We describe the baseline model configuration and simulation characteristics of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s Land Model version 4.1 (LM4.1), which builds on component and coupled ...model developments over 2013–2019 for the coupled carbon‐chemistry‐climate Earth System Model Version 4.1 (ESM4.1) simulation as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Analysis of ESM4.1/LM4.1 is focused on biophysical and biogeochemical processes and interactions with climate. Key features include advanced vegetation dynamics and multi‐layer canopy energy and moisture exchanges, daily fire, land use representation, and dynamic atmospheric dust coupling. We compare LM4.1 performance in the GFDL Earth System Model (ESM) configuration ESM4.1 to the previous generation component LM3.0 in the ESM2G configuration. ESM4.1/LM4.1 provides significant improvement in the treatment of ecological processes from GFDL's previous generation models. However, ESM4.1/LM4.1 likely overestimates the influence of land use and land cover change on vegetation characteristics, particularly on pasturelands, as it overestimates the competitiveness of grasses versus trees in the tropics, and as a result, underestimates present‐day biomass and carbon uptake in comparison to observations.
Plain Language Summary
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has developed a new Land Model (LM4.1) as part of its 4th generation coupled model development. This model includes advances from the previous generation and introduces a new vegetation demography model, multi‐layer canopy, plant hydraulics, fire, and land use representation as well as dynamic atmospheric dust coupling. Coupled within an Earth System Model (ESM4.1), LM4.1 features an improved representation of many ecological processes from the previous generation of GFDL ESMs.
Key Points
A new land model LM4.1 is developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for the next‐generation Earth System Model (ESM) ESM4.1
LM4.1 integrates age‐height structured vegetation dynamics, multi‐layer canopy‐soil‐snow energy exchanges, and prognostic fires and mineral dust
ESM4.1/LM4.1 improves patterns of land surface climate and carbon cycle compared to the previous generation GFDL model ESM2G/LM3.0
Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under ...four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long‐term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.
Key Points
CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery
Multimodel ozone agrees well with observations but individual models deviate
Future climate is sensitive to rates of both ozone recovery and GHG increases
In this two‐part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under ...development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part 1, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode—with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice distribution—is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top‐of‐atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part 2, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.
Key Points
A description is provided of the AM4.0/LM4.0 model that will serve as a base for a new set of GFDL/NOAA climate and Earth system models
The simulation quality in AMIP mode is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations
The model's Cess sensitivity and effective radiative forcing are presented
Prevention of Depressive Symptoms in Adolescents Horowitz, Jason L; Garber, Judy; Ciesla, Jeffrey A ...
Journal of consulting and clinical psychology,
10/2007, Letnik:
75, Številka:
5
Journal Article
Recenzirano
This study evaluated the efficacy of 2 programs for preventing depressive symptoms in adolescents. Participants were 380 high school students randomly assigned to a cognitive-behavioral program (CB), ...an interpersonal psychotherapy-adolescent skills training program (IPT-AST), or a no-intervention control. The interventions involved eight 90-min weekly sessions run in small groups during wellness classes. At postintervention, students in both the CB and IPT-AST groups reported significantly lower levels of depressive symptoms than did those in the no-intervention group, controlling for baseline depression scores; the 2 intervention groups did not differ significantly from each other. The effect sizes, using Cohen's
d
, for the CB intervention and the IPT-AST intervention were 0.37 and 0.26, respectively. Differences between control and intervention groups were largest for adolescents with high levels of depressive symptoms at baseline. For a high-risk subgroup, defined as having scored in the top 25th percentile on the baseline depression measure, the effect sizes for the CB and the IPT-AST interventions were 0.89 and 0.84, respectively. For the whole sample, sociotropy and achievement orientation moderated the effect of the interventions. Intervention effects were short term and were not maintained at 6-month follow-up.
Emissions of aerosols and their precursors are declining due to policies enacted to protect human health, yet we currently lack a full understanding of the magnitude, spatiotemporal pattern, ...statistical significance, and physical mechanisms of precipitation responses to aerosol reductions. We quantify the global and regional precipitation responses to U.S. SO2 emission reductions using three fully coupled chemistry‐climate models: Community Earth System Model version 1, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3, and Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2. We contrast 200 year (or longer) simulations in which anthropogenic U.S. sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are set to zero with present‐day control simulations to assess the aerosol, cloud, and precipitation response to U.S. SO2 reductions. In all three models, reductions in aerosol optical depth up to 70% and cloud droplet number column concentration up to 60% occur over the eastern U.S. and extend over the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation responses occur both locally and remotely, with the models consistently showing an increase in most regions considered. We find a northward shift of the tropical rain belt location of up to 0.35° latitude especially near the Sahel, where the rainy season length and intensity are significantly enhanced in two of the three models. This enhancement is the result of greater warming in the Northern versus Southern Hemispheres, which acts to shift the Intertropical Convergence Zone northward, delivering additional wet season rainfall to the Sahel. Two of our three models thus imply a previously unconsidered benefit of continued U.S. SO2 reductions for Sahel precipitation.
Key Points
Models show that U.S. SO2 reductions increase precipitation globally and regionally
Decreasing U.S. sulfate shifts the ITCZ northward in two of three models
Wet season Sahel precipitation may increase up to 10% from 2000 levels
Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state‐of‐the‐art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a ...wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing “optimistic,” “likely,” and “pessimistic” options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of −50, 180, and 300 mW m−2, compared to a CO2 forcing over the same time period of 800–1100 mW m−2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short‐ to medium‐term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by ±5 ppbv via a variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those involving water vapor and stratosphere‐troposphere exchange. This level of climate change also reduces the methane lifetime by around 4%. The ensemble mean year 2000 tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production, chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratospheric input fluxes of 5100, 4650, 1000, and 550 Tg(O3) yr−1, respectively. These values are significantly different to the mean budget documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). The mean ozone burden (340 Tg(O3)) is 10% larger than the IPCC TAR estimate, while the mean ozone lifetime (22 days) is 10% shorter. Results from individual models show a correlation between ozone burden and lifetime, and each model's ozone burden and lifetime respond in similar ways across the emissions scenarios. The response to climate change is much less consistent. Models show more variability in the tropics compared to midlatitudes. Some of the most uncertain areas of the models include treatments of deep tropical convection, including lightning NOx production; isoprene emissions from vegetation and isoprene's degradation chemistry; stratosphere‐troposphere exchange; biomass burning; and water vapor concentrations.
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