The main scope of this research was to develop and apply new methodology for energy prediction during a long-term period, based on the logarithmic relationship between electricity per capita and GDP ...per capita. This relationship was proven to be valid until 1989. It contains changeable energy and financial indicators and a dynamic rate of growth K, in the form of hyperbolic curves. With a range of slopes from 0.1 to 6, it enables a new economic classification of countries. Further research of this method, called IKoMet, has made the application of this relationship for future periods possible through the deduction of new energy and financial indicators. It was first applied to Italy, by the determination of indicators for a prediction after 1990. The results show that energy growth in the first period was more than ten times faster in comparison to the following period, while financial growth was almost twice as large in the first period. This procedure was also successfully applied for Switzerland, thus it can be concluded that IKoMet could generally be used for long-term energy prediction.
•Electricity and economic growth are related according to a new relationship.•The methodology, called IKoMet, enables accurate predictions for national energy strategies.•The development of new energy and financial indicators enable long-term forecasting.•All countries are economically classified according to a new hyperbolic constant.•A new ratio of growth between the gross domestic product and energy is developed.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) use as a fuel in road and maritime traffic has increased rapidly, and it is slowly entering railroad traffic as well. The trend was pushed by the state administrations of ...mainly EU countries and international organizations seeing LNG as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative to diesel. Different infrastructural projects for the widespread use of LNG in transport have been launched around the world. The main goal of this paper was to analyze use of LNG as a fuel for heavy trucks. Different aspects of LNG chain were analyzed along with economical and ecological benefits of LNG application. Filling stations network for LNG were described for the purpose of comparative analysis of diesel and LNG heavy trucks. Conclusion has shown that using LNG as propellant fuel has numerous advantages over the use of conventional fuels. The higher initial investment of the LNG road vehicles could be amortized in their lifetime use, and in the long-term they are more affordable than the classic diesel vehicles. In addition to cost-effectiveness, LNG road vehicles reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, the environmental goals in transport, not only of the member states but worldwide, could not be met without LNG in heavy truck traffic.
The main objective of the paper was comparative analyses of natural gas quantities delivered through the existing pipeline capacities in the last decade and new pipeline capacities for the prediction ...of possible future flows of gas import to Europe. Changes in physical flows have been influenced by European energy strategies that became green oriented resulting with a high amount of non-utilized transmission capacities. The research findings have shown that there is a significant decrease observed in transit of Russian gas through Ukraine in 2020 than previously. Concerning the high increase of LNG import to Europe in the same year, the start of operation of TurkStream, planned start of operation of Nord stream 2, authors project the gradual decrease of transit of Russian gas through Ukraine until the year 2025 with the total stop of transit of Russian gas until the year 2030. The change of supply routes will be also under the economic influence of low gas prices and coal and gas fuel switch until 2030 in the West EU, and after 2030 in the South Eastern European region. In the short-term period transit system for natural gas from Russia via Ukraine will be necessary for supplementing coal with natural gas in the energy mix.
The urgent need for a significant reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions indicates that the change in the world’s energy mix is inevitable. In the power production sector, this would be ...achieved through decarbonization with renewables, and within the transport sector, this would be achieved by switching to alternative fuels and electric vehicles. However, this transition is neither fast nor cheap, and it will be gradual. The main goal of this article is to propose a feasible change in the present energy mix and to compare natural gas with other fuels used in power production and transport. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of the current system (traditional fossil fuels) and the potential future system (higher share of natural gas) in energy generation and transport were identified, and the influence of recent global trends was analyzed. Natural gas seems to be a viable solution that can help in the transition to a zero-carbon-emissions society.
The EU considers carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology as an option for achieving climate goals, but its cost remains appreciable. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to investigate the ...implementation of a ton-based incentive system for CCS in the EU using Croatia as an example based on an analysis of the existing legislative framework in the EU and relevant tax credit provisions in the USA. A novel methodology for the design of the incentive system is presented in the form of partial allocation of the state’s auction revenues from the EU emissions trading system (ETS) into the CCS fund for five years. The CCS fund assets then incentivize the capture site for 10 years. The incentives are determined for each emitter in cement, electricity, paper and pulp, glass, oil refining, and petrochemical sectors based on varying European Union allowance (EUA) prices, CCS fund sizes, and CO2 emission scenarios. In addition to designing the methodology, a novel method for forecasting CO2 emissions is applied using geometric Brownian motion. The calculated incentives are categorized as underperforming, optimal, or overperforming, with upper and lower limits set to 80 and 10 EUR/t. The results are optimistic, since all sectors can be efficiently incentivized within the defined boundaries, meaning that the incentive system can be applied to all member states. The contracting of the incentives is proposed through carbon contracts for difference to avoid irregularities. Also, regulatory amendments are proposed so that emitters with emissions higher than 100 kt would have to consider CCS. Finally, the contributions are presented by proving the feasibility of the incentive system together with demonstrating its applicability to all member states.
