Various factors influence wildfire probability, including land use/land cover (LULC), fuel types, and their moisture content, meteorological conditions, and terrain characteristics. The Adriatic Sea ...coastal area in Croatia has a long record of devastating wildfires that have caused severe ecological and economic damages as well as the loss of human lives. Assessing the conditions favorable for wildfires and the possible damages are crucial in fire risk management. Adriatic settlements and ecosystems are highly vulnerable, especially during summer, when the pressure from tourist migration is the highest. However, available fire risk models designed to fit the macro-scale level of assessment cannot provide information detailed enough to meet the decision-making conditions at the local level. This paper describes a model designed to assess wildfire risks at the meso-scale, focusing on environmental and anthropogenic descriptors derived from moderate- to high-resolution remote sensing data (Sentinel-2), Copernicus Land Monitoring Service datasets, and other open sources. Risk indices were integrated using the multi-criteria decision analysis method, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), in a GIS environment. The model was tested in three coastal catchments, each having recently experienced severe fire events. The approach successfully identified zones at risk and the level of risk, depending on the various environmental and anthropogenic conditions.
Irrigated agriculture has considerable impacts on the environment. To minimize negative effects and maximize positive effects, it is necessary to provide comprehensive analyses beyond the strictly ...technical domain. In this study, we apply a methodology for determining priorities in implementing irrigation plans using multi-criteria analysis methods on a specific case study area in the sub-catchment area of the Orljava River in Požega–Slavonia County, Croatia. Five potential irrigation areas (Orljava–Londža, Pleternica, Ovčare, Treštanovci, and Venje–Hrnjevac) were analyzed according to five selected criteria: environmental protection, water-related (four sub-criteria), social, economic, and time criteria with different criteria importance (weight). The aim of this study was to confirm the adequacy of using six multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods (mostly used: PROMETHEE, AHP, ELECTRE TRI, and the less used: DEXi, PRIME, and PCA) in determining priorities for fulfilling irrigation plans, present models for preparation of the input data, apply certain methods, and compare the results on the selected case study area. The methods’ adequacy was confirmed during the research. Five of the six MCA methods identified the Ovčare area as the most appropriate for irrigation development (i.e., it has priority in implementing the irrigation plan). According to one (AHP) of the six methods, Orljava–Londža has more advantages over other areas. All MCA methods, except PCA, chose Venje–Hrnjevac as the least advisable (last to be implemented) alternative. Conclusions from this research confirm findings from recently published research regarding the application of MCA on water management problems.
River water resources provide a wide range of necessary ecosystem services, including regulating, provisioning, supporting and cultural services. Ecosystem services are linked to an appropriate level ...of functionality of river water resource processes, which can be connected with river basin environmental objectives. Environmental objectives can be achieved only if appropriate flow and sediment regimes and related river morphology quality are guaranteed. The obligation to define environmental flow (E-flow) in the European Union Water Framework Directive European (WFD) is not explicit, and the implementation of the WFD is more focused on water quality. Considering the specific climatic, hydrographic and hydrological conditions and the definition of E-flow, each EU country has developed procedures for their investigation and determination. In the Republic of Croatia, no methodology has been elaborated, nor is there any legal regulation to define E-flow downstream of a dam or water intake site. This paper presents the significant pressures that have affected the transboundary rural Sutla River basin between Croatia and Slovenia. These pressures can cause changes in the hydrological regime and biological elements of water quality. The holistic approach defines the E-flow for a profile on the Sutla River by linking hydrological, morphological, and ecological characteristics based on the exploration of the Sutla River and its biological communities. The full implementation of a holistic approach and the transition to Level III of the E-flow definition requires the enhancement of exploratory hydrological and biological monitoring that enables the use of habitat modelling. Doi: 10.28991/cej-2020-03091611 Full Text: PDF
This paper analyses the possibilities of improving the precision of, and obtaining better, drainage density (Dd) input data for the Erosion Potential Method (EPM). This method is used for erosion ...assessments in karst areas that are characterised by torrential watercourses. The analysis is conducted in the Dubračina catchment in Croatia. Four different methodologies are used to derive a Dd map. The approaches use different assumptions and allow different spatial variability. The first two are commonly applied in the EPM. The Dd in the first case scenario corresponds to very low Dd and is homogenous throughout the entire catchment. In the second case, Dd is calculated on the sub-catchment level and varies from very low to medium. The third and fourth case scenarios provide the most spatially variant maps. The output of the third case is the actual Dd based on a topographic map, and the fourth potential Dd is based on a river network map derived from a Lidar digital elevation model. The third and fourth case scenarios provide better spatial variability for the Dd parameter, and both case scenarios are considered appropriate input data for the EPM and an improvement of the accuracy and precision of the EPM.
In recent decades, various methods for erosion intensity and sediment production assessment have been developed. The necessity for better model performance has led to the more frequent application of ...the method sensitivity and uncertainty assessments in order to decrease errors that arise from the model concept and its main assumptions. The analysis presented in this paper refers to the application of the Gavrilović method (Erosion Potential Method), an empirical and semi-quantitative method that can estimate the amount of sediment production and sediment transport as well as the erosion intensity and indicate the areas potentially threatened by erosion. The emphasis in this paper is given upon the method sensitivity analysis that has not previously been conducted for the Gavrilović method. The sensitivity analysis was conducted for fourteen different parameters included in the method, all in relation to different model outputs. Each parameter was perceived and discussed individually in relation to its effect upon the method outputs, and ranked into categories depending on their influence on one or more model outputs. The objective of the analysis was to explore the constraints of the Gavrilović method and the method response to changes deriving from the each individual parameter in an attempt to provide a better understanding of the method, the weight and the contribution of each parameter in the overall method. The parameters that could potentially be used in future research, for method modification and calibration in areas with different catchment characteristics (e.g. climate, geological, etc.) were identified. The most sensitive model parameters resulting from conducted sensitivity analysis for the Gavrilović method are also those considered to be significant in the scientific literature on erosion. The Gavrilović method sensitivity analysis has been done on a case study for the Dubracina catchment area, Croatia.
