On 6 August, 2012, Upper Te Maari Crater, Tongariro volcano, New Zealand, erupted for the first time in over one hundred years. Multiple vents were activated during the hydrothermal eruption, ...ejecting blocks up to 2.3km and impacting ~2.6km of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing (TAC) hiking track. Ballistic impact craters were mapped to calibrate a 3D ballistic trajectory model for the eruption. This was further used to inform future ballistic hazard. Orthophoto mapping revealed 3587 impact craters with a mean diameter of 2.4m. However, field mapping of accessible regions indicated an average of at least four times more observable impact craters and a smaller mean crater diameter of 1.2m. By combining the orthophoto and ground-truthed impact frequency and size distribution data, we estimate that approximately 13,200 ballistic projectiles were generated during the eruption. The 3D ballistic trajectory model and a series of inverse models were used to constrain the eruption directions, angles and velocities. When combined with eruption observations and geophysical observations, the model indicates that the blocks were ejected in five variously directed eruption pulses, in total lasting 19s. The model successfully reproduced the mapped impact distribution using a mean initial particle velocity of 200m/s with an accompanying average gas flow velocity over a 400m radius of 150m/s. We apply the calibrated model to assess ballistic hazard from the August eruption along the TAC. By taking the field mapped spatial density of impacts and an assumption that an average ballistic impact will cause serious injury or death (casualty) over an 8m2 area, we estimate that the probability of casualty ranges from 1% to 16% along the affected track (assuming an eruption during the time of exposure). Future ballistic hazard and probabilities of casualty along the TAC are also assessed through application of the calibrated model. We model a magnitude larger eruption and illustrate that the probability of casualty could reach 100% in localised areas of the track. In contrast, ballistics ejected from a smaller eruption did not reach the track as was the case with the 21 November 2012 eruption. The calibrated ballistic model can therefore be used to improve management of ballistic hazards both at Tongariro and also, once recalibrated, to other volcanoes worldwide.
•Field mapping indicated four times more ballistic impacts than mapping by orthophoto.•Ballistic impact mapping revealed multiple sources and pulses of eruption.•Inverse modelling reproduced the mapped ballistic impact distribution.•Probability of casualty on the TAC reached 16% in the August 2012 Te Maari eruption.•Future ballistic hazard and risk can be analysed using this calibrated model.
Liver fibrosis is a progressive pathological process involving inflammation and extracellular matrix deposition. Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4), also known as CD26, is a cell surface glycoprotein and ...serine protease. DPP4 binds to fibronectin, can inactivate specific chemokines, incretin hormone and neuropeptides, and influences cell adhesion and migration. Such properties suggest a pro‐fibrotic role for this peptidase but this hypothesis needs in vivo examination. Experimental liver injury was induced with carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) in DPP4 gene knockout (gko) mice. DPP4 gko had less liver fibrosis and inflammation and fewer B cell clusters than wild type mice in the fibrosis model. DPP4 inhibitor‐treated mice also developed less liver fibrosis. DNA microarray and PCR showed that many immunoglobulin (Ig) genes and some metabolism‐associated transcripts were differentially expressed in the gko strain compared with wild type. CCl4‐treated DPP4 gko livers had more IgM+ and IgG+ intrahepatic lymphocytes, and fewer CD4+, IgD+ and CD21+ intrahepatic lymphocytes. These data suggest that DPP4 is pro‐fibrotic in CCl4‐induced liver fibrosis and that the mechanisms of DPP4 pro‐fibrotic action include energy metabolism, B cells, NK cells and CD4+ cells.
