Spatial variability in yields and greenhouse gas emissions from soils has been identified as a key source of variability in life cycle assessments (LCAs) of agricultural products such as cellulosic ...ethanol. This study aims to conduct an LCA of cellulosic ethanol production from switchgrass in a way that captures this spatial variability and tests results for sensitivity to using spatially averaged results. The Environment Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was used to calculate switchgrass yields, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from crop production in southern Wisconsin and Michigan at the watershed scale. These data were combined with cellulosic ethanol production data via ammonia fiber expansion and dilute acid pretreatment methods and region-specific electricity production data into an LCA model of eight ethanol production scenarios. Standard deviations from the spatial mean yields and soil emissions were used to test the sensitivity of net energy ratio, global warming potential intensity, and eutrophication and acidification potential metrics to spatial variability. Substantial variation in the eutrophication potential was also observed when nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from soils were varied. This work illustrates the need for spatially explicit agricultural production data in the LCA of biofuels and other agricultural products.
Assessing and improving the sustainability of dairy production is essential to secure future food production. Implementation of Beneficial Management Practices (BMP) can mitigate GHG emissions and ...nutrient losses and reduce the environmental impact of dairy production, but comprehensive, whole-farm studies that evaluate the efficacy of multiple BMPs to reduce multiple environmental impacts and that include an assessment of productivity and farm profitability, are scarce. We used a process-based model (IFSM) to assess the efficacy of (10+) individual BMPs to reduce the carbon (C) footprint expressed per unit of milk produced of two model dairy farms, a 1500 cow farm and a 150 cow farm, with farming practices representative for the Great Lakes region. In addition to the C footprint, we assessed the effect of BMP implementation on the reactive nitrogen (N) footprint and total phosphorus (P) losses (per unit of milk produced), as well as milk production and farm profitability. We evaluated individual farm-component specific BMPs, that is, 5 dietary manipulations, 3 (150 cow farm) or 4 (1500 cow farm) manure interventions, and 6 field interventions, as well as an integrated whole-farm mitigation strategy based on the best performing individual BMPs. Our results show that reductions in the C footprint expressed per unit of milk are greatest with individual manure management interventions (4–20% reduction) followed by dietary manipulations (0–12% reduction) for both farm types. Field management BMPs had a modest effect on reducing this footprint (0–3% reduction), but showed substantial potential to reduce the reactive N footprint (0–19% reduction) and P losses (1–47% reduction). We found that the whole-farm mitigation strategy can substantially reduce the C footprint, reactive N footprint and total P loss of both farms with predicted reductions of approximately 41%, 41% and 46% respectively, while increasing milk production and the net return per cow by approximately 11% and 27%. To contextualize IFSM predictions for the whole-farm mitigation, we compared components of IFSM predictions to those of three other process-based models (CNCPS, Manure-DNDC and EPIC). While we did observe differences in model predictions for individual flows (particularly P erosion and P leaching losses), with exception of the total P loss, the models generally predicted similar overall mitigation potentials. Overall, our analysis shows that an integrated set of BMPs can be implemented to reduce GHG emissions and nutrient losses of dairy farms in the Great Lakes region without sacrificing productivity or profit to the farmer.
•We used a process-based model to assess multiple (10+) BMPs in a whole-farm context•We simulated 2 dairy farms with practices representative of the Great Lakes region•Implementation of integrated BMP strategies can substantially reduce•The C footprint (~40%), the reactive N footprint (~40%) and total P loss (~45%)•While increasing milk production (~10%) and the farms profit potential (~25%)
Modeling the life cycle of fuel pathways for cellulosic ethanol (CE) can help identify logistical barriers and anticipated impacts for the emerging commercial CE industry. Such models contain high ...amounts of variability, primarily due to the varying nature of agricultural production but also because of limitations in the availability of data at the local scale, resulting in the typical practice of using average values. In this study, 12 spatially explicit, cradle-to-refinery gate CE pathways were developed that vary by feedstock (corn stover, switchgrass, and Miscanthus), nitrogen application rate (higher, lower), pretreatment method (ammonia fiber expansion AFEX, dilute acid), and co-product treatment method (mass allocation, sub-division), in which feedstock production was modeled at the watershed scale over a nine-county area in Southwestern Michigan. When comparing feedstocks, the model showed that corn stover yielded higher global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), and eutrophication potential (EP) than the perennial feedstocks of switchgrass and Miscanthus, on an average per area basis. Full life cycle results per MJ of produced ethanol demonstrated more mixed results, with corn stover-derived CE scenarios that use sub-division as a co-product treatment method yielding similarly favorable outcomes as switchgrass- and Miscanthus-derived CE scenarios. Variability was found to be greater between feedstocks than watersheds. Additionally, scenarios using dilute acid pretreatment had more favorable results than those using AFEX pretreatment.
Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global “breadbaskets”. A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some ...recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.
Carbon Cost of Applying Nitrogen Fertilizer Izaurralde, R. César; McGill, William B.; Rosenberg, Norman J. ...
Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science),
05/2000, Letnik:
288, Številka:
5467
Journal Article
In this paper, the authors comment on several mistakes made in a journal paper "Modeling Miscanthus in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to Simulate Its Water Quality Effects As a Bioenergy ...Crop" published on Environmental Scienece & Technology, based on field measurements from Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Carbon Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems, and published literature. Our comment has led to the development of another version of SWAT to include better process based description of radiation use efficiency and root-shoot growth.
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. ...However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
To meet the nutritional and environmental needs of a growing population, dairy producers must increase milk production while minimizing the farm-gate environmental impact and adapting to the effects ...of climate change.
Here we comprehensively assess the effects of climate change on the environmental performance and productivity of three typical US dairy farms, and evaluate the potential benefits of adaptation strategies and implementation of Beneficial Management Practices (BMPs) for mitigating these effects and the potential increases in environmental impact.
Using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM), we predicted the productivity and environmental impact of these baseline farms under current emission scenarios and climate projections of 6 general circulation models (GCM), for high and low emission scenarios. We simulated farm-specific BMPs for current and future climate conditions for both unadapted and ‘adapted’ field cultivation plans, based on experiences from other climate locations. Finally, the IFSM predictions were compared to those of two other process-based models to test result robustness.
We find that the environmental impact of the three northern US dairy farms (New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) generally increases by mid-century, if no mitigation measures are taken. Overall, feed production is maintained, as decreased corn grain yields are compensated by increased forage yields. Adoption of farm-specific Beneficial Management Practices can substantially reduce the GHG emissions and nutrient losses from dairy farms under current climate conditions and stabilize the environmental impact in future climate conditions, while maintaining farm productivity (milk and feed production). A comparison of three models corroborates the estimated reductions in methane and ammonia emissions associated with BMPs, as well as the relative trend in P-loss reduction.
This study provides a holistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on dairy production systems focusing on both feed production and environmental impacts. It demonstrates the interest of BMPs to both reduce GHG emissions and contribute to more resilient farming systems in a changing climate.
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•Absent mitigation measures, the environmental impact of northern US dairy production increases by 2050•Feed production is maintained as reduced corn grain yields are compensated by increased forage yields•Adoption of farm-specific BMPs can stabilize the environmental impact in future climate conditions•Farm productivity (milk and feed production) in future climate conditions is maintained under BMP implementation
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