In this article we examine which farmers would be early entrants into weather‐index insurance markets in Ethiopia, were such markets to develop on a large scale. We do this by examining the ...determinants of willingness to pay for weather insurance among 1,400 Ethiopian households that have been tracked for 15 years as part of the Ethiopian Rural household Survey. This provides both historical and current information with which to assess the determinants of demand. We find that educated, wealthier individuals are more likely to purchase insurance. Risk aversion is associated with low insurance take‐up suggesting that models of technology adoption can inform the purchase and spread of weather index insurance. We also assess how willingness to pay varied as two key characteristics of the contract were varied and found that basis risk reduces demand for insurance particularly when the price of the contract is high, and that provision of insurance through groups is preferred by female headed households and individuals with lower levels of education.
This article analyzes the demand for a simple rainfall-based weather insurance product among farmers in rural India. We explore the predictions of a standard expected utility theory framework on the ...nature of demand in terms of price, the basis of the hedge, and risk aversion using data from a randomized control trial. We find that demand behaves as predicted: it falls with price and basis risk and is hump-shaped in risk aversion, with price sensitivity decreasing at higher levels of basis risk. We estimate a negative price elasticity of 0.58 and find that doubling the distance to a reference weather station decreases demand by 18%. These results indicate that improving pricing and quality of insurance products can directly increase demand. In addition, we examine the impact of insurance training relative to other mechanisms designed to increase understanding. The evidence suggests that increased incentives to learn or learning by using are more effective at increasing both understanding and demand. Finally, we contribute to the scarce evidence on the demand for insurance over time. In terms of our main interventions, we find that the effect of premium subsidies persists over time, while the impact of investments in new weather stations diminishes and the effect of increased training in the first season seems to disappear during the second season. Importantly, while having previously purchased insurance does not encourage future uptake, receiving a payout does. This could reflect issues of trust in the product or the insurance company, and constitutes an important topic for future research.
We show theoretically that the presence of basis risk in index insurance makes it a complement to informal risk sharing, implying that index insurance crowds-in risk sharing and leading to a ...prediction that demand will be higher among groups of individuals that can share risk. We report results from Ethiopia from a first attempt to market weather insurance to informal risk-sharing groups. The groups were offered training on risk management and insurance. We randomized the content of training provided to group leaders, with some sessions focusing on the benefits of informally sharing idiosyncratic basis risk. Consistent with learning informed by the theoretical results, we found that members of groups whose leaders had received training that emphasized risk-sharing had considerably higher uptake. We find that this effect can be explained either by a more careful selection of training participants by leaders or a direct impact of the treatment on insurance demand.
•We show theoretically that index insurance is a complement to informal risk sharing.•We report results from a first attempt to market weather insurance to informal groups.•Training that emphasized risk-sharing resulted in considerably higher uptake.•This effect could be a result of more careful selection of members or a direct impact.
This study assesses both the demand for and effectiveness of an index insurance product designed to help smallholder farmers in Bangladesh manage crop production risk during the monsoon season. ...Villages were randomized into either an insurance treatment or a comparison group, and discounts and rebates were randomly allocated across treatment villages to encourage insurance take-up and to allow for the estimation of the price-elasticity of insurance demand. Among those offered insurance, we find demand to be fairly price elastic, with discounts significantly more successful in stimulating demand than rebates. Purchasing insurance yields both ex ante risk management effects as well as ex post income effects on agricultural production practices. The risk management effects lead to an expansion of cultivated area with concomitant increases in agricultural input expenditures during the monsoon season. The income effects lead to more intensive rice production during the subsequent dry season, with more intensive use of both irrigation and fertilizers, resulting in higher yields and higher total rice production.
•We evaluate a hybrid index insurance product in northwestern Bangladesh.•Impacts include both ex ante risk mitigation effects and ex post income effects.•Risk mitigation effects: expanded, diverse production; higher investments in inputs.•Income effects: expanded rice production during the dry season.•Income effects: intensified use of fertilizers; higher yields.