The intensive use of soil and water resources results in a disbalance between the environmental and economic objectives of the river basin. The water quality management model supports good water ...status, especially downstream of dams and reservoirs, as in the case of the Sutla/Sotla river basin. This research aims to develop a new, improved integrated water quality management model of rural transboundary basins to achieve environmental objectives and protection of the Natura 2000 sites. The model uses river basin pressure analysis to assess the effects of climate and hydrological extreme impacts, and a programme of basic and supplementary measures. The impact assessment of BASE MODEL, PAST, and FUTURE scenarios was modelled using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) based on land use, climate and hydrological data, climate change, presence or lack of a reservoir, and municipal wastewater and agriculture measures. Eight future climate change scenarios were obtained with optimistic (RCP4.5) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) forecasts for two periods (2020–2050 and 2070–2100), both with and without a reservoir. The model shows that the most significant impacts on the waterbody come from the nutrients and sediment hotspots, also shows the risk of not achieving good water status, and water eutrophication risk. The modelled average annual increase in sediment is from 4 to 25% and in total N from 1 to 8%, while the change in total P is from −5 to 6%. The conducted analysis provides a base for the selection of tailor-made measures from the catalogue of the supplementary measures that will be outlined in future research.
The main focus in this article is given on the erosion potential method (EPM) modification. The aim was to provide a seasonal assessment, in addition to annual erosion assessment for the case study ...Dubračina catchment, Croatia. Seasonal assessment of erosion processes in the catchment will contribute to planning strategies that would benefit local community and enable the more appropriate and timely definition of erosion mitigation and protection measures. Original EPM was used for erosion intensity and sediment production assessment for two time periods: the past and the present time. The overall classification of erosion intensity categorises the erosion processes in the catchment as slight, although excessive erosion processes are present in some areas. For the method modification purpose, three main model parameters were changed: precipitation, soil protection coefficient and temperature. The greatest soil loss was found to occur in autumn, followed by summer, spring and winter period. The results indicated good erosion intensity and soil loss approximation obtained with the modified EPM and 13% soil loss deviation in comparison to the results obtained with original EPM. The erosion intensity, land cover map for both the present time and summer season and soil surface change over a two-year time period were verified.
Spatial and traffic planning is important in order to achieve a quality, safe, functional, and integrated urban environment. Different tools and expert models were developed that are aimed at a more ...objective view of the consequences of reconstruction in different spatial and temporal ranges while respecting selection criteria. In this paper we analyze the application of the multi-criteria analysis method when choosing sustainable traffic solutions in the center of a small town, in this case Belišće, Croatia. The goal of this paper is to examine the possibility of improving the methodology for selecting an optimal spatial–traffic solution by combining the quantifiable results of the traffic microsimulation and the method of multi-criteria optimization. Socially sensitive design should include psychological and social evaluation criteria that are included in this paper as qualitative spatial–urban criteria. In the optimization process, different stakeholder groups (experts, students, and citizens) were actively involved in evaluating the importance of selected criteria. The analysis of stakeholders’ survey results showed statistically significant differences in criteria preference among three groups. The AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) multi-criteria analysis method was used; a total of five criteria groups (functional, safety, economic, environmental, and spatial–urban) were developed, which contain 21 criteria and 7 sub-criteria; and the weights of criteria groups were varied based on stakeholders’ preferences. The application of the developed methodology enabled the selection of an optimal solution for the improvement of traffic conditions in a small city with the potential to also be applied to other types of traffic–spatial problems and assure sustainable traffic planning.
This paper analyses impacts of climate change and anthropogenic pressure on groundwater resources in the Mirna river catchment used for water supply in Northern Istria (Croatia) up to 2050. Using ...Regional Climate Models simulations and hydrologic model, the future average annual and the characteristic (in critical period) water resource availabilities were calculated. Current and five future water demand scenarios were analysed. Water Exploitation Index (WEI) and modified Characteristic Water Exploitation Index (CWEI) were calculated. In 2050, the analysed springs will be subject to climate change consequences, with more extreme changes and intense variations. The WEI for average conditions indicates little risk of unmet future water demand. Considering seasonal variability, the future CWEIs indicates strong risk for most future water demand scenarios and overexploitation for water demand increases over 20%. The 2012 drought, more extreme than any considered future scenario, was also examined.
This paper examines the performance of the Erosion Potential Method (EPM or Gavrilović) and the model response to input data variations caused by choosing different sources of information for the ...same parameter. The research presented addresses the input data uncertainty via an analysis of the two model input parameters (the soil protection coefficient and the soil erodibility coefficient). The parameter uncertainty analysis is performed following two different approaches: uncertainty analyses of both the selected sample size and the entire population are conducted for an erosion assessment case study of the Dubračina River catchment, Croatia. The analysis indicated that, when changing the data source, significant changes in the model outcome values can occur (up to 47% for this case study). Future method modifications should consider the mitigation of these two parameters by potentially making structural changes in the model and therefore moderating the effect.
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