This paper analyses gas consumption in hotels on the Adriatic coast, comparing data on natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption by hotel size. The research hypothesis is that by ...switching from LPG to natural gas, not only can a reduction in emissions be achieved in the hospitality industry, but there are also significant economic benefits. The research objectives included a regression analysis for various factors affecting gas consumption. The analysis showed a medium–strong relationship between the variables, which is a novelty for energy trends in the hospitality sector. By converting from heating oil to natural gas, hotels can achieve significant financial savings. It was also calculated that this would reduce the total energy consumption costs. Measures taken by the hospitality industry will have a positive impact on guest perception and could be used as a promotional tool under the “green hospitality” label.
•Enhanced recovery and CO2 retention are studied in a high CO2 content gas reservoir•Later EGR start results in higher CO2 retention•Optimal CO2 injection duration during CO2-Enhanced Gas Recovery is ...around one year•Depending on the chosen timing for CO2 injection, EGR can be carbon-negative
Benefits of CO2 injection into a gas-condensate reservoir were examined based on a real-field data. The observed natural gas reservoir has high content of CO2, therefore it is desirable to inject the produced CO2 back to the reservoir in order to reduce the emissions at the natural gas processing plant and possibly increase hydrocarbon production. Simulation was made as to compare hydrocarbons production with and without CO2 injection. Since the CO2 source is the reservoir itself, CO2 injection is limited by the produced gas quantities. Investments in low-risk projects on already producing natural gas fields can be feasible compared to investments in completely new and high-risk/high-gain projects, as the highest storability, and additional recovery of hydrocarbon part of the gas is achieved near the end of production. As in late production periods the process can be carbon-negative, i.e., more CO2 is injected than produced, such an enhanced gas recovery scheme can be considered as an advantageous preliminary step before converting the reservoir to CO2 storage facility.
With the end of economic production in sight, the oil and gas industry is preparing for the decommissioning of the offshore facilities. Beside of removing the infrastructure, there are numerous ...possibilities for its future use. Paper analyses possible use of offshore infrastructure for blue energy production from wind. The conversion of excess electricity into chemical energy, which can easily be stored, can be achieved using P2G (Power-to-Gas) technologies. Chemical conversion units performing a balancing for the power system and transformers needed for electricity transportation from offshore wind farms can be built on oil and gas platforms. The main contribution of the paper, based on a case study of the Northern Adriatic, includes hydrocarbon production prediction, electricity generation and hydrogen production based on wind potential calculation and synthetic natural gas production analysis. Energy production comparison of different technologies and conversion efficiencies have been given. Authors found that the most beneficial reuse option for offshore facilities is electricity generation from wind. Paper concludes that it is not likely that blue energy will match current hydrocarbon production, but it suggests postponing the decommissioning for the possibility of the blue energy production for which further detailed case by case economic analysis will be needed.
Display omitted
•Decline in natural gas production has been shown for the Northern Adriatic gas fields.•Possible reuse options for offshore oil and natural gas infrastructure have been discussed.•Analysis of blue energy production potential have been conducted.•Chemical energy storage utilization has been investigated.•Energy flows of various scenarios have been calculated and compared.
The development of gas smart meters has enabled the collection of data on daily natural gas consumption which can be used to develop and improve methods and models for natural gas consumption ...forecasting. This paper presents the development of a model for the short-term forecasting of total natural gas consumption, which is applicable in different distribution areas where smart meters are installed in large numbers. The advantages of this model are the use of only two input parameters (daily natural gas consumption and average daily temperature), forecasting the total consumption in the determined area by analyzing the consumption data of less than 10% of the total consumers as well as robustness to consumer types. Daily natural gas consumption data collected from the more than 3300 gas smart meters over a period of six months was used for the determination of correlations between lognormal distribution variables and temperature. The defined correlations between distribution variables and temperature were used for upscaling consumption to a specific number of final consumers, i.e., to obtain the total consumption of natural gas in the observed area. Best results were achieved using the “two-day rolling average temperature” in the consumption scenario up to 250 m3 per day (MAPE was 7.26%). When compared to using “average temperature” as an input parameter, “two-day rolling average temperature” and “shaving peaks temperature” produced better results due to the mitigated impact of sudden temperature changes that significantly affected the simulated consumption in the model while the actual consumption is a little more inert. Also, consumption scenarios up to 250 m3 can be considered the most representative for forecasting total natural gas consumption since it achieved the best results.
•Collection of data on daily consumption of natural gas from more than 3300 users.•Filtering and processing of collected data for the purpose of better forecasting.•Determining the statistical distribution of the collected consumption data.•Development of a model for forecasting short-term natural gas consumption.•Determining the impact of input data on forecasting accuracy.
PDF