Smallholder agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is largely exposed to pervasive market failures, translating into missed opportunities and sub-optimal economic behavior. These failures can partly be ...traced to the importance of economies of scale in procuring inputs and marketing produce, where smallholders face disproportionately high transaction costs. Producer organizations could help to lessen transaction costs; however, only a few farmers in Uganda sell through them. We introduce two interventions aimed at promoting marketing via producer organizations: cash on delivery, and information on sales, and analyze their impacts in an RCT design: We find that providing cash on delivery increases the probability that a member chooses to sell through the group, and hence the volumes bulked by each group. This increase in volumes appears to have enabled groups to secure higher prices for their produce. No significant effect could be found for providing information on sales.
Using detailed survey data from Uganda, this article examines whether coffee producers sell to itinerant traders or directly to markets, where they can get a higher price but must incur a transport ...cost. We find that selling to the market is more likely when the quantity sold is large and the market is close by. Wealthy farmers are less likely to sell to the market, possibly because the shadow value of their time is higher. But if they have a large quantity of coffee for sale, they are more likely to sell it to the market. They are also more likely to travel to a distant market. These findings are consistent with their better ability to pay for public transportation. We find no evidence that the decision to sell at the farmgate is driven by a self-control motive.
Abstract
We investigate whether the prospect of redistribution hinders the formation of efficiency-enhancing groups. We conduct an experiment in a Kenyan slum, Ugandan villages, and a UK university ...town. We test, in an anonymous setting with no feedback, whether subjects join a group that increases their endowment but exposes them to one of three redistributive actions: stealing, giving, or burning. We find that exposure to redistributive options among group members operates as a disincentive to join a group. This finding obtains under all three treatments—including when the pressure to redistribute is intrinsic. However the nature of the redistribution affects the magnitude of the impact. Giving has the least impact on the decision to join a group, while forced redistribution through stealing or burning acts as a much larger deterrent to group membership. These findings are common across all three subject pools, but African subjects are particularly reluctant to join a group in the burning treatment, indicating strong reluctance to expose themselves to destruction by others.
Using detailed data from three simultaneous surveys of producers, traders, and exporters, this paper examines the transmission of international coffee prices through the domestic value chain in ...Uganda. We find that producer price fluctuations are inconsistent with constant transaction costs. We investigate three possible explanations for this finding: storage and contango, marketing costs that increase with price, and trader entry that raises search time. We test and reject the storage and marketing costs explanation, but we find some evidence of trader entry in response to a rise in export price. Our findings suggest that small itinerant traders enter in response to an export price increase, probably taking advantage of farmers’ ignorance of the rise in wholesale price.
•We quantify rain and price shock impacts on welfare in Ethiopia using objective data.•We simulate future consumption based on estimated shock impacts and probabilities.•We find that rural ...vulnerability is higher than poverty; the reverse in urban areas.•This reflects a baseline with relatively good rainfall but high food price inflation.
While the measurement and determinants of poverty have been widely studied, vulnerability, or the threat of future poverty, has been more difficult to investigate due to data paucity. We combine nationally representative household data with objective drought and price information to quantify and investigate causes of vulnerability to poverty in Ethiopia. Previous estimates have relied on self-reported shocks and variation in outcomes within a survey, which is inadequate for shocks such as weather and prices that vary more across time than space. We used historical distributions of climate and price shocks in each district to simulate the probable distribution of future consumption for individual households and use these quantify vulnerability to poverty. We find that many Ethiopians are unable to protect their consumption against lack of rainfall and sudden increases in food prices. A moderate drought causes a 9% reduction in consumption for many rural households and recent high inflation has caused a 14% reduction in the consumption of uneducated households in urban areas. We also find that the vulnerability of rural households is considerably higher than that of urban households, despite realized poverty rates being fairly similar. This reflects the fact that the household survey in 2011 was conducted during a year of good rainfall but rapid food price inflation. The results highlight the need for caution in using a snapshot of poverty to target programs, as underlying rates of vulnerability can be quite different from the poverty rate captured at one point in time. The results also suggest that significant welfare gains can be made from risk management in both rural and urban areas.
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