exposure was 1.73 (95%CI 1.44 to 2.07), with somewhat higher risk observed in older people (OR 2.51, 95%CI 1.52 to 2.68). In people with CKD, individual study OR of AKI due to current NSAID exposure ranged from 1.12 to 5.25, with pooled estimate OR 1.63 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.19).
No study reported baseline risk of AKI in different populations meaning absolute risks could not be estimated, but baseline risk and therefore the absolute risk of NSAID exposure is likely to be higher in people with CKD and older people. Large population based studies measuring AKI using current definitions and estimating the absolute risk of harm are needed in order to better inform clinical decision making.
Cognitive impairment of various kinds is common in older people admitted to hospital, but previous research has usually focused on single conditions in highly-selected groups and has rarely examined ...associations with outcomes. This study examined prevalence and outcomes of cognitive impairment in a large unselected cohort of people aged 65+ with an emergency medical admission.
Between January 1, 2012, and June 30, 2013, admissions to a single general hospital acute medical unit aged 65+ underwent a structured specialist nurse assessment (n = 10,014). We defined 'cognitive spectrum disorder' (CSD) as any combination of delirium, known dementia, or Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT) score < 8/10. Routine data for length of stay (LOS), mortality, and readmission were linked to examine associations with outcomes.
A CSD was present in 38.5% of all patients admitted aged over 65, and in more than half of those aged over 85. Overall, 16.7% of older people admitted had delirium alone, 7.9% delirium superimposed on known dementia, 9.4% known dementia alone, and 4.5% unspecified cognitive impairment (AMT score < 8/10, no delirium, no known dementia). Of those with known dementia, 45.8% had delirium superimposed. Outcomes were worse in those with CSD compared to those without - LOS 25.0 vs. 11.8 days, 30-day mortality 13.6% vs. 9.0%, 1-year mortality 40.0% vs. 26.0%, 1-year death or readmission 62.4% vs. 51.5% (all P < 0.01). There was relatively little difference by CSD type, although people with delirium superimposed on dementia had the longest LOS, and people with dementia the worst mortality at 1 year.
CSD is common in older inpatients and associated with considerably worse outcomes, with little variation between different types of CSD. Healthcare systems should systematically identify and develop care pathways for older people with CSD admitted as medical emergencies, and avoid only focusing on condition-specific pathways such as those for dementia or delirium alone.
A systematic understanding of how multimorbidity has been constructed and measured is unavailable. This review aimed to examine the definition and measurement of multimorbidity in peer-reviewed ...studies internationally.
We systematically reviewed studies on multimorbidity, via a search of nine bibliographic databases (Ovid PsycINFO, Embase, Global Health, and MEDLINE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL Plus, Scopus, and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global), from inception to Jan 21, 2020. Reference lists and tracked citations of retrieved articles were hand-searched. Eligible studies were full-text articles measuring multimorbidity for any purpose in community, primary care, care home, or hospital populations receiving a non-specialist service. Abstracts, qualitative research, and case series were excluded. Two reviewers independently reviewed the retrieved studies with conflicts resolved by discussion or a third reviewer, and a single researcher extracted data from published papers. To assess our objectives of how multimorbidity has been measured and examine variation in the chronic conditions included (in terms of number and type), we used descriptive analysis (frequencies, cross-tabulation, and negative binomial regression) to summarise the characteristics of multimorbidity studies and measures (study setting, source of morbidity data, study population, primary study purpose, and multimorbidity measure type). This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD420201724090.
566 studies were included in our review, of which 206 (36·4%) did not report a reference definition for multimorbidity and 73 (12·9%) did not report the conditions their measure included. The number of conditions included in measures ranged from two to 285 (median 17 IQR 11–23). 452 (79·9%) studies reported types of condition within a single multimorbidity measure; most included at least one cardiovascular condition (441 97·6% of 452 studies), metabolic and endocrine condition (440 97·3%), respiratory condition (422 93·4%), musculoskeletal condition (396 87·6%), or mental health condition (355 78·5%) in their measure of multimorbidity. Chronic infections (123 27·2%), haematological conditions (110 24·3%), ear, nose, and throat conditions (107 23·7%), skin conditions (70 15·5%), oral conditions (19 4·2%), and congenital conditions (14 3·1%) were uncommonly included. Only eight individual conditions were included by more than half of studies in the multimorbidity measure used (diabetes, stroke, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, coronary heart disease, chronic kidney disease, and heart failure), with individual mental health conditions under-represented. Of the 566 studies, 419 were rated to be of moderate risk of bias, 107 of high risk of bias, and 40 of low risk of bias according to the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool.
Measurement of multimorbidity is poorly reported and highly variable. Consistent reporting of measure definitions should be required by journals, and consensus studies are needed to define core and study-dependent conditions to include in measures of multimorbidity.
Health Data Research UK.
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