The polychaete Pectinaria koreni exhibits a complex life cycle characterized by non-overlapping generations and widespread larval dispersal. To explore how “local” metapopulation genetic structure ...varies spatially and temporally during population turnover, we combined observations on demography, larval dispersal through hydrodynamic modelling and population genetics of successive age cohorts in the Baie de Seine (eastern English Channel, France). Mature adults (March), newly settled (July) and later-stage juveniles (September) were sampled in 2003 on the edge and in the main demes of the metapopulation. Demes displayed an asynchronous dynamics due to variations in habitat quality affecting reproductive timing (e.g. three distinct spawning events observed) and in local larval supply linked to temporal fluctuations of hydrodynamism. Two-source populations were identified among dense areas with the greatest larval retention and self-recruitment rates: one with a single recruitment event, stable temporal genetic variation and a strong spatial genetic re-homogenization during turnover, and the other with two recruitment events and significant allele frequency changes over time. Sink habitats displayed single recruitment event and experienced strong inter-generational (juveniles vs adults) genetic changes due to genetic drift associated with strong winter mortalities. Altogether, results suggested that adult spawning asynchrony and sweepstakes reproductive success, together with genetic drift, played a greater role than hydrodynamics itself in determining effective recruitment rates at some sites and generating genetic patchiness.
The historic processes which have led to the present‐day patterns of genetic structure in the marine coastal fauna of the Northeast Atlantic are still poorly understood. While tectonic uplifts and ...changes in sea level may have caused large‐scale vicariance, warmer conditions during glacial maxima may have allowed pockets of diversity to persist to a much wider extent than in the Northwestern Atlantic. The large‐scale geographic distribution of deeply divergent lineages of the coastal polychaete tubeworms Pectinaria koreni (two clades) and Owenia fusiformis (three clades) were compared using a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I gene (mtCOI). All lineages were present along the biogeographic transition zone on the north coast of Brittany (France) and we found evidence pointing towards congruence in the timing of cladogenic events between Pectinaria sp. (P. auricoma/P. belgica and P. koreni) and Owenia sp., suggesting a shared history of vicariant events. More conserved 16SrRNA sequences obtained from four species of Pectinariidae together with mtCOI sequences of P. koreni seem consistent with an initial establishment of pectinariids in the north, and a southward colonization of the Northeast Atlantic. Phylogeographic patterns in O. fusiformis were also consistent with a north/south pattern of lineage splitting and congruent levels of divergence were detected between lineages of both species. We observed signatures of both persistence in small northern glacial refugia, and of northwards range expansion from regions situated closer to the Mediterranean. However, whether the recolonization of the Northeast Atlantic by both species actually reflects separate interglacial periods is unclear with regards to the lack of molecular clock calibration in coastal polychaete species.
Two experiments evaluated the effects of corn residue harvest method on animal performance and diet digestibility. Experiment 1 was designed as a 2 × 2 + 1 factorial arrangement of treatments using ...60 individually fed crossbred steers (280 kg SD 32 initial BW; = 12). Factors were the corn residue harvest method (high-stem and conventional) and supplemental RUP at 2 concentrations (0 and 3.3% diet DM). A third harvest method (low-stem) was also evaluated, but only in diets containing supplemental RUP at 3.3% diet DM because of limitations in the amount of available low-stem residue. Therefore, the 3 harvest methods were compared only in diets containing supplemental RUP. In Exp. 2, 9 crossbred wethers were blocked by BW (42.4 kg SD 7 initial BW) and randomly assigned to diets containing corn residue harvested 1 of 3 ways (low-stem, high-stem, and conventional). In Exp. 1, steers fed the low-stem residue diet had greater ADG compared with the steers fed conventionally harvested corn residue ( = 0.03; 0.78 vs. 0.63 kg), whereas steers fed high-stem residue were intermediate ( > 0.17; 0.69 kg), not differing from either conventional or low-stem residues. Results from in vitro OM digestibility suggest that low-stem residue had the greatest ( < 0.01) amount of digestible OM compared with the other 2 residue harvest methods, which did not differ ( = 0.32; 55.0, 47.8, and 47.1% for low-stem, high-stem, and conventional residues, respectively). There were no differences in RUP content (40% of CP) and RUP digestibility (60%) among the 3 residues ( ≥ 0.35). No interactions were observed between harvest method and the addition of RUP ( ≥ 0.12). The addition of RUP tended to result in improved ADG (0.66 ± 0.07 vs. 0.58 ± 0.07 for supplemental RUP and no RUP, respectively; = 0.08) and G:F (0.116 ± 0.006 vs. 0.095 ± 0.020 for supplemental RUP and no RUP, respectively; = 0.02) compared with similar diets without the additional RUP. In Exp. 2, low-stem residue had greater DM and OM digestibility and DE ( < 0.01) than high-stem and conventional residues, which did not differ ( ≥ 0.63). Low-stem residue also had the greatest NDF digestibility (NDFD; < 0.01), whereas high-stem residue had greater NDFD than conventional residue ( < 0.01). Digestible energy was greatest for low-stem residue ( < 0.05) and did not differ between high-stem and conventional residues ( = 0.50). Reducing the proportion of stem in the bale through changes in the harvest method increased the nutritive quality of corn residue.
