The first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 in North America was identified in Washington state on January 21, 2020. We aimed to quantify the number and temporal trends of out-of-state introductions of ...SARS-CoV-2 into Washington.
We conducted a molecular epidemiologic analysis of 11,422 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from GISAID sampled between December 2019 and September 2020. We used maximum parsimony ancestral state reconstruction methods on time-calibrated phylogenies to enumerate introductions/exports, their likely geographic source (US, non-US, and between eastern and western Washington), and estimated date of introduction. To incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into our estimates, we conducted 5,000 replicate analyses by generating 25 random time-stratified samples of non-Washington reference sequences, 20 random polytomy resolutions, and 10 random resolutions of the reconstructed ancestral state.
We estimated a minimum 287 introductions (range 244-320) into Washington and 204 exported lineages (range 188-227) of SARS-CoV-2 out of Washington. Introductions began in mid-January and peaked on March 29, 2020. Lineages with the Spike D614G variant accounted for the majority (88%) of introductions. Overall, 61% (range 55-65%) of introductions into Washington likely originated from a source elsewhere within the US, while the remaining 39% (range 35-45%) likely originated from outside of the US. Intra-state transmission accounted for 65% and 28% of introductions into eastern and western Washington, respectively.
The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Washington was continually seeded by a large number of introductions. Our findings highlight the importance of genomic surveillance to monitor for emerging variants due to high levels of inter- and intra-state transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
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Objective Microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity (MIAC) is common in early preterm labor and is associated with maternal and neonatal infectious morbidity. MIAC is usually occult and is reliably ...detected only with amniocentesis. We sought to develop a noninvasive test to predict MIAC based on protein biomarkers in cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) in a cohort of women with preterm labor (phase 1) and to validate the test in an independent cohort (phase 2). Study Design This was a prospective study of women with preterm labor who had amniocentesis to screen for MIAC. MIAC was defined by positive culture and/or 16S ribosomal DNA results. Nine candidate CVF proteins were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Logistic regression was used to identify combinations of up to 3 proteins that could accurately classify the phase 1 cohort (N = 108) into those with or without MIAC. The best models, selected by area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve in phase 1, included various combinations of interleukin (IL)-6, chemokine (C-X-C motif) ligand 1 (CXCL1), alpha fetoprotein, and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1. Model performance was then tested in the phase 2 cohort (N = 306). Results MIAC was present in 15% of cases in phase 1 and 9% in phase 2. A 3-marker CVF model using IL-6 plus CXCL1 plus insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 had AUC 0.87 in phase 1 and 0.78 in phase 2. Two-marker models using IL-6 plus CXCL1 or alpha fetoprotein plus CXCL1 performed similarly in phase 2 (AUC 0.78 and 0.75, respectively), but were not superior to CVF IL-6 alone (AUC 0.80). A cutoff value of CVF IL-6 ≥463 pg/mL (which had 81% sensitivity in phase 1) predicted MIAC in phase 2 with sensitivity 79%, specificity 78%, positive predictive value 38%, and negative predictive value 97%. Conclusion High levels of IL-6 in CVF are strongly associated with MIAC. If developed into a bedside test or rapid laboratory assay, cervicovaginal IL-6 might be useful in selecting patients in whom the probability of MIAC is high enough to warrant amniocentesis or transfer to a higher level of care. Such a test might also guide selection of potential subjects for treatment trials.
Although cytomegalovirus viral load is commonly used to guide pre-emptive therapy in the post-transplantation setting, few data are available correlating viraemia with clinical endpoints. We ...therefore investigated the association between cytomegalovirus viral load and mortality in the first year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation.
In this retrospective cohort study, we included patients from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, WA, USA, who received an allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation between Jan 1, 2007, and Feb 28, 2013, were cytomegalovirus seropositive or had a seropositive donor, and underwent weekly plasma cytomegalovirus monitoring by PCR through to day 100 post-transplantation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of cytomegalovirus viral load at different thresholds with overall mortality by 1 year post-transplantation, adjusting for the use of pre-emptive therapy and other factors such as neutropenia, and graft-versus-host disease.
Of the 1037 patients initially selected for inclusion in this cohort, 87 (8%) patients were excluded because of missing cytomegalovirus testing and 24 (2%) were excluded because of their participation in cytomegalovirus prophylaxis trials. In the remaining 926 patients included in this study, the cumulative overall mortality was 30·0% (95% CI 26·9-33·0) 1 year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. 95 patients developed cytomegalovirus disease; death was directly attributable to cytomegalovirus disease in three (1%) of 263 patients who died in the first year after transplantation. A cytomegalovirus viral load of 250 IU/mL or greater was associated with increased risk of early (day 0-60 post-transplantation) death (adjusted hazard ratio HR 19·8, 95% CI 9·6-41·1). The risk was attenuated after day 60 (adjusted HR 1·8, 95% CI 1·3-2·3). Similar associations were noted for higher cytomegalovirus viral load thresholds.
Cytomegalovirus viraemia is associated with an increased risk of overall mortality in the first year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation, independent of the use of pre-emptive therapy, and with evidence of a positive dose-response relationship. These data indicate the suitability of viral load as a surrogate clinical endpoint for clinical trials for cytomegalovirus vaccines, biologics, and drugs.
Merck and Co, National Institutes of Health.
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