Die Corona-Krise hat die deutsche Wirtschaft in die tiefste Rezession seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg gestürzt. Aufgrund der weltweiten Verbreitung sind Lieferketten gestört und der internationale Handel ...erheblich beeinträchtigt, was die exportabhängige deutsche Wirtschaft besonders stark trifft. Das von der Bundesregierung aufgelegte Programm zur Stützung der Wirtschaft wird von den Autoren in vielen Punkten kritisiert. Einige bewerten vor allem die temporäre Senkung der Umsatzsteuer als eine Maßnahme nach dem Gießkannenprinzip mit geringem Konjunkturimpuls. Sie sehen vor allem die Unternehmen als Leidtragende und Impulsgeber für eine Rückkehr zu einem Wachstum auf Vorkrisen-Niveau. Sie schlagen eine Verbesserung des steuerlichen Umgangs mit Verlusten und eine Senkung der Ertragsteuern vor. Andere legen den Schwerpunkt auf öffentliche Investitionen als Wachstumsmotor und fordern Zukunftsinvestitionen für eine innovative, digitale und klimaneutrale Wirtschaft.
This article summarises the results of a study on the Germany energy crisis and the need for an extension and modifications of the electricity price break. The study shows that the energy crisis led ...to a short-run output loss comparable to the output losses associated with the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the financial crisis in 2008/2009. In addition, real wage losses during the energy crisis are the largest losses on record. Finally, there is the risk of permanent economic damage leading to a period of economic stagnation. The extension and modification of the electricity price break until 2030 is an important policy instrument to help the Germany economy avoid economic stagnation. The argument in favour of such price controls is that the energy crisis has pushed the electricity price above its long-run equilibrium value.economic stagnation. The economiy argument in favor of such price controls is that the energy crisis has pushed the electricity price above its long-run equilibrium value.
This paper considers a class of growth models with idiosyncratic human capital risk and private information about individual effort choices (moral hazard). Households are infinitely-lived and have ...preferences that allow for a time-additive expected utility representation with a one-period utility function that is additive over consumption and effort as well as logarithmic over consumption. Human capital investment is risky due to idiosyncratic shocks that follow a Markov process with transition probabilities that depend on effort choices. The production process is represented by an aggregate production function that uses physical capital and human capital as input factors. We show that constrained optimal allocations are simple in the sense that individual effort levels and individual consumption growth rates are history-independent. Further, constrained optimal allocations are the solutions to a recursive social planner problem that is simple in the sense that exogenous shocks are the only state variables. We also show that constrained optimal allocations can be decentralized as competitive equilibrium allocations of a market economy with a simple tax- and transfer scheme. Finally, it is always optimal to subsidize human capital investment in the market economy.
This article summarises the results of a study on the Germany energy crisis and the need for an extension and modificationsof the electricity price break. The study shows that the energy crisis led ...to a short-run output loss comparable to the output losses as-sociated with the COVID-19 crisis in 2020 and the financial crisis in 2008/2009. In addition, real wage losses during the energy crisisare the largest losses on record. Finally, there is the risk of permanent economic damage leading to a period of economic stagnation.The extension and modification of the electricity price break until 2030 is an important policy instrument to help the Germany economyavoid economic stagnation. The argument in favour of such price controls is that the energy crisis has pushed the electricity price aboveits long-run equilibrium value.economic stagnation. The economiy argument in favor of such price controls is that the energy crisis haspushed the electricity price above its long-run equilibrium value.
In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the ...economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden import stop on the industry sectors using natural gas and the whole economy. The model should take into account the limited short-run substitution possibilities of the industry sectors using natural gas (chemical industry) and the value chain linkages of these sectors with all other sectors of the economy. The recent analysis by Bachmann et al. (2022) does not satisfy these two methodological conditions and the results should be interpreted accordingly.
In 2003-05 the German government implemented a number of far-reaching labor market reforms y the so-called Hartz reforms. At the heart of the reform package was the Hartz IV law, which resulted in a ...significant cut in the unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed. The paper develops a macroeconomic model with search and incomplete markets, calibrates the model economy to German data and institutions, and uses the calibrated model economy to simulate the effects of the Hartz reforms, and in particular Hartz IV, on the German labor market. The paper finds that the Hartz IV reform reduced the noncyclical unemployment rate in Germany by 1.4 percentage points. Employed workers benefited from the Hartz IV reform in welfare terms, but unemployed workers lost. It further finds that the Hartz I—III reforms reduced the noncyclical unemployment rate in Germany by 1.5 percentage points. Finally, the authors' analysis suggests that the Hartz reforms contributed to the good performance of the German labor market during the Great Recession.
Abstract In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas ...for the economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden import stop on the industry sectors using natural gas and the whole economy. The model should take into account the limited short-run substitution possibilities of the industry sectors using natural gas (chemical industry) and the value chain linkages of these sectors with all other sectors of the economy. The recent analysis by Bachmann et al. (2022) does not satisfy these two methodological conditions and the results should be interpreted accordingly.
In this essay, I outline a method to compute the economic impact of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia. First, I estimate the reduction in the short-run supply of natural gas for the ...economy and the industry sector. Second, I use model simulations to analyse the effect of a sudden import stop on the industry sectors using natural gas and the whole economy. The model should take into account the limited short-run substitution possibilities of the industry sectors using natural gas (chemical industry) and the value chain linkages of these sectors with all other sectors of the economy. The recent analysis by Bachmann et al. (2022) does not satisfy these two methodological conditions and the results should be interpreted accordingly.
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