Mortality and the burden of diseases worldwide continue to reach substantial numbers with societal development and urbanization. In the face of decline in human health, early detection of complex ...diseases is indispensable, albeit challenging. In this review, we document the research carried out thus far on the appearance of complex diseases marked by a critical transition or a sudden shift from a healthy state to a disease state. The theory of resilience and critical slowing down can provide practical tools to forecast the onset of various fatal and perpetuating diseases. However, critical transitions in diseases across diverse temporal and spatial scales may not always be preceded by critical slowing down. In this backdrop, an in-depth study of the underlying molecular mechanisms provides dynamic network biomarkers that can forecast potential critical transitions. We have put together the theory of complex diseases and resilience, and have discussed the need for advanced research in developing early warning signals in the field of medicine and health care. We conclude the review with a few open questions and prospects for research in this emerging field.
ABSTRACT
Two experiments evaluated the effects of corn residue harvest method on animal performance and diet digestibility. Experiment 1 was designed as a 2 × 2 + 1 factorial arrangement of ...treatments using 60 individually fed crossbred steers (280 kg SD 32 initial BW; n = 12). Factors were the corn residue harvest method (high-stem and conventional) and supplemental RUP at 2 concentrations (0 and 3.3% diet DM). A third harvest method (low-stem) was also evaluated, but only in diets containing supplemental RUP at 3.3% diet DM because of limitations in the amount of available low-stem residue. Therefore, the 3 harvest methods were compared only in diets containing supplemental RUP. In Exp. 2, 9 crossbred wethers were blocked by BW (42.4 kg SD 7 initial BW) and randomly assigned to diets containing corn residue harvested 1 of 3 ways (low-stem, high-stem, and conventional). In Exp. 1, steers fed the low-stem residue diet had greater ADG compared with the steers fed conventionally harvested corn residue (P = 0.03; 0.78 vs. 0.63 kg), whereas steers fed high-stem residue were intermediate (P > 0.17; 0.69 kg), not differing from either conventional or low-stem residues. Results from in vitro OM digestibility suggest that low-stem residue had the greatest (P < 0.01) amount of digestible OM compared with the other 2 residue harvest methods, which did not differ (P = 0.32; 55.0, 47.8, and 47.1% for low-stem, high-stem, and conventional residues, respectively). There were no differences in RUP content (40% of CP) and RUP digestibility (60%) among the 3 residues (P ≥ 0.35). No interactions were observed between harvest method and the addition of RUP (P ≥ 0.12). The addition of RUP tended to result in improved ADG (0.66 ± 0.07 vs. 0.58 ± 0.07 for supplemental RUP and no RUP, respectively; P = 0.08) and G:F (0.116 ± 0.006 vs. 0.095 ± 0.020 for supplemental RUP and no RUP, respectively; P = 0.02) compared with similar diets without the additional RUP. In Exp. 2, low-stem residue had greater DM and OM digestibility and DE (P < 0.01) than high-stem and conventional residues, which did not differ (P ≥ 0.63). Low-stem residue also had the greatest NDF digestibility (NDFD; P < 0.01), whereas high-stem residue had greater NDFD than conventional residue (P < 0.01). Digestible energy was greatest for low-stem residue (P < 0.05) and did not differ between high-stem and conventional residues (P = 0.50). Reducing the proportion of stem in the bale through changes in the harvest method increased the nutritive quality of corn residue.
This study uses enzymatic and mitochondrial genes to infer the relative importance of historical processes and contemporary hydrodynamic features on the observed patterns of genetic structure in ...subdivided populations of Pectinaria koreni (Polychaeta: Pectinariidae) along the coasts of Brittany and the English Channel. Nucleotide sequence variation of a 603-bp fragment of the mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene revealed a surprisingly deep phylogeographic break of about 16% divergence separating the Brittany and Channel populations, which coincides with a biogeographic boundary along the western coast of Brittany. Deep sequence divergence with fixed haplotype differences and the inversion of allele frequencies at two enzyme loci suggests the occurrence of potential cryptic or sibling species of P. koreni. The two clades showed opposite features. Channel populations exhibited bimodal match-mismatch curves due to two highly divergent haplotypes occurring at high frequencies and no overall heterozygote deficiencies at enzyme loci, suggesting respectively, a historic secondary contact between two differentiated populations followed by contemporary panmixia. On the contrary, Brittany populations displayed unimodal curves with low nucleotide diversity and highly significant heterozygote deficiencies, probably reminiscent of a recent population expansion and recolonisation of Brittany with contemporary admixture of divergent populations.
Using Pectinaria koreni as a biological model of larval dispersal, we coupled the analysis of differently evolving genetic markers (mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I and four microsatellite loci) to ...hydrodynamic modeling of larval transport in the English Channel. To determine the influence of historical and contemporary processes on the genetic structure of our study populations, genetic relationships between English Channel, Irish Sea, and southern North Sea populations were assessed in relation to the long-term pattern of marine currents and to postglacial colonization pathways. Although significant, low level of overall nuclear genetic differentiation was best explained by the recent origin of populations within the study area and the retention of ancestral polymorphism. Both genetic data sets suggest that two ancestral gene pools contributed to the origin of our study populations, and secondary contacts occurred in the English Channel and southern North Sea as a result of two migration routes around the British Isles. Although Irish Sea and Belgium populations appeared more recently connected, populations of the eastern English Channel were more isolated. English Channel patterns of connectivity indicated high dispersal and gene flow along the French coast, from Normandy to the southern North Sea. Despite significant genetic differentiation between both coasts, migration model selection favored cross-channel gene flow and long-distance migration following the coastlines. Our results highlight the influence of postglacial colonization on genetic patterns in the English Channel, and indicate that contemporary mesoscale connectivity inferred by hydrodynamic modeling cannot, alone, explain the present genetic structure of populations in this area.
The two brittle-stars Acrocnida brachiata (Montagu 1804) and A. spatulispina (Stöhr and Muths in J Mar Biol Assoc, 2009) exhibit strong spatial segregation along the coast of Brittany (France), the ...first being subtidally distributed relative to the other intertidal species. Despite a very high degree of mitochondrial DNA divergence, previous preliminary results hinted at the potential for hybridization to occur. Therefore, we specifically aim to determine local levels of hybridization between these two species and to investigate the relative roles of pre- and post- zygotic isolation processes acting to decrease local hybridization patterns. Mitochondrial DNA, allozymes and the Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 region of the ribosomal DNA were all used on 529 brittle-stars sampled locally in June and September 2005, among six stations in Douarnenez Bay, a site situated at the tip of Brittany. Only 2.6% of all samples analyzed were identified as potential hybrids. However, these were twice more frequent in June, just after the reproductive period, than in September after selective mortality acted to reduce the proportions of hybrids. In addition to the abrupt bathymetric segregation between the two species, spawning asynchrony also clearly restricts hybridization to low levels, which shows the importance of pre-zygotic mechanisms in maintaining reproductive isolation. Moreover, both limited hybridization events and adult mortalities following reproduction tend to generate local genetic differentiation at the intra-species level. On the contrary, the genetic structure is homogenized by migration of juveniles or adults and hybrids mortalities over the summer period.
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